Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?

Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.

Who is the top running back for Week 10?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.

Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?

Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.

Who is the top tight end for Week 10?

Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.

Who is the top kicker for Week 10?

Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.

Who is the top defense for Week 10?

Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.

What do the floor and ceiling mean?

They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.

What is points over replacement?

A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.

Fantasy football Week 10 rankings

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Joe Burrow is Kelly's top Week 10 quarterback at 22.2 projected Half-PPR points (range 8.5 to 35.3). 486 players are ranked across 6 positions; CHI, DEN, PHI, TB are on bye.

Week 10 rankings, Half-PPR (486)

Showing (200) of (486) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with players at the same position (486 players)

Player	Pos	Team	Pos rank	Proj	Floor	Ceiling	Range	Over repl.	Play %	Status	Opp
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	1	22.2	8.5	35.3	26.8	6.7	96.1%	Not listed	vs PIT
Drake Maye	QB	NE	2	20.4	7	33.5	26.5	4.9	96.1%	Not listed	at DET
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	3	19.7	7	32.7	25.7	4.2	96.1%	Not listed	at NYJ
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	4	18.7	7	30.5	23.5	3.2	96.1%	Not listed	at DAL
Jordan Love	QB	GB	5	17.8	6.3	29.8	23.5	2.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIN
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	6	17.4	6.4	29	22.6	1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at TEN
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	7	17.3	6.2	29.1	22.9	1.8	96.1%	Not listed	at CLE
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	1	16.8	6.7	31.7	25	7.9	100%	Not listed	vs NE
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	8	16.7	7	27.5	20.5	1.2	96.7%	Not listed	at NYG
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	9	16.6	5.8	27.9	22.1	1.1	96.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	10	16.4	5.6	27.6	22	0.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs CAR
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	1	16	5.8	34.2	28.4	10.2	99.6%	Not listed	at ARI
James Cook	RB	BUF	2	15.8	6.2	30.5	24.3	6.9	100%	Not listed	at NYJ
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	11	15.6	5.2	26.6	21.4	0.1	96.1%	Not listed	at NO
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	12	15.5	4.8	26.6	21.8	0	96.1%	Not listed	vs SEA
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	3	15.4	6.1	29.3	23.2	6.5	100%	Not listed	at ATL
Jared Goff	QB	DET	13	15.3	5.5	25.8	20.3	-0.2	96.1%	Not listed	vs NE
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14	15.1	5.1	25.9	20.8	-0.4	96.1%	Not listed	at ARI
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	4	15	5.3	29.9	24.6	6.1	100%	Not listed	at DAL
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	15	14.9	5	25.5	20.5	-0.6	96.1%	Not listed	at ATL
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	5	14.1	5.9	26.8	20.9	5.2	100%	Not listed	at CIN
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	2	14	4.7	30.4	25.7	8.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	6	14	5.9	26.7	20.8	5.1	100%	Not listed	vs KC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	13.8	4.5	30.7	26.2	8	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	7	13.7	5.1	27.2	22.1	4.8	100%	Not listed	vs JAX
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	16	13.6	4.2	23.7	19.5	-1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at CIN
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8	13.6	5.4	26.4	21	4.7	100%	Not listed	at NO
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	17	13.5	4.3	23.3	19	-2	96.1%	Not listed	vs BUF
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	9	13.3	4.9	26.1	21.2	4.4	100%	Not listed	vs SF
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	18	13.1	3.8	22.8	19	-2.4	96.1%	Not listed	vs KC
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	19	12.9	2.9	23.2	20.3	-2.6	96.1%	Not listed	at IND
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	4	12.7	4.1	27.9	23.8	6.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	20	12.7	4	22.1	18.1	-2.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs JAX
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	5	12.1	3.7	26.5	22.8	6.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Drew Lock	QB	SEA	21	11.8	3.8	21.3	17.5	-3.7	96.1%	Not listed	at LV
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	22	11.7	3.1	20.9	17.8	-3.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIA
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	10	11.6	4.3	23.1	18.8	2.7	100%	Not listed	at ARI
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	11	11.4	4.1	23	18.9	2.5	100%	Not listed	vs MIA
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	23	11.1	3.2	19.7	16.5	-4.4	96.1%	Not listed	at BAL
Christian Watson	WR	GB	6	11.1	3.4	25.9	22.5	5.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	12	11.1	3.3	23.7	20.4	2.2	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	7	11	3.8	24.6	20.8	5.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	7	11	3.5	25.5	22	5.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	9	10.7	3.7	23.9	20.2	4.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	24	10.7	2.8	19.3	16.5	-4.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	1	10.5	2.9	24.3	21.4	4.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	13	10.5	4.1	21.6	17.5	1.6	100%	Not listed	vs BUF
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	14	10.1	3.6	20.9	17.3	1.2	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	25	10.1	2.1	19.2	17.1	-5.4	96.1%	Not listed	at GB
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	14	10.1	3.2	21.7	18.5	1.2	100%	Not listed	at LV
