Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?

Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Standard points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.

Who is the top running back for Week 10?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 15.3 Standard points with a range of 5.8 to 29.7.

Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?

Puka Nacua (LA), projected 11.5 Standard points with a range of 3.5 to 27.2.

Who is the top tight end for Week 10?

Brock Bowers (LV), projected 7.9 Standard points with a range of 1.6 to 19.9.

Who is the top kicker for Week 10?

Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Standard points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.

Who is the top defense for Week 10?

Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Standard points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.

What do the floor and ceiling mean?

They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.

What is points over replacement?

A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.

Fantasy football Week 10 rankings, Standard

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Joe Burrow is Kelly's top Week 10 quarterback at 22.2 projected Standard points (range 8.5 to 35.3). 486 players are ranked across 6 positions; CHI, DEN, PHI, TB are on bye.

Week 10 rankings, Standard (486)

Showing (200) of (486) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with players at the same position (486 players)

Player	Pos	Team	Pos rank	Proj	Floor	Ceiling	Range	Over repl.	Play %	Status	Opp
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	1	22.2	8.5	35.3	26.8	6.7	96.1%	Not listed	vs PIT
Drake Maye	QB	NE	2	20.4	7	33.5	26.5	4.9	96.1%	Not listed	at DET
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	3	19.7	7	32.7	25.7	4.2	96.1%	Not listed	at NYJ
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	4	18.7	7	30.5	23.5	3.2	96.1%	Not listed	at DAL
Jordan Love	QB	GB	5	17.8	6.3	29.8	23.5	2.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIN
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	6	17.4	6.4	29	22.6	1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at TEN
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	7	17.3	6.2	29.1	22.9	1.8	96.1%	Not listed	at CLE
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	8	16.7	7	27.5	20.5	1.2	96.7%	Not listed	at NYG
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	9	16.6	5.8	27.9	22.1	1.1	96.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	10	16.4	5.6	27.6	22	0.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs CAR
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	11	15.6	5.2	26.6	21.4	0.1	96.1%	Not listed	at NO
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	12	15.5	4.8	26.6	21.8	0	96.1%	Not listed	vs SEA
Jared Goff	QB	DET	13	15.3	5.5	25.8	20.3	-0.2	96.1%	Not listed	vs NE
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	1	15.3	5.8	29.7	23.9	8	100%	Not listed	vs NE
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	14	15.1	5.1	25.9	20.8	-0.4	96.1%	Not listed	at ARI
James Cook	RB	BUF	2	15	5.7	29.5	23.8	7.7	100%	Not listed	at NYJ
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	15	14.9	5	25.5	20.5	-0.6	96.1%	Not listed	at ATL
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	3	14	5.2	27.6	22.4	6.7	100%	Not listed	at ATL
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	16	13.6	4.2	23.7	19.5	-1.9	96.1%	Not listed	at CIN
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	17	13.5	4.3	23.3	19	-2	96.1%	Not listed	vs BUF
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	18	13.1	3.8	22.8	19	-2.4	96.1%	Not listed	vs KC
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	4	13	3.9	27	23.1	5.7	100%	Not listed	at DAL
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	19	12.9	2.9	23.2	20.3	-2.6	96.1%	Not listed	at IND
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	5	12.8	5.2	25	19.8	5.5	100%	Not listed	at CIN
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	6	12.7	4.5	25.7	21.2	5.4	100%	Not listed	vs JAX
Cam Ward	QB	TEN	20	12.7	4	22.1	18.1	-2.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs JAX
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	7	12.5	5	24.6	19.6	5.2	100%	Not listed	vs KC
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	8	12.1	4.2	24.5	20.3	4.8	100%	Not listed	vs SF
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	9	12	4.5	24.2	19.7	4.7	100%	Not listed	at NO
Drew Lock	QB	SEA	21	11.8	3.8	21.3	17.5	-3.7	96.1%	Not listed	at LV
Daniel Jones	QB	IND	22	11.7	3.1	20.9	17.8	-3.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs MIA
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	1	11.5	3.5	27.2	23.7	7.6	99.6%	Not listed	at ARI
