Signals

NFL signals

Reading the day's flags…

Flag beats

Its closing-line value beats the baseline, by an anytime-valid test over 200+ graded firings.

Flag no edge yet

No edge shown yet: too few graded firings, or the gap could still be zero.

Flag below

Below the baseline: taking the best price on unflagged sides did better.

Fair · vs fair

The consensus line on the side, and what the best US-licensed price returns against the market makers' fair chance.

Prices: US-licensed books, as Kelly reads them. Records: Kelly's firing log, each firing graded at the price still at a US-licensed book one poll later, against Pinnacle's no-vig close (else the consensus), beside a baseline of unflagged sides at the same time before the start. A flag is a fact about the market, not a pick.