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Kelly

Methodology

How Kelly computes each number it shows: the market consensus, closing lines, its own probability, signals, records and grades.

Updated November 6, 2026

The rules every number follows

  • Every number comes from the engine. The language model never does arithmetic.
  • Every number names its source and the time it was read.
  • A model earns the right to show an edge only by passing a test on data it has not seen.
  • Records keep their losses. Nothing is removed quietly.

How each number is computed

  • Market consensus and no-vig prices: Kelly's consensus is each book's price with the vig removed, averaged across the books quoting the same line, with sharper books weighted more.
  • Closing lines and CLV: The closing line is Kelly's consensus at the last book update before a game starts; closing line value is how much better a bet's line was than that close.
  • Kelly's probability and the edge gate: Kelly shows an edge only on market types whose model has passed an out-of-sample test, and only when the low end of its estimate clears the price's break-even.
  • Signals and their records: Each signal is graded against the closing line, and its status changes only when a pre-registered test, valid however often it is checked, says so.
  • Analyst picks and grades: Every published pick from the analysts Kelly follows is graded at 1 unit from final results, with closing line value and a test that only lets records that hold up across the field read as beating the market.
  • Prop hit rates and betting records: A player's hit rate counts his games over, under and push against a line; a team's betting record counts its finals against the closing lines.
  • How AI answers are written: Kelly's answers are written by a language model from numbers its engine computed; the model chooses the tools and writes the words, and never computes a number.
  • Fantasy scoring formats: Kelly scores every league by that league's own rules, from its own stat feed, and checks its finals against the platform's points every week.
  • Data sources and licences: The data behind Kelly's numbers, what each source is used for, and the credit each licence asks for.