Chris Olave	WR	NO	10	9.8	3.2	22.3	19.1	4	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Audric Estime	RB	NO	16	9.7	2.7	21.3	18.6	0.8	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	17	9.6	3.4	20.6	17.2	0.7	99.3%	Not listed	vs BUF
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	17	9.6	3.6	20.1	16.5	0.7	100%	Not listed	at IND
Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	26	9.5	0	20.4	20.4	-6	69.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
J.J. McCarthy	QB	NYG	26	9.5	3.2	17.5	14.3	-6	96.7%	Not listed	vs WAS
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	19	9.4	3.5	19.7	16.2	0.5	100%	Not listed	vs PIT
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	11	9.4	2.9	22	19.1	3.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	20	9.3	3.1	20.1	17	0.4	100%	Not listed	at DET
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	2	9.3	2.9	21.1	18.2	3.7	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	21	9.2	3	20.3	17.3	0.3	100%	Not listed	vs LA
Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	22	9.1	0.9	20	19.1	0.2	91%	Not listed	at LV
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	12	9.1	2.9	21.2	18.3	3.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
George Kittle	TE	SF	3	9	2.5	21.2	18.7	3.4	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	1	9	3	17	14	1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13	9	2.8	20.6	17.8	3.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	4	8.9	2.3	20.5	18.2	3.3	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
Blake Corum	RB	LA	23	8.9	2.4	20.3	17.9	0	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	23	8.9	2.6	19.8	17.2	0	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	14	8.6	1.9	21.1	19.2	2.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	25	8.3	2.5	19.3	16.8	-0.6	100%	Not listed	vs SEA
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	26	8.2	2.7	18.7	16	-0.7	100%	Not listed	at CLE
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	26	8.2	0	19.6	19.6	-0.7	83.5%	Not listed	vs WAS
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	8.1	2.7	19.2	16.5	2.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Chris Boswell	K	PIT	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CLE
Harrison Butker	K	KC	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs PIT
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs SF
Jake Bates	K	DET	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
Cam Little	K	JAX	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Andy Borregales	K	NE	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DET
Trey Smack	K	GB	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	1	8	2	17	15	2	100%	—	vs MIN
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	1	8	2	16	14	2	100%	—	at CLE
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	16	7.9	2.1	20.3	18.2	2.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs LA
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	16	7.9	1.8	20.3	18.5	2.1	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	18	7.8	2.1	19.9	17.8	2	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	28	7.7	1.7	18.5	16.8	-1.2	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	19	7.6	1.7	19.6	17.9	1.8	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	20	7.5	1.9	19.4	17.5	1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	20	7.5	1.7	19.6	17.9	1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	29	7.3	2.2	17.2	15	-1.6	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	29	7.3	1.8	18	16.2	-1.6	100%	Not listed	at NYG
Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	28	7.2	0	19.2	19.2	-8.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs LA
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	22	7.1	1.6	18.3	16.7	1.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	31	7.1	1.7	17.2	15.5	-1.8	99.3%	Not listed	at CIN
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	22	7.1	1.6	19.6	18	1.3	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Nick Folk	K	ATL	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Brandon McManus	K	LA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Jason Myers	K	SEA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at LV
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	32	7	1.7	16.9	15.2	-1.9	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs BUF
Joey Slye	K	TEN	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs JAX
Matt Gay	K	LV	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at BAL
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Will Reichard	K	MIN	13	7	1	16	15	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Ryan Fitzgerald	K	CAR	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Dominic Zvada	K	NYG	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
Drew Stevens	K	WAS	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	24	7	1.6	18.3	16.7	1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	3	7	1	16	15	1	100%	—	at TEN
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	3	7	2	16	14	1	100%	—	at ARI
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	3	7	1	15	14	1	100%	—	at LV
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	33	6.9	1.1	17.6	16.5	-2	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	25	6.9	1.8	18	16.2	1.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	34	6.8	1.7	16.7	15	-2.1	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	5	6.8	1.7	17.2	15.5	1.2	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	26	6.7	0.7	18.1	17.4	0.9	94%	Not listed	vs JAX
Joe Fagnano	QB	BAL	29	6.6	0.6	13.8	13.2	-8.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs LAC
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	27	6.6	1.6	17.5	15.9	0.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6	6.5	1.8	16	14.2	0.9	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	6	6.5	2	16.4	14.4	0.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	8	6.4	1.7	16.5	14.8	0.8	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	28	6.3	1.6	16.2	14.6	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	35	6.3	1.2	16.3	15.1	-2.6	100%	Not listed	vs WAS
