Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?

Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.

Who is the top running back for Week 10?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 18.3 PPR points with a range of 7.5 to 33.7.

Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?

Puka Nacua (LA), projected 20.4 PPR points with a range of 7.9 to 41.5.

Who is the top tight end for Week 10?

Brock Bowers (LV), projected 13.2 PPR points with a range of 4.0 to 28.9.

Who is the top kicker for Week 10?

Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.

Who is the top defense for Week 10?

Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.

What do the floor and ceiling mean?

They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.

What is points over replacement?

A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.

Fantasy football Week 10 rankings, PPR

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Joe Burrow is Kelly's top Week 10 quarterback at 22.2 projected PPR points (range 8.5 to 35.3). 486 players are ranked across 6 positions; CHI, DEN, PHI, TB are on bye.

Week 10 rankings, PPR (486)

Showing (200) of (486) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with players at the same position (486 players)

Player	Pos	Team	Pos rank	Proj	Floor	Ceiling	Range	Over repl.	Play %	Status	Opp
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	1	22.2	8.5	35.3	26.8	6.7	96.1%	Not listed	vs PIT
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	1	20.4	7.9	41.5	33.6	12.7	99.6%	Not listed	at ARI
Drake Maye	QB	NE	2	20.4	7	33.5	26.5	4.9	96.1%	Not listed	at DET
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	3	19.7	7	32.7	25.7	4.2	96.1%	Not listed	at NYJ
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	4	18.7	7	30.5	23.5	3.2	96.1%	Not listed	at DAL
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	1	18.3	7.5	33.7	26.2	8.6	100%	Not listed	vs NE
Jordan Love	QB	GB	5	17.8	6.3	29.8	23.5	2.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIN
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	2	17.7	6.3	36.5	30.2	10	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	6	17.4	6.4	29	22.6	1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at TEN
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	7	17.3	6.2	29.1	22.9	1.8	96.1%	Not listed	at CLE
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	17.2	6	36.3	30.3	9.5	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	2	17.1	6.4	32.8	26.4	7.4	100%	Not listed	at DAL
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	3	16.8	6.9	31.3	24.4	7.1	100%	Not listed	at ATL
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	8	16.7	7	27.5	20.5	1.2	96.7%	Not listed	at NYG
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	9	16.6	5.8	27.9	22.1	1.1	96.1%	Not listed	vs SF
James Cook	RB	BUF	4	16.6	6.6	31.6	25	6.9	100%	Not listed	at NYJ
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	10	16.4	5.6	27.6	22	0.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs CAR
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	4	16.1	5.5	33.2	27.7	8.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	5	15.6	6.7	29.1	22.4	5.9	100%	Not listed	vs KC
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	11	15.6	5.2	26.6	21.4	0.1	96.1%	Not listed	at NO
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	12	15.5	4.8	26.6	21.8	0	96.1%	Not listed	vs SEA
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	6	15.4	6.6	28.7	22.1	5.7	100%	Not listed	at CIN
Jared Goff	QB	DET	13	15.3	5.5	25.8	20.3	-0.2	96.1%	Not listed	vs NE
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	7	15.2	6.2	28.7	22.5	5.5	100%	Not listed	at NO
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14	15.1	5.1	25.9	20.8	-0.4	96.1%	Not listed	at ARI
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	15	14.9	5	25.5	20.5	-0.6	96.1%	Not listed	at ATL
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	8	14.8	5.7	28.6	22.9	5.1	100%	Not listed	vs JAX
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	5	14.8	4.8	30.8	26	7.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	9	14.5	5.6	27.7	22.1	4.8	100%	Not listed	vs SF
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	6	14.3	5.1	29.9	24.8	6.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7	14.1	5.1	29.4	24.3	6.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	8	13.7	4.6	30	25.4	6	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	16	13.6	4.2	23.7	19.5	-1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at CIN
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	17	13.5	4.3	23.3	19	-2	96.1%	Not listed	vs BUF
Christian Watson	WR	GB	9	13.4	4.3	29.9	25.6	5.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	1	13.2	4	28.9	24.9	5.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	18	13.1	3.8	22.8	19	-2.4	96.1%	Not listed	vs KC
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	10	13	4.9	25.3	20.4	3.3	100%	Not listed	at ARI
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	11	12.9	4.7	25.1	20.4	3.2	100%	Not listed	vs MIA
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	19	12.9	2.9	23.2	20.3	-2.6	96.1%	Not listed	at IND
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	20	12.7	4	22.1	18.1	-2.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs JAX
Chris Olave	WR	NO	10	12.6	4.2	27	22.8	4.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	2	12.5	4.2	26.4	22.2	5.2	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	12	11.9	3.6	25	21.4	2.2	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Drew Lock	QB	SEA	21	11.8	3.8	21.3	17.5	-3.7	96.1%	Not listed	at LV
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	11	11.8	3.7	26	22.3	4.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	22	11.7	3.1	20.9	17.8	-3.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIA
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	13	11.7	4.5	23.2	18.7	2	100%	Not listed	vs BUF
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	12	11.6	3.7	25.1	21.4	3.9	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	14	11.5	4.4	22.8	18.4	1.8	100%	Not listed	vs PIT
