Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?

Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.

Who is the top running back for Week 10?

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.

Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?

Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.

Who is the top tight end for Week 10?

Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.

Who is the top kicker for Week 10?

Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.

Who is the top defense for Week 10?

Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.

What do the floor and ceiling mean?

They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.

What is points over replacement?

A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.

Week 10 Flex rankings

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season · byes: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB

Joe Burrow is Kelly's top Week 10 quarterback at 22.2 projected Half-PPR points (range 8.5 to 35.3). 358 players are ranked at running back, receiver and tight end; CHI, DEN, PHI, TB are on bye.

Week 10 rankings, Half-PPR (358)

Showing (200) of (358) · Now · Sorted by Proj, high to low · Compared with running backs, receivers and tight ends together (358 players)

Player	Pos	Team	Flex rank	Pos rank	Proj	Floor	Ceiling	Over repl.	Opp
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	1	1	16.8	6.7	31.7	7.9	vs NE
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	2	1	16	5.8	34.2	10.2	at ARI
James Cook	RB	BUF	3	2	15.8	6.2	30.5	6.9	at NYJ
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	4	3	15.4	6.1	29.3	6.5	at ATL
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	5	4	15	5.3	29.9	6.1	at DAL
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	6	5	14.1	5.9	26.8	5.2	at CIN
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	7	2	14	4.7	30.4	8.2	vs SF
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	7	6	14	5.9	26.7	5.1	vs KC
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	9	3	13.8	4.5	30.7	8	at LV
Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	10	7	13.7	5.1	27.2	4.8	vs JAX
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	11	8	13.6	5.4	26.4	4.7	at NO
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	12	9	13.3	4.9	26.1	4.4	vs SF
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	13	4	12.7	4.1	27.9	6.9	vs PIT
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	14	5	12.1	3.7	26.5	6.3	vs PIT
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	15	10	11.6	4.3	23.1	2.7	at ARI
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	16	11	11.4	4.1	23	2.5	vs MIA
Christian Watson	WR	GB	17	6	11.1	3.4	25.9	5.3	vs MIN
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	17	12	11.1	3.3	23.7	2.2	at TEN
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	19	7	11	3.8	24.6	5.2	vs WAS
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	19	7	11	3.5	25.5	5.2	vs MIN
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	21	9	10.7	3.7	23.9	4.9	vs NE
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	22	1	10.5	2.9	24.3	4.9	vs SEA
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	22	13	10.5	4.1	21.6	1.6	vs BUF
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	24	14	10.1	3.6	20.9	1.2	vs LAC
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	24	14	10.1	3.2	21.7	1.2	at LV
Chris Olave	WR	NO	26	10	9.8	3.2	22.3	4	vs CAR
Audric Estime	RB	NO	27	16	9.7	2.7	21.3	0.8	vs CAR
Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	28	17	9.6	3.4	20.6	0.7	vs BUF
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	28	17	9.6	3.6	20.1	0.7	at IND
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	30	19	9.4	3.5	19.7	0.5	vs PIT
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	30	11	9.4	2.9	22	3.6	vs BUF