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	28	6.3	1.1	17.7	16.6	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	28	6.3	1.4	17.2	15.8	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs SEA
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	35	6.3	1.9	15.3	13.4	-2.6	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	31	6.2	1.6	16.6	15	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	31	6.2	1.5	16.6	15.1	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	37	6.1	1.8	15.6	13.8	-2.8	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	33	6.1	1.5	16.7	15.2	0.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Darren Waller	TE	CAR	9	6	1.4	16.3	14.9	0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	9	6	1.6	15.8	14.2	0.4	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
Joshua Karty	K	LA	26	6	1	13	12	-2	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	34	6	1.5	16	14.5	0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Baltimore Ravens D/ST	DST	BAL	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs LAC
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	at NYJ
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs HOU
Indianapolis Colts D/ST	DST	IND	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs MIA
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	6	1	15	14	0	100%	—	at GB
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs CAR
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs WAS
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	35	5.9	1.4	16.2	14.8	0.1	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jadarian Price	RB	SEA	38	5.9	1.3	15.3	14	-3	99.3%	Not listed	at LV
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11	5.8	1.6	15.2	13.6	0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	36	5.8	1.4	16.3	14.9	0	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	36	5.8	1.4	15.9	14.5	0	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Emmett Johnson	RB	KC	39	5.7	1.1	15.3	14.2	-3.2	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	12	5.6	1.3	15.3	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	38	5.6	1.1	16.1	15	-0.2	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	12	5.6	1.5	15.1	13.6	0	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	38	5.6	1.3	15.3	14	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	38	5.6	1.2	15.7	14.5	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Kaelon Black	RB	SF	40	5.5	1.5	14.4	12.9	-3.4	99.3%	Not listed	at DAL
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	14	5.4	1	15.6	14.6	-0.2	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	41	5.4	1.2	14.7	13.5	-0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	41	5.4	1.4	13.9	12.5	-3.5	100%	Not listed	vs HOU
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	15	5.3	1.5	14.2	12.7	-0.3	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	15	5.3	1	15.4	14.4	-0.3	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	42	5.3	1.2	15.2	14	-0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	17	5.2	1.5	13.8	12.3	-0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	43	5.2	0.7	15.8	15.1	-0.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	42	5.1	1	14.5	13.5	-3.8	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
George Pickens	WR	DAL	44	5	0	17.3	17.3	-0.8	69.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	44	5	1.1	15	13.9	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	44	5	1	15.1	14.1	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	13	5	-1	12	13	-1	100%	—	vs KC
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	vs PIT
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	vs NE
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at ATL
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at BAL
Las Vegas Raiders D/ST	DST	LV	13	5	0	12	12	-1	100%	—	vs SEA
Miami Dolphins D/ST	DST	MIA	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at IND
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST	DST	PIT	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at CIN
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	13	5	-1	12	13	-1	100%	—	at DAL
Tennessee Titans D/ST	DST	TEN	13	5	-1	13	14	-1	100%	—	vs JAX
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at NYG
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	18	4.9	1.3	13.3	12	-0.7	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	19	4.7	0.8	14.3	13.5	-0.9	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	43	4.7	1	12.7	11.7	-4.2	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	47	4.7	0.9	14	13.1	-1.1	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	47	4.7	0.5	14.2	13.7	-1.1	94%	Not listed	at BAL
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	49	4.6	0.9	13.7	12.8	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	49	4.6	0.5	14.5	14	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	49	4.6	0.5	15.2	14.7	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	20	4.5	0.6	13.9	13.3	-1.1	99.8%	Not listed	vs CAR
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	20	4.5	1	13.6	12.6	-1.1	99.8%	Not listed	at IND
Seth McGowan	RB	IND	44	4.5	0.8	13.7	12.9	-4.4	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	22	4.4	0.6	14.1	13.5	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Josh Downs	WR	IND	52	4.4	0.5	13.9	13.4	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	52	4.4	0.5	13.5	13	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	52	4.4	0.5	14.6	14.1	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	45	4.3	0.7	13.5	12.8	-4.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs PIT
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	23	4.2	0.8	13	12.2	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Starter average	—	—	—	9.8	3	20.9	17.9	2	99.2%	—	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 12:00 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, Half-PPR scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-13+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (QB1–QB12, RB1–RB24, WR1–WR36, TE1–TE12, K1–K12, DST1–DST12); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)

Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (113) of (168), 67.3%; mean miss 5.0 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.

Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)

Player	Pos	Team	Projected	Low	High	Scored	Miss	In range
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	22.3	14	31.2	29.5	7.2	Inside
Drake Maye	QB	NE	19.8	12.1	27.7	18.3	-1.5	Inside
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.7	12	28	12.9	-6.8	Inside
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	19.3	11.8	29.2	13.4	-5.9	Inside
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	18.5	11.4	26.2	25.3	6.8	Inside
Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.6	10.7	24.9	5.3	-12.3	Below
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.2	10.3	24.4	12.6	-4.6	Inside
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.1	10.4	24.4	19.5	2.4	Inside
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	16.8	10.2	23.5	14.6	-2.2	Inside
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.7	9.7	23.9	36.2	19.5	Above
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.7	9.7	23.8	13.6	-3.1	Inside
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.6	10.1	23.4	12.8	-3.8	Inside
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.1	9.7	23.1	16.5	0.4	Inside
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.1	9.5	23	35.4	19.3	Above
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	15.9	8.7	24.9	21.7	5.8	Inside
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.8	9.3	22.9	11.2	-4.6	Inside
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.7	9	22.9	19.7	4	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	15.6	8.1	26.3	8.6	-7	Inside
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	15.5	8.8	22.4	3.8	-11.7	Below
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.2	8.9	21.9	15.7	0.5	Inside
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	15.1	8.8	23.8	34.3	19.2	Above
James Cook	RB	BUF	14.8	8.2	23.6	16.7	1.9	Inside
Sam Darnold	QB	—	14.7	8.5	21.4	0	-14.7	Below
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	8.1	20.9	20.3	6	Inside
Kyler Murray	QB	—	13.9	8.1	20.1	0	-13.9	Below
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.9	7.5	22.3	3.1	-10.8	Below
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	13.9	7.4	23.3	28	14.1	Above
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.7	7.7	20.1	7.4	-6.3	Below
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13.7	7.7	21.6	11.6	-2.1	Inside
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13.6	7.8	21.4	23.7	10.1	Above
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	13.4	7.3	19.7	13.5	0.1	Inside
Deshaun Watson	QB	—	13.3	8.1	19.3	0	-13.3	Below
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	13.3	7.1	21.2	20.4	7.1	Inside
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	13	7.2	20.6	7.6	-5.4	Inside
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	12.8	6.9	20.2	26.5	13.7	Above
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	12.8	6.5	22	17.7	4.9	Inside
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	12.3	6.6	20	6.9	-5.4	Inside
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	12.2	6.8	18	10.4	-1.8	Inside
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	12.2	6.8	19.6	4.4	-7.8	Below
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11.8	6.3	20.5	6.8	-5	Inside
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	11.8	5.9	20	26.5	14.7	Above
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	11.6	5.7	19.9	28.5	16.9	Above
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	10.9	5.4	17.7	5.6	-5.3	Inside
George Kittle	TE	SF	10.9	5.1	19.4	7.8	-3.1	Inside
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	10.9	5.2	19.2	18.8	7.9	Inside
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	10.8	5.6	18.7	12.6	1.8	Inside
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	10.7	3.6	18.5	8.9	-1.8	Inside
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	10.7	5.2	17.9	0.5	-10.2	Below
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10.3	5.4	17.2	13.3	3	Inside
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	10.2	5.6	16.9	9	-1.2	Inside
Cam Skattebo	RB	—	10.1	5.5	16.7	0	-10.1	Below
Christian Watson	WR	GB	10.1	4.8	18	26.6	16.5	Above
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	9.9	4.4	17	9.1	-0.8	Inside
