NFL player prop history

Across 4,443 graded player props in the 2026 season, overs hit 30.6% of decided games against each game's own closing line (1354-3075-14 over-under-push). Quarterback passing yards went over 52.8% of the time (47-42-0).

By market (35)

Each player-game is graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart. Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples. A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.

Showing (35) of (35) · Totals · Compared with every market with 10+ decided games (28)

Market	Position	Graded	O-U-P	Over %	Avg vs close	Avg close	Players
Quarterbacks
Passing yards	Quarterbacks	89	47-42-0	52.8%	-1.74	227.41	39
Passing TDs	Quarterbacks	90	37-53-0	41.1%	-0.01	1.42	39
Rushing yards	Quarterbacks	88	32-56-0	36.4%	-0.56	13.89	39
Anytime TD	Quarterbacks	90	13-77-0	14.4%	-0.36	0.5	39
Pass attempts	Quarterbacks	88	42-46-0	47.7%	-1.69	32.2	39
Completions	Quarterbacks	88	39-49-0	44.3%	-0.98	20.62	39
Interceptions thrown	Quarterbacks	88	49-39-0	55.7%	0.28	0.5	39
Pass + rush yards	Quarterbacks	42	22-20-0	52.4%	0.55	243.83	29
Rush attempts	Quarterbacks	33	6-27-0	18.2%	-1.23	4.77	18
Touchdowns	Quarterbacks	88	0-88-0	0%	-1.58	1.73	39
Running backs
Rushing yards	Running backs	177	90-87-0	50.8%	6.84	40.15	76
Receiving yards	Running backs	139	65-74-0	46.8%	4.71	13.9	62
Receptions	Running backs	135	64-71-0	47.4%	0.09	2.29	58
Anytime TD	Running backs	259	68-191-0	26.2%	-0.24	0.5	115
Rush attempts	Running backs	120	59-61-0	49.2%	0.25	12.87	58
Rush + receiving yards	Running backs	123	61-62-0	49.6%	4.46	65.74	59
Touchdowns	Running backs	253	6-247-0	2.4%	-1.57	1.89	115
Wide receivers
Rushing yards	Wide receivers	5	1-4-0	20%	0.5	3.1	4
Receiving yards	Wide receivers	268	125-143-0	46.6%	4.32	38.13	118
Receptions	Wide receivers	273	131-142-0	48%	-0.02	3.28	120
Anytime TD	Wide receivers	398	73-325-0	18.3%	-0.32	0.5	169
Rush + receiving yards	Wide receivers	5	1-4-0	20%	-3.7	62.9	4
Touchdowns	Wide receivers	388	3-385-0	0.8%	-1.6	1.8	167
Tight ends
Receiving yards	Tight ends	135	74-61-0	54.8%	7.31	28.25	59
Receptions	Tight ends	137	63-74-0	46%	0.16	2.95	60
Anytime TD	Tight ends	220	38-182-0	17.3%	-0.33	0.5	100
Touchdowns	Tight ends	215	4-211-0	1.9%	-1.57	1.77	100
Kickers
Field goals	Kickers	76	45-31-0	59.2%	0.32	1.5	32
Extra points	Kickers	64	29-35-0	45.3%	0.08	2.03	32
Defense
Receiving yards	Defense	2	0-2-0	0%	-11.5	11	1
Receptions	Defense	2	0-2-0	0%	-1	1.5	1
Anytime TD	Defense	2	0-2-0	0%	-0.5	0.5	1
Touchdowns	Defense	2	0-2-0	0%	-2	2	1
Sacks	Defense	260	67-179-14	27.2%	-0.13	0.5	141
Other
Sacks	Other	1	0-1-0	0%	-0.5	0.5	1
All markets	—	4,443	1354-3075-14	30.6%	0.53	16.64	598

Data as of 2026-11-13 01:15 UTCSource: Kelly's consensus closing line: each book's last price before the start, margin removed, then averaged; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0)Seasons 2026, regular season and playoffs; each player-game graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart.Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples and left out of the ranks.A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.