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	23	11.1	3.2	19.7	16.5	-4.4	96.1%	Not listed	at BAL
Shedeur Sanders	QB	CLE	24	10.7	2.8	19.3	16.5	-4.8	96.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	2	10.5	3	25.1	22.1	6.6	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	3	10.4	2.9	24.6	21.7	6.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	10	10.2	3.6	21.2	17.6	2.9	100%	Not listed	at ARI
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	10	10.2	2.8	22.4	19.6	2.9	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Carson Wentz	QB	MIN	25	10.1	2.1	19.2	17.1	-5.4	96.1%	Not listed	at GB
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	12	10	3.4	20.9	17.5	2.7	100%	Not listed	vs MIA
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	13	9.5	3.3	20.1	16.8	2.2	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	26	9.5	0	20.4	20.4	-6	69.1%	Not listed	vs HOU
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	4	9.5	2.5	22.2	19.7	5.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
J.J. McCarthy	QB	NYG	26	9.5	3.2	17.5	14.3	-6	96.7%	Not listed	vs WAS
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	5	9.4	2.6	22.5	19.9	5.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	14	9.3	3.5	20	16.5	2	100%	Not listed	vs BUF
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	15	9.2	2.7	20.4	17.7	1.9	100%	Not listed	at LV
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	1	9	3	17	14	1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	16	9	3.2	19.3	16.1	1.7	100%	Not listed	at IND
Audric Estime	RB	NO	17	8.9	2.3	20.1	17.8	1.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Christian Watson	WR	GB	6	8.7	2.4	21.8	19.4	4.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	18	8.4	0.8	19.3	18.5	1.1	91%	Not listed	at LV
Blake Corum	RB	LA	18	8.4	2.2	19.4	17.2	1.1	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	7	8.3	2.3	20.8	18.5	4.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	20	8.1	2.7	18.7	16	0.8	99.3%	Not listed	vs BUF
Chris Boswell	K	PIT	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at CLE
Harrison Butker	K	KC	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs PIT
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	2	8	3	16	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs SF
Jake Bates	K	DET	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
Cam Little	K	JAX	2	8	3	17	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Andy Borregales	K	NE	2	8	2	15	13	0	99.8%	Not listed	at DET
Trey Smack	K	GB	2	8	2	16	14	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	1	8	2	17	15	2	100%	—	vs MIN
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	1	8	2	16	14	2	100%	—	at CLE
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	21	7.9	2.6	18.2	15.6	0.6	100%	Not listed	at DET
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	21	7.9	2.4	18.7	16.3	0.6	100%	Not listed	vs LA
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	1	7.9	1.6	19.9	18.3	4.1	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	21	7.9	2.1	18.3	16.2	0.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	8	7.7	2.4	19.4	17	3.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	9	7.3	2.2	18.7	16.5	3.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	24	7.3	2.3	17.5	15.2	0	100%	Not listed	at CLE
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	24	7.3	0	18.5	18.5	0	83.5%	Not listed	vs WAS
Gardner Minshew	QB	ARI	28	7.2	0	19.2	19.2	-8.3	96.1%	Not listed	vs LA
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	26	7.1	2.4	16.8	14.4	-0.2	100%	Not listed	vs PIT
Nick Folk	K	ATL	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Brandon McManus	K	LA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Jason Myers	K	SEA	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at LV
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs BUF
Joey Slye	K	TEN	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs JAX
Matt Gay	K	LV	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs SEA
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at BAL
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	10	7	1.3	18.5	17.2	3.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	13	7	1	15	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Will Reichard	K	MIN	13	7	1	16	15	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Ryan Fitzgerald	K	CAR	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Dominic Zvada	K	NYG	13	7	2	16	14	-1	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
Drew Stevens	K	WAS	13	7	2	15	13	-1	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	3	7	1	16	15	1	100%	—	at TEN
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	3	7	2	16	14	1	100%	—	at ARI
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	3	7	1	15	14	1	100%	—	at LV