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	9.9	4.7	17.5	27.4	17.5	Above
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	9.8	4.7	16.7	5	-4.8	Inside
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	9.8	4.6	17	4.5	-5.3	Below
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	9.8	4.9	17.5	17.2	7.4	Inside
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	9.7	4.6	17	8.9	-0.8	Inside
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	9.6	4.3	17.2	4.5	-5.1	Inside
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	9.6	4.8	16.8	3.8	-5.8	Below
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	9.5	4.8	16	6.9	-2.6	Inside
Chris Olave	WR	NO	9.3	4.6	16.9	13.3	4	Inside
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	9.2	4.5	15.7	16.8	7.6	Above
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	9	4.4	15.5	5.6	-3.4	Inside
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	9	4.6	16.1	13.6	4.6	Inside
Blake Corum	RB	LA	8.9	3.8	15.4	11.8	2.9	Inside
Drake London	WR	ATL	8.8	4.5	15.8	9.3	0.5	Inside
Emanuel Wilson	RB	—	8.7	3.7	15.5	0	-8.7	Below
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	8.6	4.3	14.8	2.6	-6	Below
George Pickens	WR	—	8.5	4.1	15.5	0	-8.5	Below
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	8.4	4.2	14.7	7.9	-0.5	Inside
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	8.4	3.9	16	9	0.6	Inside
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	8.4	3.7	15.7	7.4	-1	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	8.1	3.7	15.1	11.2	3.1	Inside
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jason Myers	K	SEA	8	4	13	6	-2	Inside
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8	4	13	4	-4	Inside
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	8	4	13	8	0	Inside
Matt Gay	K	LV	8	4	13	7	-1	Inside
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	8	4	13	10	2	Inside
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jake Bates	K	DET	8	4	13	15	7	Above
Cam Little	K	JAX	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	8	4	13	16	8	Above
Andy Borregales	K	NE	8	4	12	3	-5	Below
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	8	4	14	11	3	Inside
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	8	3	13	10	2	Inside
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	7.9	3.4	15.3	7.3	-0.6	Inside
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	7.9	3.5	14.4	13.8	5.9	Inside
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	7.8	3.3	14.8	9.8	2	Inside
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	7.6	3.3	13.8	8.2	0.6	Inside
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	7.6	3.4	14.2	7.4	-0.2	Inside
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	7.5	3.3	13.4	6.4	-1.1	Inside
Garrett Wilson	WR	—	7.5	3.4	14.5	0	-7.5	Below
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	7.4	2.9	14.4	6.6	-0.8	Inside
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	7.2	3	13.4	7.9	0.7	Inside
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	7.2	3.1	14	13.5	6.3	Inside
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	7.2	3.1	13.4	1.4	-5.8	Below
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	7.1	3	14.3	13.1	6	Inside
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	7	3.1	12.9	6	-1	Inside
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	7	3.1	13.3	5.2	-1.8	Inside
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	7	3.2	13	6.4	-0.6	Inside
Nick Folk	K	ATL	7	3	12	4	-3	Inside
Brandon McManus	K	LA	7	4	12	8	1	Inside
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Zane Gonzalez	K	MIA	7	4	13	10	3	Inside
Daniel Carlson	K	—	7	3	12	0	-7	Below
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	7	4	12	15	8	Above
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	7	3	11	13	6	Above
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	7	3	12	13	6	Above
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	7	3	12	3	-4	Inside
Will Reichard	K	MIN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	7	3	12	12	5	Inside
Kenny Gainwell	RB	TB	6.8	3.4	12.5	9.1	2.3	Inside
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	6.8	2.9	12.4	2.7	-4.1	Below
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	6.8	2.8	13.7	12.7	5.9	Inside
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6.8	3	13.1	5.3	-1.5	Inside
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	6.7	3.2	12.9	4.6	-2.1	Inside