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	32	20	9.3	3.1	20.1	0.4	at DET
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	32	2	9.3	2.9	21.1	3.7	vs LA
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	34	21	9.2	3	20.3	0.3	vs LA
Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	35	22	9.1	0.9	20	0.2	at LV
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	35	12	9.1	2.9	21.2	3.3	at NO
George Kittle	TE	SF	37	3	9	2.5	21.2	3.4	at DAL
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	37	13	9	2.8	20.6	3.2	vs LAC
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	39	4	8.9	2.3	20.5	3.3	vs WAS
Blake Corum	RB	LA	39	23	8.9	2.4	20.3	0	at ARI
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	39	23	8.9	2.6	19.8	0	vs HOU
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	42	14	8.6	1.9	21.1	2.8	vs NE
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	43	25	8.3	2.5	19.3	-0.6	vs SEA
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	44	26	8.2	2.7	18.7	-0.7	at CLE
Cam Skattebo	RB	NYG	44	26	8.2	0	19.6	-0.7	vs WAS
Drake London	WR	ATL	46	15	8.1	2.7	19.2	2.3	vs KC
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	47	16	7.9	2.1	20.3	2.1	vs LA
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	47	16	7.9	1.8	20.3	2.1	at TEN
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	49	18	7.8	2.1	19.9	2	at ATL
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	50	28	7.7	1.7	18.5	-1.2	vs MIN
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	51	19	7.6	1.7	19.6	1.8	at CLE
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	52	20	7.5	1.9	19.4	1.7	at GB
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	52	20	7.5	1.7	19.6	1.7	at DET
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	54	29	7.3	2.2	17.2	-1.6	at GB
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	54	29	7.3	1.8	18	-1.6	at NYG
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	56	22	7.1	1.6	18.3	1.3	at NYG
Rico Dowdle	RB	PIT	56	31	7.1	1.7	17.2	-1.8	at CIN
Tank Dell	WR	HOU	56	22	7.1	1.6	19.6	1.3	at CLE
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	59	32	7	1.7	16.9	-1.9	vs CAR
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	59	24	7	1.6	18.3	1.2	at IND
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	61	33	6.9	1.1	17.6	-2	at TEN
KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	61	25	6.9	1.8	18	1.1	vs HOU
Justice Hill	RB	BAL	63	34	6.8	1.7	16.7	-2.1	vs LAC
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	63	5	6.8	1.7	17.2	1.2	vs HOU
Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	65	26	6.7	0.7	18.1	0.9	vs JAX
Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	66	27	6.6	1.6	17.5	0.8	vs HOU
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	67	6	6.5	1.8	16	0.9	at GB
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	67	6	6.5	2	16.4	0.9	vs MIA
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	69	8	6.4	1.7	16.5	0.8	at ATL
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	70	28	6.3	1.6	16.2	0.5	vs MIA
Devin Singletary	RB	NYG	70	35	6.3	1.2	16.3	-2.6	vs WAS
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	TEN	70	28	6.3	1.1	17.7	0.5	vs JAX
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	70	28	6.3	1.4	17.2	0.5	vs SEA
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	70	35	6.3	1.9	15.3	-2.6	at BAL
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	75	31	6.2	1.6	16.6	0.4	at TEN
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	75	31	6.2	1.5	16.6	0.4	at NYJ
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	77	37	6.1	1.8	15.6	-2.8	at GB
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	77	33	6.1	1.5	16.7	0.3	vs SF
Darren Waller	TE	CAR	79	9	6	1.4	16.3	0.4	at NO
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	79	9	6	1.6	15.8	0.4	vs NE
Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	79	34	6	1.5	16	0.2	at CIN
DJ Moore	WR	BUF	82	35	5.9	1.4	16.2	0.1	at NYJ