Chris Olave	WR	NO	11	6.9	2.1	17.8	15.7	3	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	11	6.9	2	18.1	16.1	3	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	2	6.7	1.3	16.7	15.4	2.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs WAS
George Kittle	TE	SF	3	6.6	1.4	17.2	15.8	2.8	99.8%	Not listed	at DAL
Joe Fagnano	QB	BAL	29	6.6	0.6	13.8	13.2	-8.9	96.1%	Not listed	vs LAC
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	27	6.5	1.1	16.8	15.7	-0.8	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13	6.5	1.9	17	15.1	2.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	13	6.5	1.9	17.4	15.5	2.6	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	28	6.3	0.9	16.8	15.9	-1	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	28	6.3	1.5	16.3	14.8	-1	100%	Not listed	vs SEA
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	15	6.2	1.2	17.8	16.6	2.3	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	30	6.1	1.7	15.7	14	-1.2	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	31	6	1.3	16.3	15	-1.3	100%	Not listed	at NYG
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	4	6	1.4	16.2	14.8	2.2	99.8%	Not listed	vs LA
Joshua Karty	K	LA	26	6	1	13	12	-2	99.8%	Not listed	at ARI
Baltimore Ravens D/ST	DST	BAL	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs LAC
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	at NYJ
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs HOU
Indianapolis Colts D/ST	DST	IND	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs MIA
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	6	1	15	14	0	100%	—	at GB
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	6	0	14	14	0	100%	—	vs CAR
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	6	1	14	13	0	100%	—	vs WAS
Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	32	5.8	1.1	15.7	14.6	-1.5	99.3%	Not listed	at CIN
Drake London	WR	ATL	16	5.8	1.9	15.6	13.7	1.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	17	5.7	1.2	17.2	16	1.8	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	18	5.5	1.1	16.4	15.3	1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	18	5.5	1.1	16.7	15.6	1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	33	5.4	1.6	14.8	13.2	-1.9	99.3%	Not listed	at GB
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	20	5.4	1.2	16.3	15.1	1.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs LA
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	34	5.3	1.5	14.2	12.7	-2	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	35	5.2	1	14.8	13.8	-2.1	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	35	5.2	1.1	14.9	13.8	-2.1	100%	Not listed	vs LAC
Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	35	5.2	0.8	15.1	14.3	-2.1	100%	Not listed	vs WAS
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	21	5.2	1.1	15.8	14.7	1.3	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	21	5.2	1.2	15.9	14.7	1.3	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Kaelon Black	RB	SF	38	5	1.4	13.8	12.4	-2.3	99.3%	Not listed	at DAL
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	13	5	-1	12	13	-1	100%	—	vs KC
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	vs PIT
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	vs NE
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at ATL
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at BAL
Las Vegas Raiders D/ST	DST	LV	13	5	0	12	12	-1	100%	—	vs SEA
Miami Dolphins D/ST	DST	MIA	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at IND
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST	DST	PIT	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at CIN
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	13	5	-1	12	13	-1	100%	—	at DAL
Tennessee Titans D/ST	DST	TEN	13	5	-1	13	14	-1	100%	—	vs JAX
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	13	5	0	13	13	-1	100%	—	at NYG
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	23	4.9	1.1	15.5	14.4	1	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	23	4.9	1.1	15.2	14.1	1	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	25	4.8	0.9	15.3	14.4	0.9	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	5	4.7	1	14.2	13.2	0.9	99.8%	Not listed	vs HOU
Jadarian Price	RB	SEA	39	4.7	0.8	13.6	12.8	-2.6	99.3%	Not listed	at LV
Emmett Johnson	RB	KC	40	4.6	0.8	13.9	13.1	-2.7	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	26	4.6	1	14.3	13.3	0.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	27	4.5	0.9	14.6	13.7	0.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs SEA
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	27	4.5	0.1	14.6	14.5	0.6	94%	Not listed	vs JAX
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	6	4.4	1.1	13.6	12.5	0.6	99.8%	Not listed	at ATL
