Week 10 QB rankings, Standard
Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB
Joe Burrow is Kelly's top Week 10 quarterback at 21.8 projected Standard points (range 8.2 to 34.8). Next: Drake Maye (20.3) and Josh Allen (19.8).
Week 10 rankings, Standard (74)
Showing (74) of (74) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with players at the same position (74 players)
| Player | Pos | Team | Pos rank | Proj | Floor | Ceiling | Range | Over repl. | Play % | Status | Opp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 1 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 34.8 | 26.6 | 6.4 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs PIT |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 2 | 20.3 | 7 | 33.1 | 26.1 | 4.9 | 96.1% | Not listed | at DET |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 3 | 19.8 | 7 | 32.4 | 25.4 | 4.4 | 96.1% | Not listed | at NYJ |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 4 | 18.5 | 7.1 | 30.5 | 23.4 | 3.1 | 96.1% | Not listed | at DAL |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 5 | 17.9 | 6.1 | 29.4 | 23.3 | 2.5 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs MIN |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 6 | 17.7 | 6.5 | 28.9 | 22.4 | 2.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | at TEN |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 7 | 17.3 | 6.4 | 28.8 | 22.4 | 1.9 | 96.1% | Not listed | at CLE |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 8 | 16.8 | 7 | 27.6 | 20.6 | 1.4 | 96.7% | Not listed | at NYG |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 9 | 16.7 | 5.9 | 27.9 | 22 | 1.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs SF |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 9 | 16.7 | 5.6 | 27.5 | 21.9 | 1.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs CAR |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 11 | 15.6 | 4.9 | 26.4 | 21.5 | 0.2 | 96.1% | Not listed | at NO |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 12 | 15.4 | 4.1 | 26.7 | 22.6 | 0 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs SEA |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 13 | 15.3 | 5.1 | 26 | 20.9 | -0.1 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs NE |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 14 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 25.8 | 21 | -0.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | at ARI |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 15 | 14.9 | 4.9 | 25.4 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 96.1% | Not listed | at ATL |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 16 | 13.5 | 4.3 | 23.2 | 18.9 | -1.9 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs BUF |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 17 | 13.4 | 4.2 | 23.5 | 19.3 | -2 | 96.1% | Not listed | at CIN |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 18 | 13 | 4.1 | 23.1 | 19 | -2.4 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs KC |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 19 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 23.3 | 19.9 | -2.5 | 96.1% | Not listed | at IND |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 20 | 12.7 | 3.9 | 22.1 | 18.2 | -2.7 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs JAX |
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | 21 | 11.9 | 3.9 | 21.1 | 17.2 | -3.5 | 96.1% | Not listed | at LV |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 22 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 21 | 18.1 | -4 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs MIA |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 23 | 11.1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | -4.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | at BAL |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | 24 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 19.3 | 16.8 | -4.9 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs HOU |
| Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | 25 | 10.1 | 1.8 | 19.3 | 17.5 | -5.3 | 96.1% | Not listed | at GB |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 26 | 9.4 | 0 | 20.5 | 20.5 | -6 | 69.1% | Not listed | vs HOU |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | 26 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 17.2 | 14 | -6 | 96.7% | Not listed | vs WAS |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 28 | 7.2 | 0 | 19.3 | 19.3 | -8.2 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs LA |
| Joe Fagnano | QB | BAL | 29 | 6.7 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 13.3 | -8.7 | 96.1% | Not listed | vs LAC |
| Joe Flacco | QB | CIN | 30 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 | 9.3 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs PIT |
| Andy Dalton | QB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs KC |
| Tyrod Taylor | QB | GB | 30 | 0 | 0 | 9.6 | 9.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs MIN |
| Jameis Winston | QB | NYG | 30 | 0 | 0 | 16.5 | 16.5 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | vs WAS |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | WAS | 30 | 0 | 0 | 11.8 | 11.8 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at NYG |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 15.9 | 15.9 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs LAC |
| Mitchell Trubisky | QB | TEN | 30 | 0 | 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs JAX |
| Joshua Dobbs | QB | DET | 30 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs NE |