Jadarian Price	RB	SEA	82	38	5.9	1.3	15.3	-3	at LV
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	84	11	5.8	1.6	15.2	0.2	at DET
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	84	36	5.8	1.4	16.3	0	at DET
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	84	36	5.8	1.4	15.9	0	at CIN
Emmett Johnson	RB	KC	87	39	5.7	1.1	15.3	-3.2	at ATL
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	88	12	5.6	1.3	15.3	0	at CIN
Kayshon Boutte	WR	HOU	88	38	5.6	1.1	16.1	-0.2	at CLE
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	88	12	5.6	1.5	15.1	0	at NYJ
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	88	38	5.6	1.3	15.3	-0.2	at NO
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	88	38	5.6	1.2	15.7	-0.2	at DAL
Kaelon Black	RB	SF	93	40	5.5	1.5	14.4	-3.4	at DAL
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	94	14	5.4	1	15.6	-0.2	vs KC
Jordan Addison	WR	MIN	94	41	5.4	1.2	14.7	-0.4	at GB
Dylan Sampson	RB	CLE	94	41	5.4	1.4	13.9	-3.5	vs HOU
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	97	15	5.3	1.5	14.2	-0.3	at TEN
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	97	15	5.3	1	15.4	-0.3	vs MIN
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	97	42	5.3	1.2	15.2	-0.5	vs BUF
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	100	17	5.2	1.5	13.8	-0.4	at NYG
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	100	43	5.2	0.7	15.8	-0.6	vs CAR
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	102	42	5.1	1	14.5	-3.8	at BAL
George Pickens	WR	DAL	103	44	5	0	17.3	-0.8	vs SF
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	103	44	5	1.1	15	-0.8	at BAL
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	103	44	5	1	15.1	-0.8	at IND
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	106	18	4.9	1.3	13.3	-0.7	vs SEA
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	107	19	4.7	0.8	14.3	-0.9	at CIN
Keaton Mitchell	RB	LAC	107	43	4.7	1	12.7	-4.2	at BAL
Xavier Worthy	WR	KC	107	47	4.7	0.9	14	-1.1	at ATL
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	107	47	4.7	0.5	14.2	-1.1	at BAL
Jahan Dotson	WR	ATL	111	49	4.6	0.9	13.7	-1.2	vs KC
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	111	49	4.6	0.5	14.5	-1.2	at CLE
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	111	49	4.6	0.5	15.2	-1.2	at NYJ
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	114	20	4.5	0.6	13.9	-1.1	vs CAR
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	114	20	4.5	1	13.6	-1.1	at IND
Seth McGowan	RB	IND	114	44	4.5	0.8	13.7	-4.4	vs MIA
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	117	22	4.4	0.6	14.1	-1.2	vs PIT
Josh Downs	WR	IND	117	52	4.4	0.5	13.9	-1.4	vs MIA
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	117	52	4.4	0.5	13.5	-1.4	at NYG
Malachi Fields	WR	NYG	117	52	4.4	0.5	14.6	-1.4	vs WAS
Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	121	45	4.3	0.7	13.5	-4.6	vs PIT
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	122	23	4.2	0.8	13	-1.4	at CLE
Michael Carter	RB	TEN	122	46	4.2	0	12.1	-4.7	vs JAX
Corey Kiner	RB	NE	122	46	4.2	0.6	13.7	-4.7	at DET
Efton Chism III	WR	NE	122	55	4.2	0.5	13.8	-1.6	at DET
Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	126	56	4.1	0.5	13.4	-1.7	at DAL
Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	126	48	4.1	0.5	11.7	-4.8	at NYJ
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	126	48	4.1	0.8	13.1	-4.8	vs SEA
Pierre Strong	RB	GB	129	50	4	0.5	12.3	-4.9	vs MIN
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	129	24	4	0.7	13	-1.6	at LV
Kaleb Johnson	RB	GB	129	50	4	0.6	13.3	-4.9	vs MIN
Jordyn Tyson	WR	NO	129	57	4	0.5	12.5	-1.8	vs CAR
Eli Raridon	TE	NE	129	24	4	0.6	12.8	-1.6	at DET
Van Jefferson	WR	WAS	134	58	3.9	0.5	13.4	-1.9	at NYG
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	134	26	3.9	0.6	13.1	-1.7	at NO
Tyler Goodson	RB	DAL	134	52	3.9	0.7	11.9	-5	vs SF
