NFL playoff picture
The NFL playoff picture today: each conference's seven seeds with every tie-breaker applied, what each team has clinched, and Kelly's chances of making the playoffs, winning the division, the bye, the conference and the Super Bowl.
If the season ended today
AFC
- 1. BUF (6-1)99.0% to make it
- 2. DEN (7-2)96.1% to make it
- 3. JAX (6-2)98.0% to make it
- 4. PIT (6-2)73.1% to make it
- 5. KC (6-2)93.8% to make it
- 6. CIN (6-2)94.1% to make it
- 7. NE (5-4)60.1% to make it
In the hunt: HOU, BAL, CLE, LV, IND, NYJ, LAC, MIA, TEN
NFC
- 1. SF (7-1)96.3% to make it
- 2. MIN (6-1)81.7% to make it
- 3. NYG (5-2-1)58.6% to make it
- 4. CAR (3-5)34.4% to make it
- 5. CHI (7-2)80.0% to make it
- 6. DET (6-2)88.6% to make it
- 7. GB (6-3)57.4% to make it
In the hunt: LA, SEA, DAL, NO, TB, ATL, WAS, PHI, ARI
Week 9 · 10,000 simulated seasons · 137 games left · as of Nov 9, 5:53 AM ET · clinched and eliminated are checked against every remaining outcome, not simulated
Every team (32)
Showing (32) of (32) · Now · Sorted by Conf, low to high, then Seed now, low to high, then Playoff %, high to low · Compared with every row on the board (32)
| Team | Conf | Seed now | W-L | Playoff % | Division % | Bye % | Clinched | This week | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | AFC | 1 | 6-1 | 99% | 91.5% | 37% | — | @MIN | 1.6 |
| Denver Broncos | AFC | 2 | 7-2 | 96.1% | 59.2% | 21.4% | — | LV | 6.6 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | 3 | 6-2 | 98% | 91.9% | 16% | — | @TEN | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | 4 | 6-2 | 73.1% | 25.9% | 2.9% | — | @CIN | 19.7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | 5 | 6-2 | 93.8% | 40% | 10.3% | — | @ATL | 7.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | 6 | 6-2 | 94.1% | 67.9% | 11.6% | — | PIT | 8.6 |
| New England Patriots | AFC | 7 | 5-4 | 60.1% | 8.5% | 0.7% | — | @DET | 21.9 |
| Houston Texans | AFC | — | 3-5 | 35.4% | 7.9% | 0.1% | — | @CLE | 28.7 |
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC | — | 4-5 | 22.6% | 3.4% | 0.1% | — | LAC | 15.2 |
| Cleveland Browns | AFC | — | 5-4 | 17.9% | 2.7% | 0.1% | — | HOU | 22.4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | AFC | — | 4-5 | 9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | SEA | 8.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | AFC | — | 2-7 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | MIA | 0.7 |
| New York Jets | AFC | — | 2-7 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | BUF | 0.7 |
| Miami Dolphins | AFC | — | 1-7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | @IND | 0.1 |
| Tennessee Titans | AFC | — | 1-7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | JAX | 0.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | AFC | — | 0-8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | @BAL | 0.1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC | 1 | 7-1 | 96.2% | 84.8% | 43.1% | — | @DAL | 5.2 |
| Minnesota Vikings | NFC | 2 | 6-1 | 81.7% | 27.2% | 14.4% | — | BUF | 11.1 |
| New York Giants | NFC | 3 | 5-2-1 | 58.6% | 57% | 0.7% | — | WAS | 27.7 |
| Carolina Panthers | NFC | 4 | 3-5 | 34.4% | 34.1% | 0.1% | — | @NO | 27.6 |
| Chicago Bears | NFC | 5 | 7-2 | 80% | 20.8% | 11.5% | — | NO | 17.8 |
| Detroit Lions | NFC | 6 | 6-2 | 88.6% | 43.6% | 24.1% | — | NE | 9.2 |
| Green Bay Packers | NFC | 7 | 6-3 | 57.4% | 8.4% | 3% | — | MIN | 30.9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | NFC | — | 5-4 | 46.5% | 6.6% | 1.8% | — | @ARI | 25.3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | NFC | — | 5-4 | 44% | 8.6% | 1.3% | — | @LV | 18.3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | NFC | — | 4-5 | 38.5% | 36.6% | 0.1% | — | SF | 20.7 |
| New Orleans Saints | NFC | — | 3-5 | 26.7% | 26.3% | 0.1% | — | CAR | 24.2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | — | 3-6 | 22.3% | 22.2% | 0.1% | — | @DET | 14.6 |
| Atlanta Falcons | NFC | — | 3-6 | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.1% | — | KC | 12.2 |
| Washington Commanders | NFC | — | 2-5-1 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 0.1% | — | @NYG | 10.6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | — | 2-7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | — | PIT | 1.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals | NFC | — | 3-6 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | LA | 1.9 |
| NFL average | — | 4 | — | 43.8% | 25% | 6.3% | — | — | 12.7 |
Data as of 2026-11-09 10:53 UTCSource: nflverse data (CC BY 4.0); Kelly's season simulation, every game priced from the spreads10000 simulated seasons from week 9, 137 games left; clinched and eliminated are checked against every outcome, not simulated.