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	29	4.4	1	14	13	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	30	4.3	0.9	13.8	12.9	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	30	4.3	0.9	13.7	12.8	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Darren Waller	TE	CAR	7	4.2	1	13.8	12.8	0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at NO
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	32	4.2	1	13.6	12.6	0.3	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	7	4.2	1	12.9	11.9	0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at GB
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	32	4.2	0.9	13.4	12.5	0.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	32	4.2	0.9	14.2	13.3	0.3	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	41	4.1	0.7	13.3	12.6	-3.2	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	9	4	0.9	13.1	12.2	0.2	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	9	4	1	12.9	11.9	0.2	99.8%	Not listed	vs NE
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	42	4	0.8	11.7	10.9	-3.3	100%	Not listed	vs HOU
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	24	4	-1	11	12	-2	100%	—	vs LA
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	24	4	-1	11	12	-2	100%	—	at NO
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	24	4	-2	11	13	-2	100%	—	vs SF
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	24	4	-1	12	13	-2	100%	—	at DET
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	35	3.9	0.8	12.4	11.6	0	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	35	3.9	0.9	13.4	12.5	0	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	35	3.9	0.9	12.8	11.9	0	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	35	3.9	0.8	13.1	12.3	0	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	35	3.9	0.8	12.1	11.3	0	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Seth McGowan	RB	IND	43	3.9	0.6	13	12.4	-3.4	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	11	3.8	0.9	12.2	11.3	0	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	11	3.8	0.9	12.4	11.5	0	99.8%	Not listed	at NYJ
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	40	3.8	0.8	12.6	11.8	-0.1	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	40	3.8	0.9	12.9	12	-0.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	11	3.8	1	12.5	11.5	0	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIA
Corey Kiner	RB	NE	44	3.8	0.5	13.4	12.9	-3.5	99.3%	Not listed	at DET
Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	45	3.7	0.6	12.8	12.2	-3.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs PIT
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	42	3.7	0.2	14.1	13.9	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Kaleb Johnson	RB	GB	45	3.7	0.5	12.9	12.4	-3.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	45	3.7	0.6	12.6	12	-3.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs SEA
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	42	3.7	0.8	12.5	11.7	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	44	3.6	0.8	12	11.2	-0.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
George Pickens	WR	DAL	45	3.5	0	14.1	14.1	-0.4	69.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Tyler Goodson	RB	DAL	48	3.4	0.6	11.2	10.6	-3.9	99.3%	Not listed	vs SF
Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	48	3.4	0.6	11	10.4	-3.9	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	14	3.4	0.9	11.1	10.2	-0.4	99.8%	Not listed	at TEN
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	14	3.4	0.5	12.8	12.3	-0.4	99.8%	Not listed	vs MIN
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	46	3.4	0.1	11.9	11.8	-0.5	94%	Not listed	at BAL
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	47	3.3	0	13.1	13.1	-0.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Michael Carter	RB	TEN	50	3.2	0	10.7	10.7	-4.1	91%	Not listed	vs JAX
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	16	3.2	0.4	13	12.6	-0.6	99.8%	Not listed	vs KC
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	16	3.2	0.8	10.6	9.8	-0.6	99.8%	Not listed	at NYG
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	18	3.1	0.4	12.3	11.9	-0.7	99.8%	Not listed	at CIN
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	48	3.1	0.2	12.3	12.1	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	48	3.1	0	13	13	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	19	3	0.4	12.3	11.9	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Starter average	—	—	—	8.4	2.4	18.8	16.4	1.9	99.1%	—	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, Standard scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-13+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (QB1–QB12, RB1–RB24, WR1–WR36, TE1–TE12, K1–K12, DST1–DST12); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)

Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (107) of (168), 63.7%; mean miss 4.7 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.

Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)

Player	Pos	Team	Projected	Low	High	Scored	Miss	In range
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	22.3	14	31.2	29.5	7.2	Inside
Drake Maye	QB	NE	19.8	12.1	27.7	18.3	-1.5	Inside
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.7	12	28	12.9	-6.8	Inside
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	18.5	11.4	26.2	25.3	6.8	Inside
Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.6	10.7	24.9	5.3	-12.3	Below
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	17.3	10.2	26.8	13.4	-3.9	Inside
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.2	10.3	24.4	12.6	-4.6	Inside
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.1	10.4	24.4	19.5	2.4	Inside
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	16.8	10.2	23.5	14.6	-2.2	Inside
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.7	9.7	23.9	36.2	19.5	Above
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.7	9.7	23.8	13.6	-3.1	Inside
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.6	10.1	23.4	12.8	-3.8	Inside
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.1	9.7	23.1	16.5	0.4	Inside
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.1	9.5	23	35.4	19.3	Above
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.8	9.3	22.9	11.2	-4.6	Inside
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.7	9	22.9	19.7	4	Inside
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	15.5	8.8	22.4	3.8	-11.7	Below
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.2	8.9	21.9	15.7	0.5	Inside
Sam Darnold	QB	—	14.7	8.5	21.4	0	-14.7	Below
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	8.1	20.9	20.3	6	Inside
James Cook	RB	BUF	14	7.6	22.5	16.7	2.7	Inside
Kyler Murray	QB	—	13.9	8.1	20.1	0	-13.9	Below
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	13.8	7.6	22	32.3	18.5	Above
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.7	7.7	20.1	7.4	-6.3	Below
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	13.5	6.8	22	20.7	7.2	Inside
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	13.4	7.3	19.7	13.5	0.1	Inside
Deshaun Watson	QB	—	13.3	8.1	19.3	0	-13.3	Below
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	12.5	6.2	20.6	3.1	-9.4	Below
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	12.5	6.3	20.1	18.4	5.9	Inside
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	12.4	6.8	20	20.7	8.3	Above
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	12.2	6.8	18	10.4	-1.8	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	12.2	5.6	21.6	5.1	-7.1	Below
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	12.1	6.4	19.6	9.6	-2.5	Inside
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	11.9	6.2	19.2	24.5	12.6	Above
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	11.4	6	18.7	6.1	-5.3	Inside
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	11.2	5.6	18.5	4.4	-6.8	Below
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	11	5.8	18.1	3.4	-7.6	Below
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	10.1	4.8	16.7	5.6	-4.5	Inside
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	9.9	4.6	18.1	15.2	5.3	Inside
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	9.7	3.2	17.1	8.9	-0.8	Inside
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	9.7	4.5	17.8	21	11.3	Above
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	9.2	4	16	0.5	-8.7	Below
Cam Skattebo	RB	—	9.2	4.9	15.6	0	-9.2	Below
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	9	4.4	15.4	6.4	-2.6	Inside
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	8.9	4.4	15.4	11.8	2.9	Inside
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	8.9	3.5	15.6	8.6	-0.3	Inside
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	8.8	3.8	15.8	21.5	12.7	Above
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	8.6	3.8	15.2	4.5	-4.1	Inside
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	8.5	4.1	16	4.3	-4.2	Inside
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	8.4	3.5	15.6	23.5	15.1	Above
George Kittle	TE	SF	8.4	3.1	15.6	5.8	-2.6	Inside
Blake Corum	RB	LA	8.2	3.3	14.6	11.8	3.6	Inside
Emanuel Wilson	RB	—	8.1	3.4	14.8	0	-8.1	Below
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	8.1	3.1	15.4	15.3	7.2	Inside
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	8	3.6	14.1	14.8	6.8	Above
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jason Myers	K	SEA	8	4	13	6	-2	Inside
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8	4	13	4	-4	Inside
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	8	4	13	8	0	Inside
Matt Gay	K	LV	8	4	13	7	-1	Inside
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	8	4	13	10	2	Inside
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jake Bates	K	DET	8	4	13	15	7	Above
Cam Little	K	JAX	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	8	4	13	16	8	Above
Andy Borregales	K	NE	8	4	12	3	-5	Below
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	8	4	14	11	3	Inside
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	8	3	13	10	2	Inside
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	7.9	4	13.9	7.5	-0.4	Inside
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	7.9	3.1	14.8	4	-3.9	Inside
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	7.8	3.2	14.4	2	-5.8	Below
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	7.8	3.5	13.9	4.6	-3.2	Inside
Christian Watson	WR	GB	7.6	3.4	14.7	23.1	15.5	Above
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	7.5	3.5	14.3	8.6	1.1	Inside
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	7.4	3.5	13.4	2.1	-5.3	Below
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	7.4	3.1	14.2	22.4	15	Above
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	7.3	3.6	13.5	7.4	0.1	Inside
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	7.3	3.3	14.1	13.7	6.4	Inside
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	7.1	3.3	13.6	2.3	-4.8	Below
Nick Folk	K	ATL	7	3	12	4	-3	Inside
Brandon McManus	K	LA	7	4	12	8	1	Inside
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Zane Gonzalez	K	MIA	7	4	13	10	3	Inside
Daniel Carlson	K	—	7	3	12	0	-7	Below
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	7	4	12	15	8	Above
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	7	3	11	13	6	Above
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	7	3	12	13	6	Above
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	7	3	12	3	-4	Inside
Will Reichard	K	MIN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	7	3	12	12	5	Inside
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	6.9	2.9	12.8	8.2	1.3	Inside
