Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?

Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.

Who is the top running back for Week 10?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.

Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?

Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.

Who is the top tight end for Week 10?

Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.

Who is the top kicker for Week 10?

Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.

Who is the top defense for Week 10?

Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.

What do the floor and ceiling mean?

They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.

What is points over replacement?

A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.

Week 10 WR rankings

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Puka Nacua is Kelly's top Week 10 wide receiver at 16.0 projected Half-PPR points (range 5.8 to 34.2). Next: CeeDee Lamb (14.0) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (13.8).

Week 10 rankings, Half-PPR (156)

Showing (156) of (156) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with players at the same position (156 players)

Player	Pos	Team	Pos rank	Proj	Floor	Ceiling	Range	Over repl.	Play %	Status	Opp
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	1	16	5.8	34.2	28.4	10.2	99.6%	Not listed	at ARI
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	2	14	4.7	30.4	25.7	8.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	3	13.8	4.5	30.7	26.2	8	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	4	12.7	4.1	27.9	23.8	6.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	5	12.1	3.7	26.5	22.8	6.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs PIT
Christian Watson	WR	GB	6	11.1	3.4	25.9	22.5	5.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	7	11	3.8	24.6	20.8	5.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	7	11	3.5	25.5	22	5.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIN
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	9	10.7	3.7	23.9	20.2	4.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Chris Olave	WR	NO	10	9.8	3.2	22.3	19.1	4	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	11	9.4	2.9	22	19.1	3.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	12	9.1	2.9	21.2	18.3	3.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	13	9	2.8	20.6	17.8	3.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	14	8.6	1.9	21.1	19.2	2.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Drake London	WR	ATL	15	8.1	2.7	19.2	16.5	2.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	16	7.9	2.1	20.3	18.2	2.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs LA
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	16	7.9	1.8	20.3	18.5	2.1	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	18	7.8	2.1	19.9	17.8	2	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	19	7.6	1.7	19.6	17.9	1.8	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	20	7.5	1.9	19.4	17.5	1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	20	7.5	1.7	19.6	17.9	1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	22	7.1	1.6	18.3	16.7	1.3	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	22	7.1	1.6	19.6	18	1.3	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	24	7	1.6	18.3	16.7	1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	25	6.9	1.8	18	16.2	1.1	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	26	6.7	0.7	18.1	17.4	0.9	94%	Not listed	vs JAX
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	27	6.6	1.6	17.5	15.9	0.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	28	6.3	1.6	16.2	14.6	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	28	6.3	1.1	17.7	16.6	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	28	6.3	1.4	17.2	15.8	0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs SEA
