How Kelly grades its signals
Each signal is graded against the closing line, and its status changes only when a pre-registered test, valid however often it is checked, says so.
Updated November 6, 2026
What a signal is
A signal is a rule that flags a market when something happens: sharp books moving together (steam), a gap between sharp and retail prices, or analysts leaning one way. Each rule and its threshold were set before any live firing was graded. A changed threshold is a new rule version with its own record.
Grading
The first firing per flag, side and line is graded by how far the closing line moved its way. Repeats on the same number are counted, not graded. A new number is a new firing. Only live firings count toward the record; past seasons are shown apart as evidence.
Status
Each signal reads one of three statuses per sport and market type:
- Beats the baseline: at least 200 graded firings, and a sequential test at the 5% level shows the closing line moved its way more than chance allows.
- Below the baseline: the same test, the other way. These stay public.
- No edge shown yet: anything else, with its count and how many more graded firings it needs.
The test stays valid however often it is checked, so a lucky streak read on a good day cannot earn a status. Every record is on the signals pages.