Chris Olave	WR	NO	6.5	3	13.2	9.8	3.3	Inside
Drake London	WR	ATL	6.4	3.1	12.6	6.8	0.4	Inside
George Pickens	WR	—	6.3	2.9	12.6	0	-6.3	Below
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	6.3	3	12.6	11.6	5.3	Inside
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	6.3	2.4	12.8	5.4	-0.9	Inside
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	6	2.5	11.6	2.2	-3.8	Below
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	6	2.4	12.4	5.8	-0.2	Inside
Chicago Bears D/ST	DST	CHI	6	2	11	14	8	Above
Denver Broncos D/ST	DST	DEN	6	2	11	7	1	Inside
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	6	2	11	9	3	Inside
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	2	11	6	0	Inside
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	6	2	11	-1	-7	Below
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	3	12	7	1	Inside
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	2	11	15	9	Above
Kenny Gainwell	RB	TB	5.9	2.9	11.4	7.6	1.7	Inside
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	5.9	2.1	11.8	6.9	1	Inside
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	5.9	2.4	12.6	6	0.1	Inside
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	5.8	2.5	11.6	6	0.2	Inside
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	5.7	2.1	12.3	4.9	-0.8	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	5.7	2.2	11.9	10.2	4.5	Inside
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	5.6	2.2	11.2	4.9	-0.7	Inside
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	5.5	2.5	11.3	4.2	-1.3	Inside
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5.5	2	12.1	5.8	0.3	Inside
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	5.4	2	11.2	11.3	5.9	Above
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	5.4	1.2	10.8	1.1	-4.3	Below
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	5.3	2.6	10.8	-0.3	-5.6	Below
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	5.3	2.1	11.9	12.1	6.8	Above
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	5.2	2	11.3	11.5	6.3	Above
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	5.1	1.7	11.6	5.1	0	Inside
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	5	1.9	11.4	7	2	Inside
Garrett Wilson	WR	—	5	2	11.3	0	-5	Below
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	5	1.9	10.8	5.4	0.4	Inside
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	5	2	10	15	10	Above
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	5	1	9	3	-2	Inside
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	5	2	10	3	-2	Inside
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	5	2	10	7	2	Inside
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	5	2	10	11	6	Above
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	5	1	10	-1	-6	Below
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	5	2	10	17	12	Above
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST	DST	TB	5	1	10	11	6	Above
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	4.8	1.8	11.4	10.2	5.4	Inside
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	4.8	1.9	10.5	0.9	-3.9	Below
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	4.8	1.9	10.5	3.2	-1.6	Inside
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	4.7	1.8	10.9	5.5	0.8	Inside
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	4.6	1.7	10.7	5.3	0.7	Inside
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	4.5	1.9	10	12	7.5	Above
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	4.5	1.8	10.6	0	-4.5	Below
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	4.5	1.7	10.5	2.6	-1.9	Inside
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	4.4	1.7	10.2	3.3	-1.1	Inside
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	4.4	1.9	10	13.3	8.9	Above
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	4.2	1.6	10.2	1.7	-2.5	Inside
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	4.2	1.8	9.7	2.6	-1.6	Inside
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	4.2	1.6	10.1	3.6	-0.6	Inside
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	4.2	1.6	10	1.6	-2.6	Inside
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	4.2	1.7	9.7	4.4	0.2	Inside
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	4.1	1.7	9.6	2.1	-2	Inside
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	4.1	1.7	9.4	2.8	-1.3	Inside
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	4	0	8	1	-3	Inside
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	4	1	9	1	-3	Inside
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	3.9	1.6	9.2	5	1.1	Inside
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	3.8	1.6	9.1	3.5	-0.3	Inside
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	3.8	1.7	8.7	2.2	-1.6	Inside
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	3.8	1.7	8.4	1.4	-2.4	Below
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	3.6	1	9.4	2.3	-1.3	Inside
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	3.5	1.5	8.1	1.7	-1.8	Inside
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	3.2	1.4	7.7	4.2	1	Inside
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	3	0.9	8.4	1.1	-1.9	Inside
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	2.7	0.8	7.7	1.3	-1.4	Inside
Darren Waller	TE	CAR	2.6	0.8	8	15	12.4	Above
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	2.5	0.8	7.6	9.4	6.9	Above

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, Standard scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (107) of (168) (63.7%); mean miss 4.7 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.

Questions

Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?: Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Standard points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.
Who is the top running back for Week 10?: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 15.3 Standard points with a range of 5.8 to 29.7.
Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?: Puka Nacua (LA), projected 11.5 Standard points with a range of 3.5 to 27.2.
Who is the top tight end for Week 10?: Brock Bowers (LV), projected 7.9 Standard points with a range of 1.6 to 19.9.
Who is the top kicker for Week 10?: Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Standard points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
Who is the top defense for Week 10?: Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Standard points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.
What do the floor and ceiling mean?: They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
Which teams are on bye in Week 10?: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
What is points over replacement?: A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.