Kelly's graded record
Every signal Kelly has fired, graded against the closing line, in every sport and market type, losing records included.
Kelly's signals have fired 960 times across 14 sports, and 582 of those firings are graded against the closing line. No signal has the 200 graded firings and the evidence a verdict needs yet, so every one reads "No edge shown yet".
Updated November 12, 2026 at 9:10 PM ET
Every signal, sport and market (76)
Showing (76) of (76) · Current rule versions · Compared with every flag and market cell that fired (76)
| Signal | Sport | Market | Status | Graded | Gap | Gap low | Gap high | Anytime p | To verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steam | BUNDESLIGA | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | BUNDESLIGA | Total | No edge shown yet | 2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | CRICKET_INTERNATIONAL_T20 | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 1 | 6.33 | — | — | 0.94 | 199 |
| Above fair price | CRICKET_INTERNATIONAL_T20 | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 1 | 6.33 | — | — | 0.94 | 199 |
| Steam | Premier League | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | 7.91 | — | — | 0.927 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | Premier League | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 4.48 | 2.24 | 10.21 | 0.858 | 196 |
| Steam | LALIGA | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | LALIGA | Total | No edge shown yet | 5 | 0.96 | -0.03 | 1.44 | 0.967 | 195 |
| Steam | LIGUE1 | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | -0.58 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | LIGUE1 | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 0.93 | -0.58 | 1.54 | 0.979 | 196 |
| Above fair price | LIGUE1 | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | -0.12 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | MLS | Total | No edge shown yet | 7 | 6.97 | 4.45 | 9.33 | 0.612 | 193 |
| Above fair price | MLS | Total | No edge shown yet | 3 | 6.14 | 1.37 | 8.82 | 0.836 | 197 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | MMA | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 3.08 | 0.49 | 4.55 | 0.885 | 196 |
| Above fair price | MMA | Total | No edge shown yet | 2 | 1.96 | -0.76 | 4.68 | 0.963 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | MMA | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 13 | 5.43 | 1.14 | 9.57 | 0.517 | 187 |
| Above fair price | MMA | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 9 | 8.4 | 5.13 | 12.49 | 0.481 | 191 |
| Steam | NBA | Spread | No edge shown yet | 9 | -0.83 | -1.82 | 0.14 | 0.994 | 191 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NBA | Spread | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Above fair price | NBA | Spread | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Analysts lean | NBA | Spread | No edge shown yet | 10 | -0.57 | -2.05 | 0.81 | 0.949 | 190 |
| Steam | NBA | Total | No edge shown yet | 5 | -1.61 | -3.49 | 0.2 | 1 | 195 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NBA | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Analysts lean | NBA | Total | No edge shown yet | 2 | 0.18 | -1.11 | 1.46 | 0.986 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NBA | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 35 | 2.28 | -0.57 | 5.03 | 0.398 | 165 |
| Above fair price | NBA | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 52 | 5.54 | 3.59 | 7.72 | 0.049 | 148 |
| Steam | College basketball | Spread | No edge shown yet | 12 | 0.11 | -1.07 | 1.4 | 0.96 | 188 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College basketball | Spread | No edge shown yet | 14 | 2.91 | 2.02 | 3.7 | 0.658 | 186 |
| Above fair price | College basketball | Spread | No edge shown yet | 4 | 3.51 | 1.83 | 5.06 | 0.87 | 196 |
| Analysts lean | College basketball | Spread | No edge shown yet | 11 | 0.33 | -1.07 | 2.13 | 0.925 | 189 |
| Families agree | College basketball | Spread | No edge shown yet | 1 | -2.31 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Steam | College basketball | Total | No edge shown yet | 3 | 0.43 | -1.7 | 2.56 | 0.988 | 197 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College basketball | Total | No edge shown yet | 5 | 3.42 | 2.13 | 4.68 | 0.844 | 195 |
| Above fair price | College basketball | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | 4.07 | — | — | 0.961 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College basketball | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 31 | 9.67 | 7.61 | 11.87 | 0.028 | 169 |
| Above fair price | College basketball | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 27 | 9.24 | 6.58 | 11.79 | 0.058 | 173 |
| Steam | College football | Spread | No edge shown yet | 2 | -0.22 | -0.25 | -0.2 | 1 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College football | Spread | No edge shown yet | 6 | 1.32 | -0.41 | 2.98 | 0.925 | 194 |
| Above fair price | College football | Spread | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Analysts lean | College football | Spread | No edge shown yet | 19 | 0.07 | -0.59 | 0.91 | 0.953 | 181 |