George Kittle	TE	SF	3	11.4	3.5	25.3	21.8	4.1	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13	11.3	3.6	24.5	20.9	3.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	4	11.2	3.2	24.5	21.3	3.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	23	11.1	3.2	19.7	16.5	-4.4	96.1%	Not listed	at BAL
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	15	11.1	3.7	23	19.3	1.4	100%	Not listed	at LV
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	16	11	3.9	22.8	18.9	1.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs BUF
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	17	10.7	3.9	21.8	17.9	1	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	24	10.7	2.8	19.3	16.5	-4.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	18	10.6	3.6	22.1	18.5	0.9	100%	Not listed	at DET
Audric Estime	RB	NO	18	10.6	3.1	22.6	19.5	0.9	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	20	10.4	3.6	22	18.4	0.7	100%	Not listed	vs LA
Drake London	WR	ATL	14	10.3	3.4	23	19.6	2.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	14	10.3	3	24.4	21.4	2.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs LA
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	14	10.3	3	24	21	2.6	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	21	10.3	3.2	22.3	19.1	0.6	100%	Not listed	vs SEA
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	22	10.2	3.8	21	17.2	0.5	100%	Not listed	at IND
Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	25	10.1	2.1	19.2	17.1	-5.4	96.1%	Not listed	at GB
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	17	10.1	2.4	23.7	21.3	2.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	23	9.9	3	21.5	18.5	0.2	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	18	9.7	2.5	22.9	20.4	2	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	24	9.7	1	20.7	19.7	0	91%	Not listed	at LV
Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	26	9.5	0	20.4	20.4	-6	69.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	19	9.5	2.3	22.9	20.6	1.8	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	19	9.5	2.2	23	20.8	1.8	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Blake Corum	RB	LA	25	9.5	2.6	21.1	18.5	-0.2	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
J.J. McCarthy	QB	NYG	26	9.5	3.2	17.5	14.3	-6	96.7%	Not listed	vs WAS
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	21	9.3	2.3	22.8	20.5	1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	22	9.1	2.2	21.7	19.5	1.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	26	9.1	3	19.8	16.8	-0.6	100%	Not listed	at CLE
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	26	9.1	0	21	21	-0.6	83.5%	Not listed	vs WAS
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	1	9	3	17	14	1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	5	9	2.8	20.2	17.4	1.7	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	28	8.9	2.1	20.4	18.3	-0.8	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	23	8.8	1	21.7	20.7	1.1	94%	Not listed	vs JAX
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	23	8.8	2.2	21.3	19.1	1.1	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	23	8.8	2.3	21.2	18.9	1.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	26	8.6	2.4	20.1	17.7	0.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6	8.6	2.4	19.5	17.1	1.3	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	26	8.6	2	21.4	19.4	0.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	6	8.6	2.2	20.3	18.1	1.3	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	29	8.5	2.2	19.2	17	-1.2	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	29	8.5	2.2	19.7	17.5	-1.2	100%	Not listed	at NYG
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	28	8.5	1.8	21.8	20	0.8	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	28	8.5	2.1	20.7	18.6	0.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	31	8.4	2.5	18.8	16.3	-1.3	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	32	8.3	2.1	19	16.9	-1.4	99.3%	Not listed	at CIN
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	30	8.3	2.2	19.7	17.5	0.6	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	8	8.2	2.2	19.5	17.3	0.9	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	33	8.2	2.2	18.6	16.4	-1.5	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	31	8.2	2.1	19.8	17.7	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	32	8.1	2.1	19.8	17.7	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Chris Boswell	K	PIT	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CLE
Harrison Butker	K	KC	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs PIT
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs SF
Jake Bates	K	DET	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
Cam Little	K	JAX	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Andy Borregales	K	NE	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DET
Trey Smack	K	GB	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	1	8	2	17	15	2	100%	—	vs MIN
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	1	8	2	16	14	2	100%	—	at CLE
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	33	7.9	1.9	19.9	18	0.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs SEA
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	9	7.9	2.1	18.9	16.8	0.6	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	34	7.8	2	19	17	0.1	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	34	7.8	2	19.6	17.6	0.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Darren Waller	TE	CAR	10	7.7	1.9	18.9	17	0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	10	7.7	2.1	18.3	16.2	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	36	7.7	2	19.3	17.3	0	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	37	7.5	1.8	18.8	17	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	34	7.4	1.2	18.5	17.3	-2.3	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	38	7.4	1.8	18.1	16.3	-0.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	35	7.3	1.5	17.7	16.2	-2.4	100%	Not listed	vs WAS
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	12	7.3	1.5	18.6	17.1	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	12	7.3	1.9	17.8	15.9	0	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	28	7.2	0	19.2	19.2	-8.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs LA