| Kyle Allen | QB | BUF | 30 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at NYJ |
| Mason Rudolph | QB | PIT | 30 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at CIN |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15.4 | 0% | Not listed | at LV |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -15.4 | 0% | Not listed | at GB |
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs KC |
| Davis Mills | QB | HOU | 30 | 0 | 0 | 13.3 | 13.3 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at CLE |
| Justin Fields | QB | KC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 14.7 | 14.7 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at ATL |
| Mac Jones | QB | SF | 30 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at DAL |
| Zach Wilson | QB | NO | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs CAR |
| Sam Howell | QB | DAL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs SF |
| Kenny Pickett | QB | CAR | 30 | 0 | 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at NO |
| Tommy DeVito | QB | NE | 30 | 0 | 0 | 8.6 | 8.6 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at DET |
| Aidan O'Connell | QB | LV | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs SEA |
| Stetson Bennett | QB | LA | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at ARI |
| Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs MIA |
| Spencer Rattler | QB | NO | 30 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | 10.7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs CAR |
| Kedon Slovis | QB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs LAC |
| Kyle McCord | QB | MIA | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | 6.7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at IND |
| Will Howard | QB | PIT | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at CIN |
| Riley Leonard | QB | IND | 30 | 0 | 0 | 11.3 | 11.3 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs MIA |
| Quinn Ewers | QB | JAX | 30 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at TEN |
| DJ Uiagalelei | QB | LAC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 | 11.9 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at BAL |
| Max Brosmer | QB | MIN | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | -15.4 | 39.7% | Not listed | at GB |
| Kurtis Rourke | QB | SF | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at DAL |
| Jalen Milroe | QB | SEA | 30 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at LV |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs HOU |
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | KC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at ATL |
| Cade Klubnik | QB | NYJ | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs BUF |
| Taylen Green | QB | CLE | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs HOU |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | WAS | 30 | 0 | 0 | 13.5 | 13.5 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at NYG |
| Behren Morton | QB | NE | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at DET |
| Haynes King | QB | CAR | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at NO |
| Jack Strand | QB | ATL | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 | 7.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs KC |
| Carson Beck | QB | ARI | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs LA |
| Fernando Mendoza | QB | LV | 30 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | vs SEA |
| Drew Allar | QB | PIT | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at CIN |
| Ty Simpson | QB | LA | 30 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | -15.4 | 26.6% | Not listed | at ARI |
| Starter average (QB1–QB12) | — | — | — | 17.9 | 6.3 | 29.5 | 23.2 | 2.5 | 96.1% | — | — |
| Replacement (QB12) | — | — | 12 | 15.4 | 4.1 | 26.7 | 22.6 | 0 | 96.1% | — | — |
Data as of 2026-11-14 16:17 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, Standard scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-14+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (QB1–QB12); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)
Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (107) of (168), 63.7%; mean miss 4.7 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.
Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)
| Player | Pos | Team | Projected | Low | High | Scored | Miss | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 22.3 | 14 | 31.2 | 29.5 | 7.2 | Inside |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 19.8 | 12.1 | 27.7 | 18.3 | -1.5 | Inside |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 19.7 | 12 | 28 | 12.9 | -6.8 | Inside |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 18.5 | 11.4 | 26.2 | 25.3 | 6.8 | Inside |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 17.6 | 10.7 | 24.9 | 5.3 | -12.3 | Below |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 17.3 | 10.2 | 26.8 | 13.4 | -3.9 | Inside |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | LV | 17.2 | 10.3 | 24.4 | 12.6 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 17.1 | 10.4 | 24.4 | 19.5 | 2.4 | Inside |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 16.8 | 10.2 | 23.5 | 14.6 | -2.2 | Inside |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 16.7 | 9.7 | 23.9 | 36.2 | 19.5 | Above |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 16.7 | 9.7 | 23.8 | 13.6 | -3.1 | Inside |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 16.6 | 10.1 | 23.4 | 12.8 | -3.8 | Inside |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 16.1 | 9.7 | 23.1 | 16.5 | 0.4 | Inside |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 16.1 | 9.5 | 23 | 35.4 | 19.3 | Above |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 15.8 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 11.2 | -4.6 | Inside |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 15.7 | 9 | 22.9 | 19.7 | 4 | Inside |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 15.5 | 8.8 | 22.4 | 3.8 | -11.7 | Below |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 15.2 | 8.9 | 21.9 | 15.7 | 0.5 | Inside |
