Kelly's probability and when it shows an edge
Kelly shows an edge only on market types whose model has passed an out-of-sample test, and only when the low end of its estimate clears the price's break-even.
Updated November 6, 2026
The models
Spreads, moneylines and totals are priced from score models fitted to Kelly's own game history, key numbers included. Each model is checked against the closing market on games it was not fitted to.
The edge gate
Every market reads one of four labels:
- Edge: the model has passed its test, and even the 10th percentile of its estimate is above the break-even at the price.
- No edge: the estimate is below the break-even.
- No validated edge: the estimate may clear the break-even, but the model has not passed its test or its low end does not clear it.
- Market only: Kelly has no model for this market type yet, so it shows the market consensus alone.
Player props read "No validated edge" until Kelly has enough prop history to test a model.
Stakes
Kelly never sizes a stake on its own probability. Stake maths runs only on a probability and price you supply, pulled toward the no-vig market first, at a fraction of the Kelly criterion. Kelly's own probability shows only on askkelly.ai.