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	14	7.2	1.6	18.2	16.6	-0.1	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	36	7.2	2.1	16.6	14.5	-2.5	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	15	7.1	2.1	17.1	15	-0.2	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	15	7.1	2	17.2	15.2	-0.2	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Nick Folk	K	ATL	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Brandon McManus	K	LA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Jason Myers	K	SEA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at LV
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs BUF
Joey Slye	K	TEN	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs JAX
Matt Gay	K	LV	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at BAL
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	17	7	1.6	17.5	15.9	-0.3	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Will Reichard	K	MIN	13	7	1	16	15	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	39	7	1	18.9	17.9	-0.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Ryan Fitzgerald	K	CAR	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Dominic Zvada	K	NYG	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
Drew Stevens	K	WAS	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Jadarian Price	RB	SEA	37	7	1.5	17	15.5	-2.7	99.3%	Not listed	at LV
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	3	7	1	16	15	1	100%	—	at TEN
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	3	7	2	16	14	1	100%	—	at ARI
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	3	7	1	15	14	1	100%	—	at LV
Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	40	6.9	1.3	18.3	17	-0.8	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	40	6.9	1.4	18.3	16.9	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	38	6.9	1.8	16.2	14.4	-2.8	100%	Not listed	vs HOU
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	39	6.8	2	16.4	14.4	-2.9	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	42	6.8	1.5	17.3	15.8	-0.9	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	42	6.8	1.4	17.9	16.5	-0.9	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	18	6.7	1.9	16.5	14.6	-0.6	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	44	6.7	1.6	17.5	15.9	-1	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Emmett Johnson	RB	KC	40	6.7	1.3	16.7	15.4	-3	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	45	6.6	1.4	17.3	15.9	-1.1	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Joe Fagnano	QB	BAL	29	6.6	0.6	13.8	13.2	-8.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs LAC
George Pickens	WR	DAL	46	6.4	0	20.4	20.4	-1.3	69.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	19	6.2	1.2	16.5	15.3	-1.1	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	19	6.2	1.4	16.6	15.2	-1.1	99.8%	Not listed	at IND
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	41	6.2	1.2	15.8	14.6	-3.5	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	47	6.1	1.1	16.8	15.7	-1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	47	6.1	1	17.3	16.3	-1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	21	6	1	16.1	15.1	-1.3	99.8%	Not listed	vs CAR
Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	42	6	1.4	14.6	13.2	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	49	6	1	16.9	15.9	-1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Josh Downs	WR	IND	49	6	1	16.6	15.6	-1.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Joshua Karty	K	LA	26	6	1	13	12	-2	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	49	6	0.5	16.5	16	-1.7	94%	Not listed	at BAL
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	49	6	1	16.2	15.2	-1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Kaelon Black	RB	SF	42	6	1.6	15	13.4	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	at DAL
Baltimore Ravens D/ST	DST	BAL	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs LAC
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	at NYJ
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs HOU
Indianapolis Colts D/ST	DST	IND	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs MIA
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	6	1	15	14	0	100%	—	at GB
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs CAR
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs WAS
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	22	5.8	1.3	15.9	14.6	-1.5	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	22	5.8	1	16	15	-1.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Efton Chism III	WR	NE	53	5.8	1	16.4	15.4	-1.9	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	53	5.8	1	16.9	15.9	-1.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Jordyn Tyson	WR	NO	55	5.7	1	15.4	14.4	-2	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	56	5.6	1	15.5	14.5	-2.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	24	5.6	1	15.2	14.2	-1.7	99.8%	Not listed	at LV
Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	57	5.5	1	15.6	14.6	-2.2	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	25	5.5	1	15.3	14.3	-1.8	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	25	5.5	1	14.9	13.9	-1.8	99.8%	Not listed	vs BUF
Eli Raridon	TE	NE	27	5.4	1	14.9	13.9	-1.9	99.8%	Not listed	at DET
Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	44	5.3	0.8	13.8	13	-4.4	99.3%	Not listed	at NYJ
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	58	5.3	1	15.1	14.1	-2.4	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	59	5.2	0.8	15.5	14.7	-2.5	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Michael Carter	RB	TEN	45	5.1	0	13.7	13.7	-4.6	91%	Not listed	vs JAX
Pierre Strong	RB	GB	45	5.1	1	13.8	12.8	-4.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Seth McGowan	RB	IND	45	5.1	1	14.3	13.3	-4.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
Starter average	—	—	—	11.1	3.5	23.1	19.5	2.3	99.2%	—	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, PPR scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-13+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (QB1–QB12, RB1–RB24, WR1–WR36, TE1–TE12, K1–K12, DST1–DST12); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)

Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (109) of (168), 64.9%; mean miss 5.3 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.

Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)

Player	Pos	Team	Projected	Low	High	Scored	Miss	In range
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	22.3	14	31.2	29.5	7.2	Inside
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	21.3	13.3	31.7	13.4	-7.9	Inside
Drake Maye	QB	NE	19.8	12.1	27.7	18.3	-1.5	Inside
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.7	12	28	12.9	-6.8	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	19	10.4	31.1	12.1	-6.9	Inside
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	18.5	11.4	26.2	25.3	6.8	Inside
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	18.2	10.4	27.9	22.7	4.5	Inside
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	18	10.2	28.9	35	17	Above
Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.6	10.7	24.9	5.3	-12.3	Below
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.2	10.3	24.4	12.6	-4.6	Inside
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.1	10.4	24.4	19.5	2.4	Inside
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	16.8	10.2	23.5	14.6	-2.2	Inside
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.7	9.7	23.9	36.2	19.5	Above
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.7	9.7	23.8	13.6	-3.1	Inside
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.6	10.1	23.4	12.8	-3.8	Inside
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	16.6	9.8	25.5	36.3	19.7	Above
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.1	9.7	23.1	16.5	0.4	Inside
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.1	9.5	23	35.4	19.3	Above
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.8	9.3	22.9	11.2	-4.6	Inside
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.7	9	22.9	19.7	4	Inside
James Cook	RB	BUF	15.7	8.8	24.6	16.7	1	Inside
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	15.7	8.2	26	20.2	4.5	Inside
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	15.5	8.8	22.4	3.8	-11.7	Below
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	15.3	8.9	23.7	13.6	-1.7	Inside
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	15.3	8.6	24.1	3.1	-12.2	Below
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.2	8.9	21.9	15.7	0.5	Inside
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	15.2	8.3	25.2	9.3	-5.9	Inside
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	14.9	7.9	24.3	31.5	16.6	Above
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	14.8	8.6	22.9	26.7	11.9	Above
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	14.8	7.7	24.1	33.5	18.7	Above
Sam Darnold	QB	—	14.7	8.5	21.4	0	-14.7	Below
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	14.6	8.4	22.6	9.1	-5.5	Inside
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	8.1	20.9	20.3	6	Inside
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	14.1	7.9	22.3	22.4	8.3	Above
Kyler Murray	QB	—	13.9	8.1	20.1	0	-13.9	Below
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	13.9	7.5	23	16.6	2.7	Inside
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.7	7.7	20.1	7.4	-6.3	Below
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	13.7	7	23.2	22.3	8.6	Inside
George Kittle	TE	SF	13.7	7	23.3	9.8	-3.9	Inside
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	13.6	7.6	21.4	28.5	14.9	Above
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	13.6	7.5	21.7	9.4	-4.2	Inside
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	13.4	7.3	19.7	13.5	0.1	Inside
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	13.4	7.7	21	5.4	-8	Below
Deshaun Watson	QB	—	13.3	8.1	19.3	0	-13.3	Below
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	13	6.8	21.6	12.4	-0.6	Inside
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	12.5	7	19.9	10.5	-2	Inside
Christian Watson	WR	GB	12.4	6.2	21.3	30.1	17.7	Above
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	12.3	6.2	20.9	32.4	20.1	Above
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	12.2	6.8	18	10.4	-1.8	Inside
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	12.2	6.3	19.9	0.5	-11.7	Below
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	12.2	6.4	20.9	20.7	8.5	Inside
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	12	6.2	20.3	5.3	-6.7	Below
Chris Olave	WR	NO	12	6.2	20.8	16.8	4.8	Inside
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	11.8	6.3	19.1	14.8	3	Inside
