Break-even calculator
−110 breaks even at 52.4%: a bettor has to win that share of bets at this price to break even, the same as going 11–10 (11 wins cover 10 losses).
A price breaks even when it wins one divided by its decimal odds of the time. Type any price to see that win rate as a percentage and a record, the return at each win rate, nearby prices, the bets it takes to prove a record beats it, and the win rate needed after US federal tax.
−110 breaks even at 52.4%
52.4%Break-even win rateof decided bets; pushes don't count
- Record
- 11–10
- 11 wins cover 10 losses
- Bet to win
- 110 → 100
- 1.91 in decimal odds
- Over a coin flip
- +2.4 pts
- above 50%
- Hold, both sides
- 4.5%
- with −110 on each side
What each win rate returns at −110
Return per dollar bet, over many bets
Break-even 52.4%What −110 costs: 2.4 points over a coin flip
Each point over 52.4% adds 1.9% to the return on every dollar bet
Fewest wins that turn a profit
- Over 100 bets
- 53–47
- 53 wins of 100
- Over 500 bets
- 262–238
- 262 wins of 500
- Over 1,000 bets
- 524–476
- 524 wins of 1,000
Break-even after US federal tax
By federal bracket, on net winnings
- 10%52.7%55.0% not itemizing
- 12%52.7%55.6% not itemizing
- 22%53.1%58.5% not itemizing
- 24%53.2%59.1% not itemizing
- 32%53.5%61.8% not itemizing
- 35%53.7%62.9% not itemizing
- 37%53.8%63.6% not itemizing
Every win rate at −110
| Win rate | Return per bet |
|---|---|
| 47% | −10.3% |
| 48% | −8.4% |
| 49% | −6.5% |
| 50% | −4.5% |
| 51% | −2.6% |
| 52% | −0.7% |
| 53% | +1.2% |
| 54% | +3.1% |
| 55% | +5.0% |
| 56% | +6.9% |
| 57% | +8.8% |
| 58% | +10.7% |
| 59% | +12.6% |
| 60% | +14.5% |
How it's worked out
| Break-even | 1 ÷ 1.909 = 52.4% |
| Return per dollar bet | win rate × 1.909 − 1 |
| Bets to prove a record | [(zα√(p₀q₀) + zβ√(p₁q₁)) ÷ (p₁ − p₀)]² |
Questions about the break-even calculator
What win rate breaks even at −110?
The standard spread and total price needs a little over half its bets to win, because each win pays less than each loss costs. The card above shows the exact rate and the record it equals.
How is a break-even percentage worked out?
Divide one by the price's decimal odds. For a minus price that is the price without its sign over itself plus 100; for a plus price it is 100 over the price plus 100.
How many bets does it take to prove a record beats break-even?
More than most people expect. A win rate a point or two over break-even takes thousands of bets to tell apart from luck; the card shows how many at each win rate.
How do taxes change the break-even rate?
In the US, winnings are taxable and losses only count against them if you itemize, so the win rate you need rises. The after-tax row shows the rate at each federal bracket, itemizing or not.