2004 NFL betting results
Against the closing lines in 2004's regular season, favourites went 122-124-6 against the spread and home teams 116-134-6, and games went over 126 times and under 128. Past results only, never a forecast.
Kelly holds no graded 2004 betting record by team yet.
2004 betting results by situation (38)
How favourites, home teams and totals did in every common situation. Sorting keeps each group together.
Showing (38) of (38) · Now
| Situation | Games | Fav ATS | Fav cover% | Fav SU | Fav vs spread | Home ATS | Home cover% | Home SU | O/U | Over% | Avg total | Avg points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ||||||||||||
| Pick em to 2.5 | 42 | 21-17-0 | 55.3% | 21-17 | -0.1 | 20-22-0 | 47.6% | 20-22 | 20-22-0 | 47.6% | 41 | 40.6 |
| 3 to 3.5 | 66 | 26-36-4 | 41.9% | 36-30 | -2.7 | 32-30-4 | 51.6% | 34-32 | 36-30-0 | 54.5% | 41.9 | 43.9 |
| 4 to 6.5 | 66 | 39-25-2 | 60.9% | 48-18 | 1.1 | 31-33-2 | 48.4% | 40-26 | 34-32-0 | 51.5% | 41.2 | 43.5 |
| 7 to 9.5 | 57 | 25-32-0 | 43.9% | 40-17 | 0 | 21-36-0 | 36.8% | 32-25 | 24-32-1 | 42.9% | 42.9 | 43.8 |
| 10 or more | 25 | 11-14-0 | 44% | 22-3 | 2.2 | 12-13-0 | 48% | 19-6 | 12-12-1 | 50% | 42.1 | 41.4 |
| Total | ||||||||||||
| Under 41 | 114 | 58-52-2 | 52.7% | 73-39 | -0.3 | 55-57-2 | 49.1% | 63-51 | 54-59-1 | 47.8% | 36.7 | 37.7 |
| 41 to 43.5 | 52 | 24-26-1 | 48% | 34-17 | -0.3 | 22-29-1 | 43.1% | 30-22 | 25-27-0 | 48.1% | 41.9 | 43.5 |
| 44 to 46.5 | 42 | 17-22-2 | 43.6% | 26-15 | -0.5 | 20-20-2 | 50% | 27-15 | 19-22-1 | 46.3% | 44.9 | 44 |
| 47 to 49.5 | 20 | 9-11-0 | 45% | 14-6 | -1.6 | 6-14-0 | 30% | 9-11 | 11-9-0 | 55% | 48.3 | 50.4 |
| 50 or more | 28 | 14-13-1 | 51.9% | 20-8 | 1.7 | 13-14-1 | 48.1% | 16-12 | 17-11-0 | 60.7% | 53.3 | 56.4 |
| Matchup | ||||||||||||
| Division | 96 | 43-49-3 | 46.7% | 61-34 | -1 | 42-51-3 | 45.2% | 54-42 | 45-50-1 | 47.4% | 41.9 | 43.3 |
| Conference | 96 | 51-44-1 | 53.7% | 66-30 | -0.1 | 44-51-1 | 46.3% | 55-41 | 46-49-1 | 48.4% | 41.9 | 41.5 |
| Interconference | 64 | 28-31-2 | 47.5% | 40-21 | 0.7 | 30-32-2 | 48.4% | 36-28 | 35-29-0 | 54.7% | 41.6 | 44.6 |
| Kickoff slot | ||||||||||||
| Sunday early | 140 | 66-72-1 | 47.8% | 86-53 | -0.2 | 67-72-1 | 48.2% | 81-59 | 63-76-1 | 45.3% | 41.6 | 41.6 |
| Sunday late | 73 | 34-34-3 | 50% | 49-22 | -1.2 | 31-39-3 | 44.3% | 43-30 | 38-34-1 | 52.8% | 41.4 | 43.4 |
| Sunday night | 17 | 9-6-1 | 60% | 14-2 | 1.3 | 9-7-1 | 56.2% | 9-8 | 7-10-0 | 41.2% | 40.6 | 37.6 |
| Monday night | 16 | 8-8-0 | 50% | 9-7 | -0.2 | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 8-8 | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 45.1 | 54.6 |
| Friday | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | 0-1 | -6.5 | 0-1-0 | 0% | 0-1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 56 | 65 |