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	134	58	3.9	0	13.9	-1.9	at NYG
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	134	58	3.9	0.5	12.5	-1.9	at BAL
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	134	26	3.9	0.6	12.4	-1.7	vs BUF
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	140	53	3.7	0.7	11.3	-5.2	at NYG
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	141	61	3.6	0.5	12.4	-2.2	at LV
Gunnar Helm	TE	TEN	141	28	3.6	0.6	11.3	-2	vs JAX
Dohnte Meyers	WR	CIN	143	62	3.5	0.5	11.4	-2.3	vs PIT
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	144	29	3.4	0.5	11.3	-2.2	at ARI
Oronde Gadsden II	TE	LAC	144	29	3.4	0.5	11.1	-2.2	at BAL
Nate Boerkircher	TE	JAX	144	29	3.4	0.4	12.1	-2.2	at TEN
Colby Parkinson	TE	LA	147	32	3.3	0.5	11.7	-2.3	at ARI
Jerry Jeudy	WR	CLE	147	63	3.3	0.5	10.9	-2.5	vs HOU
Elic Ayomanor	WR	TEN	147	63	3.3	0.4	11.3	-2.5	vs JAX
Chimere Dike	WR	TEN	147	63	3.3	0.4	12.3	-2.5	vs JAX
Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	151	33	3.2	0.5	11	-2.4	vs LAC
John Metchie III	WR	CAR	152	66	3.1	0.5	10.9	-2.7	at NO
Sione Vaki	RB	DET	152	54	3.1	0.6	10.1	-5.8	vs NE
Savion Williams	WR	GB	152	66	3.1	0.3	11.7	-2.7	vs MIN
Jake Ferguson	TE	DAL	155	34	3	0.2	11.5	-2.6	vs SF
Charlie Kolar	TE	LAC	155	34	3	0.5	10.2	-2.6	at BAL
Tyjae Spears	RB	TEN	155	55	3	0	10.5	-5.9	vs JAX
Theo Wease Jr.	WR	LAC	155	68	3	0	11.8	-2.8	at BAL
Isaac TeSlaa	WR	DET	155	68	3	0.2	10.7	-2.8	vs NE
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	160	70	2.9	0.2	10.3	-2.9	vs LAC
Noah Gray	TE	KC	160	36	2.9	0.2	10.9	-2.7	at ATL
Kenyon Sadiq	TE	NYJ	160	36	2.9	0.4	10	-2.7	vs BUF
Gregory Desrosiers	RB	NYG	160	56	2.9	0.5	10.2	-6	vs WAS
Emari Demercado	RB	HOU	164	57	2.8	0.2	10.1	-6.1	at CLE
Elijah Higgins	TE	ARI	165	38	2.7	0.3	9.9	-2.9	vs LA
Brevyn Spann-Ford	TE	DAL	165	38	2.7	0.2	9.7	-2.9	vs SF
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HOU	165	71	2.7	0	11.4	-3.1	at CLE
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	165	71	2.7	0	11.1	-3.1	at LV
Darnell Mooney	WR	NYG	169	73	2.6	0	10.3	-3.2	vs WAS
Khalil Herbert	RB	ATL	169	58	2.6	0.3	9.4	-6.3	vs KC
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	LAC	169	73	2.6	0.1	10	-3.2	at BAL
Jalen Nailor	WR	LV	172	75	2.5	0	10.6	-3.3	vs SEA
Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	CLE	172	59	2.5	0	10.4	-6.4	vs HOU
George Holani	RB	SEA	172	59	2.5	0.1	9.8	-6.4	at LV
DJ Giddens	RB	IND	172	59	2.5	0	9.7	-6.4	vs MIA
Brandin Cooks	WR	SF	176	76	2.4	0	10.6	-3.4	at DAL
Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	176	40	2.4	0.1	9.6	-3.2	at NYJ
Mitchell Evans	TE	CAR	176	40	2.4	0	9	-3.2	at NO
Josh Cuevas	TE	BAL	176	40	2.4	0	9.9	-3.2	vs LAC
Kaytron Allen	RB	MIA	176	62	2.4	0.1	9.4	-6.5	at IND
Barion Brown	WR	NO	176	76	2.4	0	9.4	-3.4	vs CAR
Chris Bell	WR	MIA	176	76	2.4	0	9.5	-3.4	at IND
Kevin Coleman Jr.	WR	MIA	176	76	2.4	0	10.8	-3.4	at IND
Tutu Atwell	WR	LA	184	80	2.3	0	10.2	-3.5	at ARI
Davis Allen	TE	LA	184	43	2.3	0	10.1	-3.3	at ARI
Isaiah Davis	RB	NYJ	184	63	2.3	0.1	8.9	-6.6	vs BUF
Gavin Bartholomew	TE	MIN	184	43	2.3	0	9.4	-3.3	at GB
Foster Moreau	TE	HOU	188	45	2.2	0	11	-3.4	at CLE
Laquon Treadwell	WR	IND	189	81	2.1	0	9.3	-3.7	vs MIA
Ashton Dulin	WR	IND	189	81	2.1	0	10.4	-3.7	vs MIA
Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	CAR	189	46	2.1	0	9.1	-3.5	at NO
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	189	81	2.1	0	10.3	-3.7	at DET
Konata Mumpfield	WR	LA	189	81	2.1	0	9.7	-3.7	at ARI
Jack Bech	WR	LV	189	81	2.1	0	9.6	-3.7	vs SEA
Ja'Kobi Lane	WR	BAL	189	81	2.1	0	9.3	-3.7	vs LAC
Reggie Virgil	WR	ARI	189	81	2.1	0	9.3	-3.7	vs LA
Noah Fant	TE	NO	197	47	2	0	9.2	-3.6	vs CAR
Jeremy Ruckert	TE	NYJ	197	47	2	0	8.9	-3.6	vs BUF
Ray Davis	RB	BUF	197	64	2	0	8.5	-6.9	at NYJ
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR	JAX	197	88	2	0	10.2	-3.8	at TEN
Starter average	—	—	—	—	9.3	2.9	21.2	2.5	—