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	6.7	2.8	13.6	10	3.3	Inside
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	6.5	2.7	13.1	6.3	-0.2	Inside
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	6.5	2.6	13.1	7.5	1	Inside
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	6.5	2	12.8	2.1	-4.4	Inside
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	6.5	2.9	12.6	15.3	8.8	Above
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	6.4	2.7	12.9	4.6	-1.8	Inside
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	6.4	3	12.4	3.1	-3.3	Inside
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	6.4	2.7	12.8	2.7	-3.7	Inside
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	6.3	2.7	12.8	0	-6.3	Below
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	6.2	2.9	12.4	14	7.8	Above
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	6.2	2.8	11.9	7.5	1.3	Inside
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	6	2.7	12	7.8	1.8	Inside
Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	6	2.7	12	9.1	3.1	Inside
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	6	2.6	11.6	4.3	-1.7	Inside
Chicago Bears D/ST	DST	CHI	6	2	11	14	8	Above
Denver Broncos D/ST	DST	DEN	6	2	11	7	1	Inside
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	6	2	11	9	3	Inside
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	2	11	6	0	Inside
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	6	2	11	-1	-7	Below
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	3	12	7	1	Inside
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	2	11	15	9	Above
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	5.9	2.6	11.6	5.2	-0.7	Inside
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	5.9	2	12	3.8	-2.1	Inside
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	5.9	2.6	11.5	5	-0.9	Inside
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	5.8	2.9	11.3	-0.3	-6.1	Below
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	5.8	2.7	11.2	3.2	-2.6	Inside
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	5.8	2.7	11	2.4	-3.4	Below
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.5	2.6	10.7	3.2	-2.3	Inside
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	5.3	2.5	10.3	5.2	-0.1	Inside
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	5	1.9	10.7	1.6	-3.4	Below
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	5	2	10	15	10	Above
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	5	1	9	3	-2	Inside
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	5	2	10	3	-2	Inside
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	5	2	10	7	2	Inside
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	5	2	10	11	6	Above
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	5	1	10	-1	-6	Below
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	5	2	10	17	12	Above
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST	DST	TB	5	1	10	11	6	Above
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	4.3	1.6	9.7	1.8	-2.5	Inside
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	4.1	1.6	9.5	10.4	6.3	Above
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	4	1.5	8.8	8.7	4.7	Inside
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	4	0	8	1	-3	Inside
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	4	1	9	1	-3	Inside

Data as of 2026-11-13 12:00 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, Half-PPR scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (113) of (168) (67.3%); mean miss 5.0 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.

Questions

Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?: Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.
Who is the top running back for Week 10?: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.
Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?: Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.
Who is the top tight end for Week 10?: Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.
Who is the top kicker for Week 10?: Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
Who is the top defense for Week 10?: Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.
What do the floor and ceiling mean?: They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
Which teams are on bye in Week 10?: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
What is points over replacement?: A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.