NFL betting trends
How NFL favourites, underdogs, home and road teams and overs have done against the closing line since 1999: each trend with its record, 95% range and seasons above 50%, favourites at every closing spread and the key numbers.
From 2019 through 2025, NFL favourites covered 48.9% (388-405-7) of decided regular-season games against the closing spread, home underdogs 50.9% (163-157-3) and overs 52.4% (415-377-8). In 2026, favourites are 67-63-7 and overs 71-65-1.
League trends (25)
Each trend counts one side of each game against the closing line, with its 95% range and the seasons it won more than it lost, so one hot season can't pass for a trend. Build your own to count any side by one or two conditions.
Showing (25) of (25) · Totals · Compared with these 25 trends
| Trend | Market | G | Record | Win % | 95% range | vs 52.4% | Avg margin | Seasons above 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favourites and underdogs | ||||||||
| Favourites | Spread | 937 | 455-468-14 | 49.3% | 46.1 to 52.5 | -3.1 | 0.2 | 2 of 4 |
| Underdogs | Spread | 937 | 468-455-14 | 50.7% | 47.5 to 53.9 | -1.7 | -0.2 | 2 of 4 |
| Home and road | ||||||||
| Home teams | Spread | 915 | 443-459-13 | 49.1% | 45.9 to 52.4 | -3.3 | -0.2 | 1 of 4 |
| Road teams | Spread | 915 | 459-443-13 | 50.9% | 47.6 to 54.1 | -1.5 | 0.2 | 3 of 4 |
| Home favourites | Spread | 541 | 260-273-8 | 48.8% | 44.6 to 53.0 | -3.6 | 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Road favourites | Spread | 374 | 186-183-5 | 50.4% | 45.3 to 55.5 | -2 | 0.6 | 2 of 4 |
| Home underdogs | Spread | 374 | 183-186-5 | 49.6% | 44.5 to 54.7 | -2.8 | -0.6 | 2 of 4 |
| Road underdogs | Spread | 541 | 273-260-8 | 51.2% | 47.0 to 55.4 | -1.2 | -0 | 3 of 4 |
| By the favourite's closing spread | ||||||||
| Favoured by 2.5 or less | Spread | 214 | 104-110-0 | 48.6% | 42.0 to 55.3 | -3.8 | -1.9 | 1 of 4 |
| Favoured by 3 to 3.5 | Spread | 239 | 120-111-8 | 51.9% | 45.5 to 58.3 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 2 of 4 |
| Favoured by 4 to 6.5 | Spread | 222 | 112-109-1 | 50.7% | 44.1 to 57.2 | -1.7 | 1.4 | 2 of 4 |
| Favoured by 7 to 9.5 | Spread | 172 | 71-97-4 | 42.3% | 35.0 to 49.8 | -10.1 | 0.4 | 0 of 4 |
| Favoured by 10 or more | Spread | 90 | 48-41-1 | 53.9% | 43.6 to 63.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2 of 4 |
| Totals | ||||||||
| All games over the total | Total | 937 | 486-442-9 | 52.4% | 49.2 to 55.6 | 0 | 1.3 | 4 of 4 |
| Primetime games over | Total | 190 | 93-94-3 | 49.7% | 42.6 to 56.8 | -2.7 | 0.2 | 1 of 4 |
| Division games over | Total | 331 | 177-152-2 | 53.8% | 48.4 to 59.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 of 4 |
| Wind 15 mph or more, over | Total | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dome games over | Total | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Primetime | ||||||||
| Primetime favourites | Spread | 190 | 91-96-3 | 48.7% | 41.6 to 55.8 | -3.7 | -0.6 | 1 of 4 |
| Primetime underdogs | Spread | 190 | 96-91-3 | 51.3% | 44.2 to 58.4 | -1.1 | 0.6 | 3 of 4 |
| Situations | ||||||||
| Off a bye | Spread | 95 | 46-49-0 | 48.4% | 38.6 to 58.3 | -4 | 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Short week | Spread | 233 | 115-117-1 | 49.6% | 43.2 to 56.0 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 1 of 4 |
| After a straight-up loss | Spread | 870 | 427-430-13 | 49.8% | 46.5 to 53.2 | -2.6 | -0.5 | 3 of 4 |
| Division underdogs | Spread | 331 | 183-145-3 | 55.8% | 50.4 to 61.1 | 3.4 | -0.1 | 4 of 4 |
| Underdogs of 7 or more | Spread | 262 | 138-119-5 | 53.7% | 47.6 to 59.7 | 1.3 | -1 | 4 of 4 |
| Break-even at −110 | — | — | — | 52.4% | — | 0 | — | — |
Data as of 2026-11-14 12:50 UTCSource: nflverse schedules and scores (CC BY 4.0), graded by Kelly; Kelly's closing consensus of the books it tracks; before Kelly kept prices, nflverse's published close (CC BY 4.0), else The Odds API's closing snapshots; opening lines from Kelly's Monday sheet, else The Odds API's Monday snapshot (from August 2020); Venue roofs (nflverse, Wikidata) and the kickoff-hour forecast (Visual Crossing)2008 finals, 2015 to 2026, regular season; each graded against the closing line, pushes left out of every rate.A trend under 5 decided games is a small sample.