| Sam Darnold | QB | — | 14.7 | 8.5 | 21.4 | 0 | -14.7 | Below |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 14.3 | 8.1 | 20.9 | 20.3 | 6 | Inside |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | 14 | 7.6 | 22.5 | 16.7 | 2.7 | Inside |
| Kyler Murray | QB | — | 13.9 | 8.1 | 20.1 | 0 | -13.9 | Below |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 13.8 | 7.6 | 22 | 32.3 | 18.5 | Above |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 13.7 | 7.7 | 20.1 | 7.4 | -6.3 | Below |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 13.5 | 6.8 | 22 | 20.7 | 7.2 | Inside |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 13.4 | 7.3 | 19.7 | 13.5 | 0.1 | Inside |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | — | 13.3 | 8.1 | 19.3 | 0 | -13.3 | Below |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 12.5 | 6.2 | 20.6 | 3.1 | -9.4 | Below |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 12.5 | 6.3 | 20.1 | 18.4 | 5.9 | Inside |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 12.4 | 6.8 | 20 | 20.7 | 8.3 | Above |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 12.2 | 6.8 | 18 | 10.4 | -1.8 | Inside |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 12.2 | 5.6 | 21.6 | 5.1 | -7.1 | Below |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 12.1 | 6.4 | 19.6 | 9.6 | -2.5 | Inside |
| Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 11.9 | 6.2 | 19.2 | 24.5 | 12.6 | Above |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 11.4 | 6 | 18.7 | 6.1 | -5.3 | Inside |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 11.2 | 5.6 | 18.5 | 4.4 | -6.8 | Below |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 11 | 5.8 | 18.1 | 3.4 | -7.6 | Below |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 10.1 | 4.8 | 16.7 | 5.6 | -4.5 | Inside |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | 9.9 | 4.6 | 18.1 | 15.2 | 5.3 | Inside |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 9.7 | 3.2 | 17.1 | 8.9 | -0.8 | Inside |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | 9.7 | 4.5 | 17.8 | 21 | 11.3 | Above |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 9.2 | 4 | 16 | 0.5 | -8.7 | Below |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | — | 9.2 | 4.9 | 15.6 | 0 | -9.2 | Below |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | MIA | 9 | 4.4 | 15.4 | 6.4 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 8.9 | 4.4 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 2.9 | Inside |
| Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | 8.9 | 3.5 | 15.6 | 8.6 | -0.3 | Inside |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | 8.8 | 3.8 | 15.8 | 21.5 | 12.7 | Above |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 8.6 | 3.8 | 15.2 | 4.5 | -4.1 | Inside |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | 8.5 | 4.1 | 16 | 4.3 | -4.2 | Inside |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | DAL | 8.4 | 3.5 | 15.6 | 23.5 | 15.1 | Above |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 8.4 | 3.1 | 15.6 | 5.8 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | 8.2 | 3.3 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 3.6 | Inside |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | — | 8.1 | 3.4 | 14.8 | 0 | -8.1 | Below |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 8.1 | 3.1 | 15.4 | 15.3 | 7.2 | Inside |
| Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | 8 | 3.6 | 14.1 | 14.8 | 6.8 | Above |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 1 | Inside |
| Jason Myers | K | SEA | 8 | 4 | 13 | 6 | -2 | Inside |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | HOU | 8 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 | Above |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8 | 4 | 13 | 4 | -4 | Inside |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | SF | 8 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 0 | Inside |
| Matt Gay | K | LV | 8 | 4 | 13 | 7 | -1 | Inside |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | TB | 8 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 2 | Inside |
| Tyler Bass | K | BUF | 8 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 5 | Inside |
| Evan McPherson | K | CIN | 8 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 5 | Inside |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | DAL | 8 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 1 | Inside |
| Jake Bates | K | DET | 8 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 7 | Above |
| Cam Little | K | JAX | 8 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 | Above |
| Spencer Shrader | K | IND | 8 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 8 | Above |
| Andy Borregales | K | NE | 8 | 4 | 12 | 3 | -5 | Below |
| Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST | DST | JAX | 8 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | Inside |