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	11.8	4	19.8	8.9	-2.9	Inside
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	11.7	5.8	19.7	7	-4.7	Inside
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	11.7	6	18.7	5.6	-6.1	Below
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	11.6	6.1	19.8	15.6	4	Inside
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	11.4	5.4	19.6	5	-6.4	Below
Drake London	WR	ATL	11.1	5.8	19.1	11.8	0.7	Inside
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	11	5.2	18.4	9.6	-1.4	Inside
Cam Skattebo	RB	—	11	6	17.8	0	-11	Below
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	11	5.5	18.3	5.5	-5.5	Inside
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	10.9	5.3	19.6	12	1.1	Inside
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	10.7	5.1	19	9.9	-0.8	Inside
George Pickens	WR	—	10.7	5.3	18.5	0	-10.7	Below
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	10.4	5.2	17.2	18.8	8.4	Above
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	10.4	5.1	18.4	12.2	1.8	Inside
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	10.3	5.3	17.2	6.6	-3.7	Inside
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	10.2	5	17.6	16.3	6.1	Inside
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	10.1	4.7	18.4	8.8	-1.3	Inside
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	10	5.2	16.7	7.4	-2.6	Inside
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	10	4.8	17.6	9.4	-0.6	Inside
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	9.8	5	16.3	3.1	-6.7	Below
Garrett Wilson	WR	—	9.8	4.7	17.7	0	-9.8	Below
Blake Corum	RB	LA	9.6	4.3	16.2	11.8	2.2	Inside
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	9.5	4.7	16.5	8.4	-1.1	Inside
Emanuel Wilson	RB	—	9.4	4	16.2	0	-9.4	Below
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	9.4	4.7	16	8.4	-1	Inside
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	9.4	4	17.4	13.8	4.4	Inside
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	9.3	4.1	17.2	8.1	-1.2	Inside
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	9.3	4.3	16.2	1.9	-7.4	Below
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	9.1	4.4	15.5	7.9	-1.2	Inside
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	9.1	4.1	16.7	15.5	6.4	Inside
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	9.1	4.5	16.4	6.6	-2.5	Inside
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	8.9	3.9	16.8	14.1	5.2	Inside
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	8.9	4.2	16	7.2	-1.7	Inside
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	8.9	4.2	16.1	7.3	-1.6	Inside
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	8.6	4.2	15.4	4.1	-4.5	Below
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	8.5	3.7	15.1	8.9	0.4	Inside
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	8.5	3.7	16	15.2	6.7	Inside
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	8.4	3.7	14.8	8.2	-0.2	Inside
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	8.4	3.9	15.4	17.3	8.9	Above
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	8.3	3.8	15.5	3.7	-4.6	Below
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	8.3	3.5	15.9	13	4.7	Inside
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	8.3	3.6	15.5	7.3	-1	Inside
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	8.2	3.6	15.5	6.6	-1.6	Inside
Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	8.2	3.9	15.1	12.1	3.9	Inside
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	8.2	3.9	14.8	10	1.8	Inside
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	8.1	3.7	14.3	6	-2.1	Inside
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	8.1	3.4	15.2	9.5	1.4	Inside
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	8	3.7	14.8	16	8	Above
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jason Myers	K	SEA	8	4	13	6	-2	Inside
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8	4	13	4	-4	Inside
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	8	4	13	8	0	Inside
Matt Gay	K	LV	8	4	13	7	-1	Inside
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	8	4	13	10	2	Inside
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jake Bates	K	DET	8	4	13	15	7	Above
Cam Little	K	JAX	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	8	4	13	16	8	Above
Andy Borregales	K	NE	8	4	12	3	-5	Below
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	8	4	14	11	3	Inside
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	8	3	13	10	2	Inside
