How does Kelly decide start or sit?

By how often each player scores the most: Kelly draws 10,000 simulated games for each player from its projections in your scoring and counts the share each one comes out on top, ties split. Medians, floors and ceilings come from the same simulated games.

What do floor and ceiling mean?

The floor is the 10th percentile of a player's simulated games and the ceiling the 90th: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10.

Week 10 start or sit

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Start Joe Burrow: 26.7 projected Half-PPR · 6-pt pass TD points (9.2 to 43.8) against Drake Maye 24.4 (7.6 to 41.4). He scores the most in 55.3% of Kelly's simulations.

Compare players (2)

Type names or ask in words (“Allen or Hurts”, “Spears, Warren or Hunt”): two to four players, Half-PPR · 6-pt pass TD scoring, Week 10.

Joe Burrow · 55.3%9.2 · 26.7 · 43.8
Drake Maye · 44.7%7.6 · 24.4 · 41.4
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Bars run from each player's floor (10th percentile) to his ceiling (90th); the tick is his median; the percentage is how often he scores the most of the players compared.

Showing (2) of (2) · Week 10 · Compared with the players compared (2)

Player	Opp	Median	Floor (P10)	Ceiling (P90)	Scores the most	Plays	Report
Joe Burrow	PIT	26.7	9.2	43.8	55.3%	96.1%	—
Drake Maye	@DET	24.4	7.6	41.4	44.7%	96.1%	—
Average of the players compared	—	25.5	8.4	42.6	50%	96.1%	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:31 UTCSource: Kelly's projections and simulated ranges; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0); Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; margin removed per book, then averaged10,000 simulated games per player, scored in Half-PPR · 6-pt pass TD.Recent form needs 6 games, usage 3 and the defence 8; fewer are marked as a small sample.

Bold marks the best value of the players compared in each column (a tie marks none). Same comparison: MCP compare_players · chat · POST /v1/players:compare

Questions

Should I start Joe Burrow or Drake Maye in Week 10?: Start Joe Burrow: 26.7 projected Half-PPR · 6-pt pass TD points (9.2 to 43.8) against Drake Maye 24.4 (7.6 to 41.4). He scores the most in 55.3% of Kelly's simulations.
How does Kelly decide start or sit?: By how often each player scores the most: Kelly draws 10,000 simulated games for each player from its projections in your scoring and counts the share each one comes out on top, ties split. Medians, floors and ceilings come from the same simulated games.
What do floor and ceiling mean?: The floor is the 10th percentile of a player's simulated games and the ceiling the 90th: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10.