By the closing spread (28)
How favourites did at each closing number. Pushes matter on 3 and 7, so they get their own column.
Showing (28) of (28) · Totals · Sorted by line_value, low to high · Compared with these 28 spreads
| Favourite by | G | Fav SU | Fav win % | Fav ATS | Fav cover % | Push % | Avg cover margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | 0-1-0 | 0% | 0% | -4.5 |
| 1 | 36 | 15-21-0 | 41.7% | 15-21-0 | 41.7% | 0% | -3.6 |
| 1.5 | 67 | 37-30-0 | 55.2% | 34-33-0 | 50.7% | 0% | -1.6 |
| 2 | 13 | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 7-6-0 | 53.8% | 0% | -5.3 |
| 2.5 | 97 | 55-42-0 | 56.7% | 48-49-0 | 49.5% | 0% | -0.9 |
| 3 | 136 | 88-48-0 | 64.7% | 70-58-8 | 54.7% | 5.9% | 0.7 |
| 3.5 | 103 | 63-39-1 | 61.8% | 50-53-0 | 48.5% | 0% | -0.8 |
| 4 | 24 | 14-10-0 | 58.3% | 12-12-0 | 50% | 0% | 2.2 |
| 4.5 | 45 | 33-12-0 | 73.3% | 23-22-0 | 51.1% | 0% | 0.7 |
| 5 | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80% | 5-5-0 | 50% | 0% | 2.1 |
| 5.5 | 43 | 28-15-0 | 65.1% | 19-24-0 | 44.2% | 0% | -0.3 |
| 6 | 44 | 33-10-1 | 76.7% | 24-19-1 | 55.8% | 2.3% | 2.9 |
| 6.5 | 56 | 48-8-0 | 85.7% | 29-27-0 | 51.8% | 0% | 1.7 |
| 7 | 65 | 49-15-1 | 76.6% | 29-32-4 | 47.5% | 6.2% | 1 |
| 7.5 | 52 | 38-14-0 | 73.1% | 19-33-0 | 36.5% | 0% | 0.7 |
| 8 | 9 | 7-2-0 | 77.8% | 6-3-0 | 66.7% | 0% | 0.3 |
| 8.5 | 19 | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 4-15-0 | 21.1% | 0% | -6.5 |
| 9 | 11 | 10-1-0 | 90.9% | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 0% | 5.7 |
| 9.5 | 16 | 13-3-0 | 81.2% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 0% | 1.9 |
| 10 | 18 | 15-3-0 | 83.3% | 9-9-0 | 50% | 0% | 1.4 |
| 10.5 | 10 | 9-1-0 | 90% | 7-3-0 | 70% | 0% | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50% | 0-4-0 | 0% | 0% | -12.8 |
| 11.5 | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0-1-0 | 0% | 0% | -5.5 |
| 12 | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100% | 3-0-0 | 100% | 0% | 16.3 |
| 12.5 | 18 | 17-1-0 | 94.4% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 0% | 6.6 |
| 13 | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0% | -7 |
| 13.5 | 9 | 9-0-0 | 100% | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 0% | 0.3 |
| 14 or more | 25 | 23-2-0 | 92% | 12-12-1 | 50% | 4% | 1.1 |
| Break-even at −110 | — | — | — | — | 52.4% | — | — |
Data as of 2026-11-14 12:50 UTCSource: nflverse schedules and scores (CC BY 4.0), graded by Kelly; Kelly's closing consensus of the books it tracks; before Kelly kept prices, nflverse's published close (CC BY 4.0), else The Odds API's closing snapshots; opening lines from Kelly's Monday sheet, else The Odds API's Monday snapshot (from August 2020)2008 finals, 2015 to 2026, regular season; the favourite's side at the close, pick 'ems left out.