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	7.9	3.7	14.7	9.8	1.9	Inside
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	7.9	3.5	15.1	0	-7.9	Below
Kenny Gainwell	RB	TB	7.8	3.8	13.6	10.6	2.8	Inside
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	7.8	3.6	14.2	6.5	-1.3	Inside
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	7.7	3.5	14	5.8	-1.9	Inside
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	7.7	2.7	14.6	3.1	-4.6	Inside
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	7.7	3.7	13.9	4.2	-3.5	Inside
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	7.7	3.7	13.8	3.4	-4.3	Below
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	7.6	3.3	13.3	3.2	-4.4	Below
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	7.6	3	14.5	5.3	-2.3	Inside
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	7.6	3.7	13.5	4.7	-2.9	Inside
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	7.3	3.6	13.2	6.2	-1.1	Inside
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	7	3.1	12.8	7.8	0.8	Inside
Nick Folk	K	ATL	7	3	12	4	-3	Inside
Brandon McManus	K	LA	7	4	12	8	1	Inside
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Zane Gonzalez	K	MIA	7	4	13	10	3	Inside
Daniel Carlson	K	—	7	3	12	0	-7	Below
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	7	4	12	15	8	Above
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	7	3	11	13	6	Above
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	7	3	12	13	6	Above
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	7	3	12	3	-4	Inside
Will Reichard	K	MIN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	7	3	12	12	5	Inside
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	6.9	2.9	13.2	2.1	-4.8	Below
Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	6.7	2.4	12.7	5.9	-0.8	Inside
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	6	2.4	11.9	2.3	-3.7	Below
Chicago Bears D/ST	DST	CHI	6	2	11	14	8	Above
Denver Broncos D/ST	DST	DEN	6	2	11	7	1	Inside
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	6	2	11	9	3	Inside
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	2	11	6	0	Inside
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	6	2	11	-1	-7	Below
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	3	12	7	1	Inside
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	2	11	15	9	Above
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	5.8	2.3	11.6	11.4	5.6	Inside
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	5.6	2.2	11.1	11.7	6.1	Above
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	5	2	10	15	10	Above
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	5	1	9	3	-2	Inside
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	5	2	10	3	-2	Inside
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	5	2	10	7	2	Inside
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	5	2	10	11	6	Above
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	5	1	10	-1	-6	Below
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	5	2	10	17	12	Above
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST	DST	TB	5	1	10	11	6	Above
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	4	0	8	1	-3	Inside
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	4	1	9	1	-3	Inside

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, PPR scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (109) of (168) (64.9%); mean miss 5.3 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.

Questions

Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?: Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.
Who is the top running back for Week 10?: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 18.3 PPR points with a range of 7.5 to 33.7.
Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?: Puka Nacua (LA), projected 20.4 PPR points with a range of 7.9 to 41.5.
Who is the top tight end for Week 10?: Brock Bowers (LV), projected 13.2 PPR points with a range of 4.0 to 28.9.
Who is the top kicker for Week 10?: Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
Who is the top defense for Week 10?: Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.
What do the floor and ceiling mean?: They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
Which teams are on bye in Week 10?: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
What is points over replacement?: A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.