Arbitrage calculator
An arbitrage: the prices add up to 98.3%, so staking each side as below returns +1.7% on the total staked whichever side wins (any winner pays $1,017.44).
An arbitrage is a set of prices, usually at different books, whose implied chances add up to under 100%. Staking each side in proportion to its implied chance makes every outcome pay the same, for a profit whichever side wins. Type the best price on each side and the total you want to stake.
Is there an arbitrage?
- Arbitrage
- +1.7%
- profit on the total staked, whichever side wins
- The prices add up to
- 98.3%
- under 100% is an arbitrage
- Any winner pays
- $1,017.44
- +$17.44 either way
What to stake on each side
Books can void a bet placed at a wrong price, or limit accounts that take arbitrages, which leaves one side unhedged.
| Side | Price | Stake | Pays if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book A: BUF | +105 | $496.31 | $1,017.44 |
| Book B: KC | +102 | $503.69 | $1,017.44 |
Questions about the arbitrage calculator
How is an arbitrage worked out?
Add up the implied chance of the best price on every outcome. Under 100% is an arbitrage: stake each side its implied chance over that sum, times the total, and every outcome pays the total divided by the sum.
Why are arbitrages rare?
Each book’s prices carry its margin, so the best prices on both sides usually add up to over 100%. An arbitrage appears when books disagree, often for minutes, after a line moves at one book and not another.
What are the risks?
A book can void a bet placed at a price it calls an error, leaving the other side unhedged, and books often limit accounts that take arbitrages. Prices can also move between placing the first bet and the second.
What is dutching?
Dutching splits a stake across several outcomes of one market so each pays the same, the same maths as an arbitrage but usually at one book and on a few chosen outcomes rather than all of them.
Does it work for three-way markets?
Yes. Add a side for each outcome, such as home, draw and away, with the best price on each.