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	31	6.2	1.6	16.6	15	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at TEN
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	31	6.2	1.5	16.6	15.1	0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	33	6.1	1.5	16.7	15.2	0.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs SF
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	34	6	1.5	16	14.5	0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	35	5.9	1.4	16.2	14.8	0.1	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	36	5.8	1.4	16.3	14.9	0	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	36	5.8	1.4	15.9	14.5	0	99.6%	Not listed	at CIN
Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	38	5.6	1.1	16.1	15	-0.2	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	38	5.6	1.3	15.3	14	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at NO
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	38	5.6	1.2	15.7	14.5	-0.2	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	41	5.4	1.2	14.7	13.5	-0.4	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	42	5.3	1.2	15.2	14	-0.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	43	5.2	0.7	15.8	15.1	-0.6	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
George Pickens	WR	DAL	44	5	0	17.3	17.3	-0.8	69.1%	Not listed	vs SF
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	44	5	1.1	15	13.9	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	44	5	1	15.1	14.1	-0.8	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	47	4.7	0.9	14	13.1	-1.1	99.6%	Not listed	at ATL
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	47	4.7	0.5	14.2	13.7	-1.1	94%	Not listed	at BAL
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	49	4.6	0.9	13.7	12.8	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	49	4.6	0.5	14.5	14	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at CLE
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	49	4.6	0.5	15.2	14.7	-1.2	99.6%	Not listed	at NYJ
Josh Downs	WR	IND	52	4.4	0.5	13.9	13.4	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	52	4.4	0.5	13.5	13	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	52	4.4	0.5	14.6	14.1	-1.4	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
Efton Chism III	WR	NE	55	4.2	0.5	13.8	13.3	-1.6	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	56	4.1	0.5	13.4	12.9	-1.7	99.6%	Not listed	at DAL
Jordyn Tyson	WR	NO	57	4	0.5	12.5	12	-1.8	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	58	3.9	0.5	13.4	12.9	-1.9	99.6%	Not listed	at NYG
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	58	3.9	0	13.9	13.9	-1.9	89.5%	Not listed	at NYG
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	58	3.9	0.5	12.5	12	-1.9	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	61	3.6	0.5	12.4	11.9	-2.2	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
Dohnte Meyers	WR	CIN	62	3.5	0.5	11.4	10.9	-2.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs PIT
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	63	3.3	0.5	10.9	10.4	-2.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs HOU
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	63	3.3	0.4	11.3	10.9	-2.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	63	3.3	0.4	12.3	11.9	-2.5	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
John Metchie III	WR	CAR	66	3.1	0.5	10.9	10.4	-2.7	99.3%	Not listed	at NO
Savion Williams	WR	GB	66	3.1	0.3	11.7	11.4	-2.7	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Theo Wease Jr.	WR	LAC	68	3	0	11.8	11.8	-2.8	94%	Not listed	at BAL
