Cash-out calculator
The ticket is worth $1,226.36 now, and the offer of $1,150.00 is −$76.36 against fair value (6.2% cut); hedging at the other side’s price fixes $1,186.96 either way instead.
A ticket is worth what it returns times its fair chance of winning now. Kelly takes that chance from both sides’ prices now with the vig removed, sets the book’s offer against it, and shows what an equal-profit hedge at the other side’s price would fix instead. Type your ticket, the offer and the prices now.
- Fair value
- $1,226.36
- the ticket’s return at its fair 58.4% chance now, the market’s no-vig chance
- The offer
- $1,150.00
- −$76.36 against fair value (6.2% cut)
- Hedging fixes
- $1,186.96
- either way, staking the equal-profit hedge at the other side’s price
- The offer against hedging
- −$36.96
- the offer minus what the hedge fixes
- The ticket returns
- $2,100.00
- if it wins and you keep it
Questions about the cash-out calculator
How do sportsbooks work out a cash-out offer?
From the ticket’s value at their current prices, less a cut. The cut is why an offer usually sits below the ticket’s fair value; the card above shows how far below, in dollars and as a share.
Is it better to cash out or hedge?
Compare the offer with what an equal-profit hedge fixes at the other side’s price, ideally the best price at any book. When the hedge fixes more, hedging beats the offer; the card shows the difference.
What is a ticket’s fair value?
What it returns if it wins times the chance it wins, using the market’s chance with the book’s margin taken out. It is the price the ticket would sell for in a market with no vig.
Why is the fair chance taken from both sides’ prices?
One side’s price alone includes the book’s margin. Taking both removes it, which is the same no-vig method Kelly uses everywhere.
Does a partial cash-out change the maths?
No: a partial cash-out is the same offer on part of the ticket, so its value against fair value is the same share.