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by Kelly; Kelly's consensus of the books it tracks; Forecast: National Weather Service; NFL injury reports via nflverseWeek 10, Half-PPR scoring; projection ens-fit-2026w10-mkt-2026-w10-2026-11-13+mkt-closing-2026-w10.Starters are a 12-team league's (RB1–RB24, WR1–WR36, TE1–TE12); replacement is the last of them.Per-game figures from fewer than 4 games are marked as small samples.On bye, so not ranked: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.

How Kelly's Week 9 projections did (168)

Every projection Kelly stored before Week 9 kicked off, against what each player scored. Inside the range (113) of (168), 67.3%; mean miss 5.0 points. The stored range is the 20th to 80th percentile, so a calibrated one holds about 60%.

Showing (168) of (168) · Now · Sorted by Projected, high to low · Compared with last week's checked players (168)

Player	Pos	Team	Projected	Low	High	Scored	Miss	In range
Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	22.3	14	31.2	29.5	7.2	Inside
Drake Maye	QB	NE	19.8	12.1	27.7	18.3	-1.5	Inside
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	19.7	12	28	12.9	-6.8	Inside
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	19.3	11.8	29.2	13.4	-5.9	Inside
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	18.5	11.4	26.2	25.3	6.8	Inside
Jared Goff	QB	DET	17.6	10.7	24.9	5.3	-12.3	Below
Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	17.2	10.3	24.4	12.6	-4.6	Inside
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	17.1	10.4	24.4	19.5	2.4	Inside
Jayden Daniels	QB	WAS	16.8	10.2	23.5	14.6	-2.2	Inside
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.7	9.7	23.9	36.2	19.5	Above
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	16.7	9.7	23.8	13.6	-3.1	Inside
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	16.6	10.1	23.4	12.8	-3.8	Inside
Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	16.1	9.7	23.1	16.5	0.4	Inside
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	16.1	9.5	23	35.4	19.3	Above
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	15.9	8.7	24.9	21.7	5.8	Inside
Matthew Stafford	QB	LA	15.8	9.3	22.9	11.2	-4.6	Inside
Tyler Shough	QB	NO	15.7	9	22.9	19.7	4	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	15.6	8.1	26.3	8.6	-7	Inside
Malik Willis	QB	MIA	15.5	8.8	22.4	3.8	-11.7	Below
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	15.2	8.9	21.9	15.7	0.5	Inside
Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	15.1	8.8	23.8	34.3	19.2	Above
James Cook	RB	BUF	14.8	8.2	23.6	16.7	1.9	Inside
Sam Darnold	QB	—	14.7	8.5	21.4	0	-14.7	Below
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	8.1	20.9	20.3	6	Inside
Kyler Murray	QB	—	13.9	8.1	20.1	0	-13.9	Below
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	13.9	7.5	22.3	3.1	-10.8	Below
Puka Nacua	WR	LA	13.9	7.4	23.3	28	14.1	Above
Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	13.7	7.7	20.1	7.4	-6.3	Below
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13.7	7.7	21.6	11.6	-2.1	Inside
Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	13.6	7.8	21.4	23.7	10.1	Above
Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	13.4	7.3	19.7	13.5	0.1	Inside
Deshaun Watson	QB	—	13.3	8.1	19.3	0	-13.3	Below
Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	13.3	7.1	21.2	20.4	7.1	Inside
Kyren Williams	RB	LA	13	7.2	20.6	7.6	-5.4	Inside