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	68	3	0.2	10.7	10.5	-2.8	99.6%	Not listed	vs NE
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	70	2.9	0.2	10.3	10.1	-2.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HOU	71	2.7	0	11.4	11.4	-3.1	99.3%	Not listed	at CLE
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	71	2.7	0	11.1	11.1	-3.1	99.6%	Not listed	at LV
Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	73	2.6	0	10.3	10.3	-3.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs WAS
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	LAC	73	2.6	0.1	10	9.9	-3.2	99.6%	Not listed	at BAL
Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	75	2.5	0	10.6	10.6	-3.3	99.6%	Not listed	vs SEA
Brandin Cooks	WR	SF	76	2.4	0	10.6	10.6	-3.4	99.3%	Not listed	at DAL
Barion Brown	WR	NO	76	2.4	0	9.4	9.4	-3.4	99.3%	Not listed	vs CAR
Chris Bell	WR	MIA	76	2.4	0	9.5	9.5	-3.4	99.6%	Not listed	at IND
Kevin Coleman Jr.	WR	MIA	76	2.4	0	10.8	10.8	-3.4	99.3%	Not listed	at IND
Tutu Atwell	WR	LA	80	2.3	0	10.2	10.2	-3.5	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	81	2.1	0	9.3	9.3	-3.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs MIA
Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	81	2.1	0	10.4	10.4	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	81	2.1	0	10.3	10.3	-3.7	99.6%	Not listed	at DET
Konata Mumpfield	WR	LA	81	2.1	0	9.7	9.7	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
Jack Bech	WR	LV	81	2.1	0	9.6	9.6	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	vs SEA
Ja'Kobi Lane	WR	BAL	81	2.1	0	9.3	9.3	-3.7	99.6%	Not listed	vs LAC
Reggie Virgil	WR	ARI	81	2.1	0	9.3	9.3	-3.7	99.3%	Not listed	vs LA
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	88	2	0	10.2	10.2	-3.8	94%	Not listed	at TEN
Tim Patrick	WR	NYJ	89	1.9	0	9.4	9.4	-3.9	94%	Not listed	vs BUF
Calvin Ridley	WR	TEN	89	1.9	0	8.4	8.4	-3.9	99.6%	Not listed	vs JAX
Josh Cameron	WR	JAX	89	1.9	0	8.9	8.9	-3.9	99.3%	Not listed	at TEN
Cody White	WR	LV	92	1.8	0	9.5	9.5	-4	94%	Not listed	vs SEA
Mitchell Tinsley	WR	CIN	92	1.8	0	8.7	8.7	-4	99.3%	Not listed	vs PIT
Jacob Cowing	WR	SF	92	1.8	0	8.3	8.3	-4	99.3%	Not listed	at DAL
Devontez Walker	WR	BAL	92	1.8	0	9.9	9.9	-4	94%	Not listed	vs LAC
Elijah Sarratt	WR	BAL	92	1.8	0	8.9	8.9	-4	94%	Not listed	vs LAC
Brandon Smith	WR	PIT	97	1.7	0	8.4	8.4	-4.1	94%	Not listed	at CIN
Isaiah Bond	WR	CLE	97	1.7	0	8.1	8.1	-4.1	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Isaiah Williams	WR	NYJ	99	1.6	0	9.1	9.1	-4.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs BUF
Cyrus Allen	WR	KC	99	1.6	0	7.8	7.8	-4.2	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Bryce Lance	WR	NO	99	1.6	0	8.5	8.5	-4.2	99.6%	Not listed	vs CAR
Jared Wayne	WR	MIA	102	1.5	0	7.6	7.6	-4.3	99.3%	Not listed	at IND
Jalen Royals	WR	KC	102	1.5	0	7.7	7.7	-4.3	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Deion Burks	WR	IND	102	1.5	0	7.7	7.7	-4.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
Jalen Tolbert	WR	MIA	105	1.4	0	7.5	7.5	-4.4	94%	Not listed	at IND
Brycen Tremayne	WR	CAR	105	1.4	0	7.7	7.7	-4.4	99.3%	Not listed	at NO
Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	107	1.2	0	8	8	-4.6	94%	Not listed	at CIN
Jonathan Mingo	WR	DAL	107	1.2	0	6.8	6.8	-4.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs SF
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR	LV	107	1.2	0	6.9	6.9	-4.6	94%	Not listed	vs SEA
Colbie Young	WR	CIN	107	1.2	0	7.2	7.2	-4.6	94%	Not listed	vs PIT
Tai Felton	WR	MIN	111	1.1	0	7.1	7.1	-4.7	94%	Not listed	at GB
CJ Daniels	WR	LA	111	1.1	0	6.7	6.7	-4.7	94%	Not listed	at ARI
C.J. Williams	WR	JAX	113	1	0	6.5	6.5	-4.8	94%	Not listed	at TEN
