Super Bowl odds
Favourite: San Francisco 49ers at +568 (13.3% with the margin removed). Next: Buffalo Bills at +585 (12.9% with the margin removed), Chicago Bears at +758 (10.2% with the margin removed). 7 books; board hold 16.3%; as of Nov 9, 10:38 AM ET.
Kelly % is Kelly's own chance from its season simulation, shown on askkelly.ai only. Not validated: Kelly's futures chances have not passed its edge gate, so read the raw edge beside the edge shrunk halfway toward the market.
Super Bowl winner odds (32)
Showing (32) of (32) · Now · Sorted by No-vig %, high to low · Compared with every row on the board (32)
| Selection | Odds | No-vig % | Implied % | 7-day move | 30-day move | Kelly % | Shrunk edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 568 | 13.3% | 15% | 0.5 | — | 13.4% | -1.6 |
| Buffalo Bills | 585 | 12.9% | 14.6% | 2 | — | 14.8% | -0.7 |
| Chicago Bears | 758 | 10.2% | 11.7% | 4.9 | — | 4.5% | -4.3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 886 | 8.8% | 10.1% | 3 | — | 11% | -0.3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1107 | 7.1% | 8.3% | -2.4 | — | 7% | -1.2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1194 | 6.6% | 7.7% | -1.1 | — | 4.6% | -2.1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1291 | 6.1% | 7.2% | 2.3 | — | 7.4% | -0.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1642 | 4.8% | 5.7% | -1 | — | 4% | -1.3 |
| Detroit Lions | 1648 | 4.8% | 5.7% | 1.5 | — | 8.2% | 0.8 |
| Denver Broncos | 1683 | 4.7% | 5.6% | 0.6 | — | 7.6% | 0.5 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2277 | 3.5% | 4.2% | 1.1 | — | 2.4% | -1.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2429 | 3.2% | 4% | -0.9 | — | 4.4% | -0.1 |
| New England Patriots | 2858 | 2.7% | 3.4% | -1.2 | — | 2% | -1 |
| Houston Texans | 3918 | 2% | 2.5% | -0.6 | — | 1.8% | -0.6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4115 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.1 | — | 1.7% | -0.6 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5854 | 1.3% | 1.7% | -0.9 | — | 2% | -0 |
| New York Giants | 6263 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.7 | — | 0.6% | -0.7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7088 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6 | — | 0.4% | -0.7 |
| Carolina Panthers | 10,439 | 0.7% | 0.9% | -0.9 | — | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 11,541 | 0.6% | 0.9% | -0.2 | — | 0.3% | -0.4 |
| Washington Commanders | 15,794 | 0.5% | 0.6% | -0.1 | — | 0.1% | -0.4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 16,312 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.3 | — | 0.1% | -0.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 16,442 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -7.4 | — | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 17,401 | 0.4% | 0.6% | -0.1 | — | 0.4% | -0.2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 20,752 | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0 | — | 0.1% | -0.3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 80,012 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 87,963 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 92,312 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.6 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 104,352 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| New York Jets | 109,099 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 120,012 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 125,019 | 0% | 0.1% | 0 | — | 0.1% | -0 |
| Board average | — | 3.1% | 3.7% | 0 | — | 3.2% | -0.5 |
Data as of 2026-11-09 15:38 UTCSource: Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; margin removed per book, then averaged; Kelly's season simulation, every game priced from the spreads; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0)7 books; board hold 16.3%.Kelly's chance is not validated (D18, not_validated); edges shown raw and shrunk halfway to the market (F10.19), 32 markets scanned.