Bucky Irving	RB	TB	12.8	6.9	20.2	26.5	13.7	Above
Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	12.8	6.5	22	17.7	4.9	Inside
Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	12.3	6.6	20	6.9	-5.4	Inside
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	12.2	6.8	18	10.4	-1.8	Inside
Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	12.2	6.8	19.6	4.4	-7.8	Below
Malik Nabers	WR	NYG	11.8	6.3	20.5	6.8	-5	Inside
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	11.8	5.9	20	26.5	14.7	Above
CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	11.6	5.7	19.9	28.5	16.9	Above
Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	10.9	5.4	17.7	5.6	-5.3	Inside
George Kittle	TE	SF	10.9	5.1	19.4	7.8	-3.1	Inside
Brock Bowers	TE	LV	10.9	5.2	19.2	18.8	7.9	Inside
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	10.8	5.6	18.7	12.6	1.8	Inside
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	10.7	3.6	18.5	8.9	-1.8	Inside
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	10.7	5.2	17.9	0.5	-10.2	Below
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10.3	5.4	17.2	13.3	3	Inside
Chase Brown	RB	CIN	10.2	5.6	16.9	9	-1.2	Inside
Cam Skattebo	RB	—	10.1	5.5	16.7	0	-10.1	Below
Christian Watson	WR	GB	10.1	4.8	18	26.6	16.5	Above
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	9.9	4.4	17	9.1	-0.8	Inside
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	9.9	4.7	17.5	27.4	17.5	Above
Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	9.8	4.7	16.7	5	-4.8	Inside
Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	9.8	4.6	17	4.5	-5.3	Below
Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	9.8	4.9	17.5	17.2	7.4	Inside
Trey McBride	TE	ARI	9.7	4.6	17	8.9	-0.8	Inside
Jameson Williams	WR	DET	9.6	4.3	17.2	4.5	-5.1	Inside
Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	9.6	4.8	16.8	3.8	-5.8	Below
Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	9.5	4.8	16	6.9	-2.6	Inside
Chris Olave	WR	NO	9.3	4.6	16.9	13.3	4	Inside
Jonah Coleman	RB	DEN	9.2	4.5	15.7	16.8	7.6	Above
Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	9	4.4	15.5	5.6	-3.4	Inside
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	9	4.6	16.1	13.6	4.6	Inside
Blake Corum	RB	LA	8.9	3.8	15.4	11.8	2.9	Inside
Drake London	WR	ATL	8.8	4.5	15.8	9.3	0.5	Inside
Emanuel Wilson	RB	—	8.7	3.7	15.5	0	-8.7	Below
Aaron Jones	RB	MIN	8.6	4.3	14.8	2.6	-6	Below
George Pickens	WR	—	8.5	4.1	15.5	0	-8.5	Below
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	8.4	4.2	14.7	7.9	-0.5	Inside
Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	8.4	3.9	16	9	0.6	Inside
Rashee Rice	WR	KC	8.4	3.7	15.7	7.4	-1	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	CLE	8.1	3.7	15.1	11.2	3.1	Inside
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jason Myers	K	SEA	8	4	13	6	-2	Inside
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	HOU	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Harrison Butker	K	KC	8	4	13	4	-4	Inside
Eddy Pineiro	K	SF	8	4	13	8	0	Inside
Matt Gay	K	LV	8	4	13	7	-1	Inside
Chase McLaughlin	K	TB	8	4	13	10	2	Inside
Tyler Bass	K	BUF	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Evan McPherson	K	CIN	8	4	13	13	5	Inside
Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	8	4	13	9	1	Inside
Jake Bates	K	DET	8	4	13	15	7	Above
Cam Little	K	JAX	8	4	13	17	9	Above
Spencer Shrader	K	IND	8	4	13	16	8	Above