Harrison Wallace III	WR	ARI	113	1	0	6.7	6.7	-4.8	94%	Not listed	vs LA
Charlie Jones	WR	NYG	115	0.9	0	6.7	6.7	-4.9	95.4%	Not listed	vs WAS
Myles Price	WR	MIN	115	0.9	0	7.1	7.1	-4.9	99.6%	Not listed	at GB
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	ATL	117	0.8	0	7	7	-5	99.6%	Not listed	vs KC
Devin Duvernay	WR	ARI	118	0.7	0	6.6	6.6	-5.1	99.3%	Not listed	vs LA
Derius Davis	WR	LAC	118	0.7	0	7.5	7.5	-5.1	99.3%	Not listed	at BAL
Tylan Wallace	WR	CLE	120	0.6	0	6.5	6.5	-5.2	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Jalin Hyatt	WR	NYG	120	0.6	0	6.6	6.6	-5.2	99.3%	Not listed	vs WAS
Andrew Armstrong	WR	KC	120	0.6	0	6.5	6.5	-5.2	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	MIN	123	0.5	0	6.8	6.8	-5.3	94%	Not listed	at GB
DeAndre Carter	WR	DET	123	0.5	0	6	6	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs NE
David Moore	WR	CAR	123	0.5	0	6.2	6.2	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	at NO
Trent Sherfield	WR	BUF	123	0.5	0	6.2	6.2	-5.3	94%	Not listed	at NYJ
Bo Melton	WR	GB	123	0.5	0	6.4	6.4	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Dareke Young	WR	LV	123	0.5	0	6	6	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs SEA
Tay Martin	WR	DET	123	0.5	0	6	6	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs NE
Luke McCaffrey	WR	WAS	123	0.5	0	6.4	6.4	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	at NYG
Jordan Whittington	WR	LA	123	0.5	0	6	6	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	at ARI
Anthony Gould	WR	IND	123	0.5	0	6.1	6.1	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIA
LaJohntay Wester	WR	BAL	123	0.5	0	6.5	6.5	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs LAC
Malik Benson	WR	LV	123	0.5	0	6.3	6.3	-5.3	94%	Not listed	vs SEA
Camden Brown	WR	DAL	123	0.5	0	6.5	6.5	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs SF
J. Michael Sturdivant	WR	GB	123	0.5	0	6.5	6.5	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Malik McClain	WR	NYJ	123	0.5	0	6.1	6.1	-5.3	99.3%	Not listed	vs BUF
Skyler Bell	WR	BUF	123	0.5	0	6.6	6.6	-5.3	94%	Not listed	at NYJ
Greg Dortch	WR	BUF	139	0.4	0	6	6	-5.4	99.3%	Not listed	at NYJ
Simi Fehoko	WR	ARI	139	0.4	0	6	6	-5.4	99.3%	Not listed	vs LA
Irvin Charles	WR	SEA	139	0.4	0	6	6	-5.4	94%	Not listed	at LV
Kaden Wetjen	WR	PIT	139	0.4	0	6	6	-5.4	99.3%	Not listed	at CIN
Chris Blair	WR	ATL	143	0.3	0	6	6	-5.5	99.3%	Not listed	vs KC
Nikko Remigio	WR	KC	143	0.3	0	5.5	5.5	-5.5	99.3%	Not listed	at ATL
Malachi Corley	WR	CLE	143	0.3	0	6	6	-5.5	99.3%	Not listed	vs HOU
Beaux Collins	WR	ATL	143	0.3	0	5.4	5.4	-5.5	69.1%	Not listed	vs KC
Coleman Owen	WR	GB	147	0.2	0	6	6	-5.6	99.3%	Not listed	vs MIN
Mike Evans	WR	SF	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	at DAL
A.J. Brown	WR	NE	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	at DET
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR	SF	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	at DAL
Jauan Jennings	WR	MIN	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	at GB
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	at LV
Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	vs BUF
KaVontae Turpin	WR	DAL	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	vs SF
Zachariah Branch	WR	ATL	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0%	Not listed	vs KC
Brenen Thompson	WR	LAC	148	0	0	0	0	-5.8	0.8%	Not listed	at BAL
Starter average (WR1–WR36)	—	—	—	8.5	2.4	20.8	18.4	2.7	99.4%	—	—
Replacement (WR36)	—	—	36	5.8	1.4	16.3	14.9	0	99.6%	—	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, Half-PPR scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-13+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (WR1–WR36); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)

Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (113) of (168), 67.3%; mean miss 5.0 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.

Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)

Player	Pos	Team	Projected	Low	High	Scored	Miss	In range
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	22.3	14	31.2	29.5	7.2	Inside
Drake Maye	QB	NE	19.8	12.1	27.7	18.3	-1.5	Inside
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.7	12	28	12.9	-6.8	Inside
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	19.3	11.8	29.2	13.4	-5.9	Inside
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	18.5	11.4	26.2	25.3	6.8	Inside
Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.6	10.7	24.9	5.3	-12.3	Below
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.2	10.3	24.4	12.6	-4.6	Inside
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.1	10.4	24.4	19.5	2.4	Inside
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	16.8	10.2	23.5	14.6	-2.2	Inside
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.7	9.7	23.9	36.2	19.5	Above
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.7	9.7	23.8	13.6	-3.1	Inside
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.6	10.1	23.4	12.8	-3.8	Inside
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.1	9.7	23.1	16.5	0.4	Inside
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.1	9.5	23	35.4	19.3	Above
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	15.9	8.7	24.9	21.7	5.8	Inside
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.8	9.3	22.9	11.2	-4.6	Inside
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.7	9	22.9	19.7	4	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	15.6	8.1	26.3	8.6	-7	Inside
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	15.5	8.8	22.4	3.8	-11.7	Below
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.2	8.9	21.9	15.7	0.5	Inside
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	15.1	8.8	23.8	34.3	19.2	Above
James Cook	RB	BUF	14.8	8.2	23.6	16.7	1.9	Inside
Sam Darnold	QB	—	14.7	8.5	21.4	0	-14.7	Below
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	8.1	20.9	20.3	6	Inside
Kyler Murray	QB	—	13.9	8.1	20.1	0	-13.9	Below
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.9	7.5	22.3	3.1	-10.8	Below
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	13.9	7.4	23.3	28	14.1	Above
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.7	7.7	20.1	7.4	-6.3	Below
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13.7	7.7	21.6	11.6	-2.1	Inside
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13.6	7.8	21.4	23.7	10.1	Above
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	13.4	7.3	19.7	13.5	0.1	Inside
Deshaun Watson	QB	—	13.3	8.1	19.3	0	-13.3	Below
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	13.3	7.1	21.2	20.4	7.1	Inside
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	13	7.2	20.6	7.6	-5.4	Inside
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	12.8	6.9	20.2	26.5	13.7	Above
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	12.8	6.5	22	17.7	4.9	Inside
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	12.3	6.6	20	6.9	-5.4	Inside
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	12.2	6.8	18	10.4	-1.8	Inside
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	12.2	6.8	19.6	4.4	-7.8	Below
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11.8	6.3	20.5	6.8	-5	Inside
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	11.8	5.9	20	26.5	14.7	Above
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	11.6	5.7	19.9	28.5	16.9	Above
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	10.9	5.4	17.7	5.6	-5.3	Inside
George Kittle	TE	SF	10.9	5.1	19.4	7.8	-3.1	Inside
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	10.9	5.2	19.2	18.8	7.9	Inside
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	10.8	5.6	18.7	12.6	1.8	Inside
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	10.7	3.6	18.5	8.9	-1.8	Inside
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	10.7	5.2	17.9	0.5	-10.2	Below
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10.3	5.4	17.2	13.3	3	Inside
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	10.2	5.6	16.9	9	-1.2	Inside
Cam Skattebo	RB	—	10.1	5.5	16.7	0	-10.1	Below
Christian Watson	WR	GB	10.1	4.8	18	26.6	16.5	Above
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	9.9	4.4	17	9.1	-0.8	Inside
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	9.9	4.7	17.5	27.4	17.5	Above
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	9.8	4.7	16.7	5	-4.8	Inside
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	9.8	4.6	17	4.5	-5.3	Below
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	9.8	4.9	17.5	17.2	7.4	Inside
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	9.7	4.6	17	8.9	-0.8	Inside
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	9.6	4.3	17.2	4.5	-5.1	Inside
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	9.6	4.8	16.8	3.8	-5.8	Below
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	9.5	4.8	16	6.9	-2.6	Inside
Chris Olave	WR	NO	9.3	4.6	16.9	13.3	4	Inside
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	9.2	4.5	15.7	16.8	7.6	Above
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	9	4.4	15.5	5.6	-3.4	Inside
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	9	4.6	16.1	13.6	4.6	Inside
Blake Corum	RB	LA	8.9	3.8	15.4	11.8	2.9	Inside
Drake London	WR	ATL	8.8	4.5	15.8	9.3	0.5	Inside
Emanuel Wilson	RB	—	8.7	3.7	15.5	0	-8.7	Below
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	8.6	4.3	14.8	2.6	-6	Below
George Pickens	WR	—	8.5	4.1	15.5	0	-8.5	Below
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	8.4	4.2	14.7	7.9	-0.5	Inside
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	8.4	3.9	16	9	0.6	Inside
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	8.4	3.7	15.7	7.4	-1	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	8.1	3.7	15.1	11.2	3.1	Inside
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jason Myers	K	SEA	8	4	13	6	-2	Inside
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8	4	13	4	-4	Inside
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	8	4	13	8	0	Inside
Matt Gay	K	LV	8	4	13	7	-1	Inside
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	8	4	13	10	2	Inside
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jake Bates	K	DET	8	4	13	15	7	Above
Cam Little	K	JAX	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	8	4	13	16	8	Above
Andy Borregales	K	NE	8	4	12	3	-5	Below
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	8	4	14	11	3	Inside
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	8	3	13	10	2	Inside