| Seattle Seahawks D/ST | DST | SEA | 8 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 2 | Inside |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 7.9 | 4 | 13.9 | 7.5 | -0.4 | Inside |
| Jameson Williams | WR | DET | 7.9 | 3.1 | 14.8 | 4 | -3.9 | Inside |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 7.8 | 3.2 | 14.4 | 2 | -5.8 | Below |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 7.8 | 3.5 | 13.9 | 4.6 | -3.2 | Inside |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 7.6 | 3.4 | 14.7 | 23.1 | 15.5 | Above |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | 7.5 | 3.5 | 14.3 | 8.6 | 1.1 | Inside |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | 7.4 | 3.5 | 13.4 | 2.1 | -5.3 | Below |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 7.4 | 3.1 | 14.2 | 22.4 | 15 | Above |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 7.3 | 3.6 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 0.1 | Inside |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | 7.3 | 3.3 | 14.1 | 13.7 | 6.4 | Inside |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | 7.1 | 3.3 | 13.6 | 2.3 | -4.8 | Below |
| Nick Folk | K | ATL | 7 | 3 | 12 | 4 | -3 | Inside |
| Brandon McManus | K | LA | 7 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 1 | Inside |
| Wil Lutz | K | DEN | 7 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 2 | Inside |
| Zane Gonzalez | K | MIA | 7 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | Inside |
| Daniel Carlson | K | — | 7 | 3 | 12 | 0 | -7 | Below |
| Jason Sanders | K | NYJ | 7 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 8 | Above |
| Cameron Dicker | K | LAC | 7 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 6 | Above |
| Andre Szmyt | K | CLE | 7 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 6 | Above |
| Chad Ryland | K | ARI | 7 | 3 | 12 | 3 | -4 | Inside |
| Will Reichard | K | MIN | 7 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 2 | Inside |
| Houston Texans D/ST | DST | HOU | 7 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 5 | Inside |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 6.9 | 2.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 1.3 | Inside |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | 6.5 | 3 | 13.2 | 9.8 | 3.3 | Inside |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | 6.4 | 3.1 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 0.4 | Inside |
| George Pickens | WR | — | 6.3 | 2.9 | 12.6 | 0 | -6.3 | Below |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | 6.3 | 3 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 5.3 | Inside |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 6.3 | 2.4 | 12.8 | 5.4 | -0.9 | Inside |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 6 | 2.5 | 11.6 | 2.2 | -3.8 | Below |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ | 6 | 2.4 | 12.4 | 5.8 | -0.2 | Inside |
| Chicago Bears D/ST | DST | CHI | 6 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 8 | Above |
| Denver Broncos D/ST | DST | DEN | 6 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 1 | Inside |
| Detroit Lions D/ST | DST | DET | 6 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 3 | Inside |
| Minnesota Vikings D/ST | DST | MIN | 6 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | Inside |
| New England Patriots D/ST | DST | NE | 6 | 2 | 11 | -1 | -7 | Below |
| New Orleans Saints D/ST | DST | NO | 6 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 1 | Inside |
| New York Giants D/ST | DST | NYG | 6 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 9 | Above |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | TB | 5.9 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 1.7 | Inside |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 5.9 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 1 | Inside |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 5.9 | 2.4 | 12.6 | 6 | 0.1 | Inside |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 5.8 | 2.5 | 11.6 | 6 | 0.2 | Inside |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | 5.7 | 2.1 | 12.3 | 4.9 | -0.8 | Inside |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 5.7 | 2.2 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.5 | Inside |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 5.6 | 2.2 | 11.2 | 4.9 | -0.7 | Inside |
| Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | 5.5 | 2.5 | 11.3 | 4.2 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | MIN | 5.5 | 2 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 0.3 | Inside |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 5.4 | 2 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.9 | Above |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | 5.4 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 1.1 | -4.3 | Below |
| Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | 5.3 | 2.6 | 10.8 | -0.3 | -5.6 | Below |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 5.3 | 2.1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.8 | Above |
| Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 5.2 | 2 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 6.3 | Above |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS | 5.1 | 1.7 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 0 | Inside |
| Caleb Douglas | WR | MIA | 5 | 1.9 | 11.4 | 7 | 2 | Inside |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | — | 5 | 2 | 11.3 | 0 | -5 | Below |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 5 | 1.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 0.4 | Inside |