| Families agree | College football | Spread | No edge shown yet | 1 | -0.72 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Steam | College football | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 0.3 | -0.35 | 0.73 | 0.989 | 196 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College football | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Above fair price | College football | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Analysts lean | College football | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 1.74 | -0.36 | 4.02 | 0.934 | 196 |
| Families agree | College football | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | College football | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 30 | 1.72 | -1.41 | 4.86 | 0.621 | 170 |
| Above fair price | College football | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 34 | 4.23 | 2.38 | 6.33 | 0.28 | 166 |
| Analysts lean | College football | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 1 | -0.09 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Families agree | College football | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 1 | -0.09 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Steam | NFL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 2 | 3.18 | 1.14 | 5.22 | 0.939 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NFL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 16 | 2.57 | 0.47 | 4.95 | 0.652 | 184 |
| Above fair price | NFL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 4 | 3.5 | 0.07 | 6.92 | 0.873 | 196 |
| Analysts lean | NFL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 31 | -1.29 | -5.07 | 3.11 | 0.941 | 169 |
| Families agree | NFL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 5 | 4.39 | -1.12 | 10.06 | 0.812 | 195 |
| Steam | NFL | Total | No edge shown yet | 3 | 1.94 | 0.87 | 2.94 | 0.944 | 197 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NFL | Total | No edge shown yet | 8 | 1.73 | -1.04 | 4.08 | 0.832 | 192 |
| Analysts lean | NFL | Total | No edge shown yet | 32 | -2.47 | -5.17 | 0.52 | 0.965 | 168 |
| Families agree | NFL | Total | No edge shown yet | 2 | 2.47 | 2 | 2.94 | 0.952 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NFL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 17 | 6.74 | 3.68 | 11.01 | 0.328 | 183 |
| Above fair price | NFL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 16 | 5.26 | 3.08 | 7.71 | 0.439 | 184 |
| Analysts lean | NFL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 2 | 0.07 | -3.66 | 3.79 | 1 | 198 |
| Steam | NHL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 1 | 1.45 | — | — | 0.986 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NHL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 8 | 0.8 | -1.54 | 2.91 | 0.891 | 192 |
| Above fair price | NHL | Spread | No edge shown yet | 18 | 2.37 | 1.05 | 3.57 | 0.663 | 182 |
| Steam | NHL | Total | No edge shown yet | 0 | — | — | — | 1 | 200 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NHL | Total | No edge shown yet | 11 | 5.64 | 4.54 | 6.8 | 0.526 | 189 |
| Above fair price | NHL | Total | No edge shown yet | 4 | 6.58 | 5.09 | 8.12 | 0.771 | 196 |
| Analysts lean | NHL | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | -5.73 | — | — | 1 | 199 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | NHL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 6 | 2.82 | 2.43 | 3.11 | 0.844 | 194 |
| Above fair price | NHL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 3 | 3.17 | 2.72 | 3.83 | 0.91 | 197 |
| Analysts lean | NHL | Moneyline | No edge shown yet | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 1.72 | 0.966 | 196 |
| Steam | SERIEA | Total | No edge shown yet | 2 | 2.51 | -3.93 | 8.96 | 0.956 | 198 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | SERIEA | Total | No edge shown yet | 6 | 2.36 | 0.27 | 6.25 | 0.874 | 194 |
| Sharp vs retail gap | UCL | Total | No edge shown yet | 7 | 4.05 | -0.3 | 10.05 | 0.76 | 193 |
| Above fair price | UCL | Total | No edge shown yet | 1 | 14.67 | — | — | 0.872 | 199 |
Data as of 2026-11-13 02:10 UTCSource: Kelly's own grading: each firing's CLV at the fillable US-licensed price against the close (Pinnacle no-vig, else Kelly's consensus), minus the baseline of its sport, market type and time band76 of 76 cells have fewer than 200 graded firings, so they read No edge shown yet whatever their gap; their numbers are marked small.
How this record is kept
- Only live firings count: each flag's rule and threshold were set before any live firing was graded.
- Each firing is graded by its closing line value (CLV): how far the closing line moved its way, at a price a US bettor could take.
- Baseline CLV is the bar every flag is judged by: the average CLV of the best US price on every side of the same market type, sampled through the day and matched by time before kickoff. It is what a bettor would get by taking lines at random, so a flag earns credit only for CLV above it.
- The CLV vs baseline column is each flag's average CLV minus that baseline, with its 95% interval.
- A status needs at least 200 graded firings and a test that stays valid however often it is checked. Until then a flag reads "No edge shown yet".
- Losing records stay public. A changed rule is a new version with its own record.
The full method is on how Kelly grades its signals, and each row links to its own record with every firing.
Analyst records
The analysts Kelly follows are graded the same way, pick by pick, on Picks.