No-vig calculator
Without the vig, the fair prices are BUF +100 and KC +100. The book's hold is 4.55%: the book keeps $4.55 of every $100 bet.
The vig is the margin built into a market's prices: their implied chances add up to more than 100%. Taking it out gives each side's fair chance and fair price, and the amount over 100% gives the book's hold. Type every side of a market, two for a spread or moneyline or more for a futures board.
Without the vig
- Fair price, BUF
- +100
- 50.0% to win · 2.00 decimal · 1/1 fractional
- Fair price, KC
- +100
- 50.0% to win · 2.00 decimal · 1/1 fractional
- Hold
- 4.55%
- The book keeps $4.55 of every $100 bet
How the vig comes out
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| BUF: 1 ÷ 1.909 (−110) | 52.4% |
| KC: 1 ÷ 1.909 (−110) | 52.4% |
| Book sum: the chances added | 104.8% |
| Hold: 1 − 1 ÷ book sum | 4.55% |
| BUF: vig removed (power method) | 50.0% |
| KC: vig removed (power method) | 50.0% |
| BUF: fair price, 1 ÷ 50.0% | 2.000 = +100.0 |
| KC: fair price, 1 ÷ 50.0% | 2.000 = +100.0 |
If the line moves (5)
| BUF / KC | Fair BUF | Fair KC | BUF fair chance | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +100 / −120 | +110 | −110 | 47.7% | 4.35% |
| −105 / −115 | +105 | −105 | 48.8% | 4.50% |
| −110 / −110 | +100 | +100 | 50.0% | 4.55% |
| −115 / −105 | −105 | +105 | 51.2% | 4.50% |
| −120 / +100 | −110 | +110 | 52.3% | 4.35% |
Each side (2)
| Side | Price | Book's chance | Fair chance | Fair price | Fair decimal | Vig in the price | Cost per $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | −110 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +100.0 | 2.000 | 4.5% | $4.55 |
| KC | −110 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +100.0 | 2.000 | 4.5% | $4.55 |
Questions about the no-vig calculator
What does no-vig mean?
A no-vig price is a side's price with the book's margin taken out. The fair chances of every side add up to exactly 100%, so they are the market's own estimate of each side's chance.
What is the hold?
The hold is the share of every dollar bet the book keeps if it takes balanced action on every side. The higher the hold, the more each bet costs you.
How is the vig removed?
Each side's implied chance is scaled down until the chances add up to 100%; the steps table names the method used. Ask Kelly to compare the methods (multiplicative, additive, power and Shin) on the same market.
What is a fair price used for?
It is the benchmark for value: a price better than the fair price at another book, or better than your own estimate, is a bet worth a look. Line shoppers compare every book's price to it.
Does it work for futures and three-way markets?
Yes. Add a side for each outcome, such as home, draw and away, or every team on a futures board. The more sides, the bigger the hold usually is.