| Saturday | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50% | 6-0 | 1.9 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 2-4 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 43.8 | 51.3 |
| Thursday | 3 | 2-0-1 | 100% | 3-0 | 11.3 | 1-1-1 | 50% | 2-1 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 44.8 | 43 |
| Month | ||||||||||||
| September | 46 | 23-22-1 | 51.1% | 32-14 | 0.2 | 19-26-1 | 42.2% | 26-20 | 18-28-0 | 39.1% | 41.7 | 38.5 |
| October | 69 | 30-36-2 | 45.5% | 39-29 | -2.8 | 33-34-2 | 49.3% | 39-30 | 37-31-1 | 54.4% | 40.9 | 43.1 |
| November | 61 | 34-24-1 | 58.6% | 41-18 | 2.6 | 27-33-1 | 45% | 33-28 | 30-30-1 | 50% | 42 | 44 |
| December | 64 | 29-32-2 | 47.5% | 47-16 | 0.5 | 29-33-2 | 46.8% | 37-27 | 33-31-0 | 51.6% | 43 | 45.2 |
| January | 16 | 6-10-0 | 37.5% | 8-8 | -3.9 | 8-8-0 | 50% | 10-6 | 8-8-0 | 50% | 40.7 | 42.3 |
| Roof | ||||||||||||
| Outdoors | 200 | 97-95-4 | 50.5% | 127-69 | -0.2 | 92-104-4 | 46.9% | 111-89 | 100-98-2 | 50.5% | 40.4 | 42.3 |
| Dome | 48 | 22-25-1 | 46.8% | 35-13 | 0.2 | 20-27-1 | 42.6% | 31-17 | 22-26-0 | 45.8% | 47.1 | 46 |
| Roof closed | 3 | 0-2-1 | 0% | 1-2 | -9.8 | 0-2-1 | 0% | 0-3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 45.3 | 37.3 |
| Roof open | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60% | 4-1 | 1.3 | 4-1-0 | 80% | 3-2 | 3-2-0 | 60% | 46.8 | 44.8 |
| Temperature | ||||||||||||
| 35°F or below | 17 | 9-7-0 | 56.2% | 11-5 | 1.2 | 7-10-0 | 41.2% | 9-8 | 9-8-0 | 52.9% | 42.1 | 42.2 |
| 36 to 54°F | 59 | 30-28-1 | 51.7% | 45-14 | 0.1 | 23-35-1 | 39.7% | 34-25 | 38-21-0 | 64.4% | 40.2 | 46.1 |
| 55 to 74°F | 93 | 42-46-2 | 47.7% | 54-36 | -0 | 46-45-2 | 50.5% | 52-41 | 41-50-2 | 45.1% | 40.7 | 41.2 |
| 75°F or above | 31 | 16-14-1 | 53.3% | 17-14 | -2.2 | 16-14-1 | 53.3% | 16-15 | 12-19-0 | 38.7% | 39 | 38.4 |
| Indoors | 51 | 22-27-2 | 44.9% | 36-15 | -0.4 | 20-29-2 | 40.8% | 31-20 | 23-28-0 | 45.1% | 47 | 45.5 |
| Weeks | ||||||||||||
| Weeks 1-4 | 60 | 29-29-2 | 50% | 39-21 | -1.3 | 24-34-2 | 41.4% | 31-29 | 24-36-0 | 40% | 41.3 | 38.5 |
| Weeks 5-9 | 70 | 29-38-1 | 43.3% | 38-30 | -2.1 | 36-33-1 | 52.2% | 43-27 | 42-26-2 | 61.8% | 41.4 | 45.1 |
| Weeks 10-13 | 62 | 39-20-2 | 66.1% | 48-13 | 4.9 | 27-33-2 | 45% | 33-29 | 29-33-0 | 46.8% | 42.2 | 44.3 |
| Weeks 14-18 | 64 | 25-37-1 | 40.3% | 42-21 | -2.2 | 29-34-1 | 46% | 38-26 | 31-33-0 | 48.4% | 42.5 | 43.5 |
| All games (256) | 256 | 122-124-6 | 49.6% | 167-85 | -0.2 | 116-134-6 | 46.4% | 145-111 | 126-128-2 | 49.6% | 41.8 | 43 |
Data as of 2026-11-13 05:46 UTCSource: nflverse data (CC BY 4.0); Closing spread and total as nflverse publishes them (a market consensus, never one book's price)Regular season. Rates on fewer than 5 decisions are marked small. Past results only.