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	7.9	3.4	15.3	7.3	-0.6	Inside
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	7.9	3.5	14.4	13.8	5.9	Inside
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	7.8	3.3	14.8	9.8	2	Inside
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	7.6	3.3	13.8	8.2	0.6	Inside
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	7.6	3.4	14.2	7.4	-0.2	Inside
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	7.5	3.3	13.4	6.4	-1.1	Inside
Garrett Wilson	WR	—	7.5	3.4	14.5	0	-7.5	Below
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	7.4	2.9	14.4	6.6	-0.8	Inside
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	7.2	3	13.4	7.9	0.7	Inside
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	7.2	3.1	14	13.5	6.3	Inside
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	7.2	3.1	13.4	1.4	-5.8	Below
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	7.1	3	14.3	13.1	6	Inside
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	7	3.1	12.9	6	-1	Inside
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	7	3.1	13.3	5.2	-1.8	Inside
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	7	3.2	13	6.4	-0.6	Inside
Nick Folk	K	ATL	7	3	12	4	-3	Inside
Brandon McManus	K	LA	7	4	12	8	1	Inside
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Zane Gonzalez	K	MIA	7	4	13	10	3	Inside
Daniel Carlson	K	—	7	3	12	0	-7	Below
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	7	4	12	15	8	Above
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	7	3	11	13	6	Above
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	7	3	12	13	6	Above
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	7	3	12	3	-4	Inside
Will Reichard	K	MIN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	7	3	12	12	5	Inside
Kenny Gainwell	RB	TB	6.8	3.4	12.5	9.1	2.3	Inside
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	6.8	2.9	12.4	2.7	-4.1	Below
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	6.8	2.8	13.7	12.7	5.9	Inside
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6.8	3	13.1	5.3	-1.5	Inside
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	6.7	3.2	12.9	4.6	-2.1	Inside
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	6.7	2.8	13.6	10	3.3	Inside
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	6.5	2.7	13.1	6.3	-0.2	Inside
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	6.5	2.6	13.1	7.5	1	Inside
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	6.5	2	12.8	2.1	-4.4	Inside
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	6.5	2.9	12.6	15.3	8.8	Above
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	6.4	2.7	12.9	4.6	-1.8	Inside
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	6.4	3	12.4	3.1	-3.3	Inside
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	6.4	2.7	12.8	2.7	-3.7	Inside
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	6.3	2.7	12.8	0	-6.3	Below
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	6.2	2.9	12.4	14	7.8	Above
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	6.2	2.8	11.9	7.5	1.3	Inside
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	6	2.7	12	7.8	1.8	Inside
Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	6	2.7	12	9.1	3.1	Inside
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	6	2.6	11.6	4.3	-1.7	Inside
Chicago Bears D/ST	DST	CHI	6	2	11	14	8	Above
Denver Broncos D/ST	DST	DEN	6	2	11	7	1	Inside
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	6	2	11	9	3	Inside
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	2	11	6	0	Inside
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	6	2	11	-1	-7	Below
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	3	12	7	1	Inside
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	2	11	15	9	Above
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	5.9	2.6	11.6	5.2	-0.7	Inside
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	5.9	2	12	3.8	-2.1	Inside
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	5.9	2.6	11.5	5	-0.9	Inside
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	5.8	2.9	11.3	-0.3	-6.1	Below
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	5.8	2.7	11.2	3.2	-2.6	Inside
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	5.8	2.7	11	2.4	-3.4	Below
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.5	2.6	10.7	3.2	-2.3	Inside
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	5.3	2.5	10.3	5.2	-0.1	Inside
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	5	1.9	10.7	1.6	-3.4	Below
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	5	2	10	15	10	Above
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	5	1	9	3	-2	Inside
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	5	2	10	3	-2	Inside
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	5	2	10	7	2	Inside
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	5	2	10	11	6	Above
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	5	1	10	-1	-6	Below
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	5	2	10	17	12	Above
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST	DST	TB	5	1	10	11	6	Above
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	4.3	1.6	9.7	1.8	-2.5	Inside
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	4.1	1.6	9.5	10.4	6.3	Above
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	4	1.5	8.8	8.7	4.7	Inside
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	4	0	8	1	-3	Inside
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	4	1	9	1	-3	Inside

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, Half-PPR scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (113) of (168) (67.3%); mean miss 5.0 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.

Questions

Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?: Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.
Who is the top running back for Week 10?: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.
Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?: Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.
Who is the top tight end for Week 10?: Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.
Who is the top kicker for Week 10?: Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
Who is the top defense for Week 10?: Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.
What do the floor and ceiling mean?: They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
Which teams are on bye in Week 10?: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
What is points over replacement?: A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.