| Buffalo Bills D/ST | DST | BUF | 5 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 10 | Above |
| Carolina Panthers D/ST | DST | CAR | 5 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -2 | Inside |
| Cincinnati Bengals D/ST | DST | CIN | 5 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -2 | Inside |
| Cleveland Browns D/ST | DST | CLE | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | Inside |
| Dallas Cowboys D/ST | DST | DAL | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 | Inside |
| Green Bay Packers D/ST | DST | GB | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 | Above |
| Kansas City Chiefs D/ST | DST | KC | 5 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 6 | Above |
| Los Angeles Rams D/ST | DST | LA | 5 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 7 | Above |
| Los Angeles Chargers D/ST | DST | LAC | 5 | 1 | 10 | -1 | -6 | Below |
| San Francisco 49ers D/ST | DST | SF | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 12 | Above |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST | DST | TB | 5 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | Above |
| Washington Commanders D/ST | DST | WAS | 5 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 | Inside |
| DeMario Douglas | WR | NE | 4.8 | 1.8 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 5.4 | Inside |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 4.8 | 1.9 | 10.5 | 0.9 | -3.9 | Below |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 4.8 | 1.9 | 10.5 | 3.2 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Tre Tucker | WR | LV | 4.7 | 1.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 0.8 | Inside |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | 4.6 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | Inside |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 4.5 | 1.9 | 10 | 12 | 7.5 | Above |
| Adonai Mitchell | WR | NYJ | 4.5 | 1.8 | 10.6 | 0 | -4.5 | Below |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 4.5 | 1.7 | 10.5 | 2.6 | -1.9 | Inside |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10.2 | 3.3 | -1.1 | Inside |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 4.4 | 1.9 | 10 | 13.3 | 8.9 | Above |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10.2 | 1.7 | -2.5 | Inside |
| Keenan Allen | WR | IND | 4.2 | 1.8 | 9.7 | 2.6 | -1.6 | Inside |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10.1 | 3.6 | -0.6 | Inside |
| Jahan Dotson | WR | ATL | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10 | 1.6 | -2.6 | Inside |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 4.2 | 1.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 0.2 | Inside |
| Malik Washington | WR | MIA | 4.1 | 1.7 | 9.6 | 2.1 | -2 | Inside |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 4.1 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 2.8 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Arizona Cardinals D/ST | DST | ARI | 4 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -3 | Inside |
| Atlanta Falcons D/ST | DST | ATL | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -3 | Inside |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 3.9 | 1.6 | 9.2 | 5 | 1.1 | Inside |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 3.8 | 1.6 | 9.1 | 3.5 | -0.3 | Inside |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | 3.8 | 1.7 | 8.7 | 2.2 | -1.6 | Inside |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | 3.8 | 1.7 | 8.4 | 1.4 | -2.4 | Below |
| Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | 3.6 | 1 | 9.4 | 2.3 | -1.3 | Inside |
| Michael Mayer | TE | LV | 3.5 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 1.7 | -1.8 | Inside |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 3.2 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1 | Inside |
| Mason Taylor | TE | NYJ | 3 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 1.1 | -1.9 | Inside |
| Tyler Higbee | TE | LA | 2.7 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 1.3 | -1.4 | Inside |
| Darren Waller | TE | CAR | 2.6 | 0.8 | 8 | 15 | 12.4 | Above |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 2.5 | 0.8 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 6.9 | Above |
Data as of 2026-11-14 16:17 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, Standard scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (107) of (168) (63.7%); mean miss 4.7 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.
Questions
- Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?
- Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 21.8 Standard points with a range of 8.2 to 34.8.
- Who is the top running back for Week 10?
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 15.2 Standard points with a range of 5.9 to 29.7.
- Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?
- Puka Nacua (LA), projected 11.5 Standard points with a range of 3.2 to 26.7.
- Who is the top tight end for Week 10?
- Brock Bowers (LV), projected 8.0 Standard points with a range of 1.7 to 20.4.
- Who is the top kicker for Week 10?
- Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Standard points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
- Who is the top defense for Week 10?
- Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Standard points with a range of 2.0 to 16.0.
- What do the floor and ceiling mean?
- They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
- Which teams are on bye in Week 10?
- CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
- What is points over replacement?
- A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.