Key numbers (29)
How often finals land on each margin or combined score. The half point around 3 and 7 is worth the most.
Showing (29) of (29) · Totals · Sorted by Lands on, low to high · Compared with these 29 numbers
| Lands on | Games | Share % | Cumulative % | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 35 |
| 1 | 91 | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8 |
| 2 | 99 | 4.9% | 9.8% | 6 |
| 3 | 285 | 14.2% | 24% | 1 |
| 4 | 102 | 5.1% | 29.1% | 4 |
| 5 | 90 | 4.5% | 33.6% | 10 |
| 6 | 141 | 7% | 40.6% | 3 |
| 7 | 169 | 8.4% | 49% | 2 |
| 8 | 91 | 4.5% | 53.5% | 9 |
| 9 | 32 | 1.6% | 55.1% | 22 |
| 10 | 100 | 5% | 60.1% | 5 |
| 11 | 35 | 1.7% | 61.9% | 19 |
| 12 | 37 | 1.8% | 63.7% | 17 |
| 13 | 36 | 1.8% | 65.5% | 18 |
| 14 | 93 | 4.6% | 70.1% | 7 |
| 15 | 33 | 1.6% | 71.8% | 20 |
| 16 | 41 | 2% | 73.8% | 14 |
| 17 | 83 | 4.1% | 77.9% | 11 |
| 18 | 48 | 2.4% | 80.3% | 12 |
| 19 | 22 | 1.1% | 81.4% | 27 |
| 20 | 39 | 1.9% | 83.4% | 15 |
| 21 | 43 | 2.1% | 85.5% | 13 |
| 22 | 25 | 1.2% | 86.8% | 24 |
| 23 | 33 | 1.6% | 88.4% | 21 |
| 24 | 39 | 1.9% | 90.3% | 16 |
| 25 | 24 | 1.2% | 91.5% | 26 |
| 26 | 25 | 1.2% | 92.8% | 25 |
| 27 | 16 | 0.8% | 93.6% | 29 |
| 28 | 27 | 1.3% | 94.9% | 23 |
Data as of 2026-11-14 12:50 UTCSource: nflverse schedules and scores (CC BY 4.0), graded by Kelly; Kelly's closing consensus of the books it tracks; before Kelly kept prices, nflverse's published close (CC BY 4.0), else The Odds API's closing snapshots; opening lines from Kelly's Monday sheet, else The Odds API's Monday snapshot (from August 2020)2008 finals, 2015 to 2026, regular season; final margins 0 to 28 shown, every final counted in the shares.
Questions
Do NFL favourites or underdogs cover more often?
From 2019 through 2025, favourites covered 48.9% (388-405-7) of decided regular-season games and underdogs 51.1% (405-388-7), over 793 decisions.
How often do NFL games go over the total?
52.4% (415-377-8) of decided regular-season games from 2019 through 2025.
How often do home underdogs cover?
50.9% (163-157-3) from 2019 through 2025, regular season.
What cover rate breaks even?
52.4% at the standard −110 price: risk 110 to win 100, so 110 ÷ 210.
As of Nov 14, 7:50 AM ET · /nfl/betting-trends