Andy Borregales	K	NE	8	4	12	3	-5	Below
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST	DST	JAX	8	4	14	11	3	Inside
Seattle Seahawks D/ST	DST	SEA	8	3	13	10	2	Inside
Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	7.9	3.4	15.3	7.3	-0.6	Inside
Isaiah Likely	TE	NYG	7.9	3.5	14.4	13.8	5.9	Inside
Omar Cooper Jr.	WR	NYJ	7.8	3.3	14.8	9.8	2	Inside
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	7.6	3.3	13.8	8.2	0.6	Inside
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	7.6	3.4	14.2	7.4	-0.2	Inside
Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	7.5	3.3	13.4	6.4	-1.1	Inside
Garrett Wilson	WR	—	7.5	3.4	14.5	0	-7.5	Below
Stefon Diggs	WR	WAS	7.4	2.9	14.4	6.6	-0.8	Inside
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	7.2	3	13.4	7.9	0.7	Inside
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	7.2	3.1	14	13.5	6.3	Inside
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	7.2	3.1	13.4	1.4	-5.8	Below
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	7.1	3	14.3	13.1	6	Inside
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	7	3.1	12.9	6	-1	Inside
Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	7	3.1	13.3	5.2	-1.8	Inside
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	7	3.2	13	6.4	-0.6	Inside
Nick Folk	K	ATL	7	3	12	4	-3	Inside
Brandon McManus	K	LA	7	4	12	8	1	Inside
Wil Lutz	K	DEN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Zane Gonzalez	K	MIA	7	4	13	10	3	Inside
Daniel Carlson	K	—	7	3	12	0	-7	Below
Jason Sanders	K	NYJ	7	4	12	15	8	Above
Cameron Dicker	K	LAC	7	3	11	13	6	Above
Andre Szmyt	K	CLE	7	3	12	13	6	Above
Chad Ryland	K	ARI	7	3	12	3	-4	Inside
Will Reichard	K	MIN	7	3	12	9	2	Inside
Houston Texans D/ST	DST	HOU	7	3	12	12	5	Inside
Kenny Gainwell	RB	TB	6.8	3.4	12.5	9.1	2.3	Inside
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	6.8	2.9	12.4	2.7	-4.1	Below
DeMario Douglas	WR	NE	6.8	2.8	13.7	12.7	5.9	Inside
T.J. Hockenson	TE	MIN	6.8	3	13.1	5.3	-1.5	Inside
Keenan Allen	WR	IND	6.7	3.2	12.9	4.6	-2.1	Inside
Caleb Douglas	WR	MIA	6.7	2.8	13.6	10	3.3	Inside
Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	6.5	2.7	13.1	6.3	-0.2	Inside
Tre Tucker	WR	LV	6.5	2.6	13.1	7.5	1	Inside
Mike Gesicki	TE	CIN	6.5	2	12.8	2.1	-4.4	Inside
Travis Kelce	TE	KC	6.5	2.9	12.6	15.3	8.8	Above
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	6.4	2.7	12.9	4.6	-1.8	Inside
Malik Washington	WR	MIA	6.4	3	12.4	3.1	-3.3	Inside
Devaughn Vele	WR	NO	6.4	2.7	12.8	2.7	-3.7	Inside
Adonai Mitchell	WR	NYJ	6.3	2.7	12.8	0	-6.3	Below
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	6.2	2.9	12.4	14	7.8	Above
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	6.2	2.8	11.9	7.5	1.3	Inside
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	6	2.7	12	7.8	1.8	Inside
Makai Lemon	WR	PHI	6	2.7	12	9.1	3.1	Inside
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	6	2.6	11.6	4.3	-1.7	Inside
Chicago Bears D/ST	DST	CHI	6	2	11	14	8	Above
Denver Broncos D/ST	DST	DEN	6	2	11	7	1	Inside
Detroit Lions D/ST	DST	DET	6	2	11	9	3	Inside
Minnesota Vikings D/ST	DST	MIN	6	2	11	6	0	Inside
New England Patriots D/ST	DST	NE	6	2	11	-1	-7	Below
New Orleans Saints D/ST	DST	NO	6	3	12	7	1	Inside
New York Giants D/ST	DST	NYG	6	2	11	15	9	Above
Jordan Mason	RB	MIN	5.9	2.6	11.6	5.2	-0.7	Inside
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	5.9	2	12	3.8	-2.1	Inside
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	5.9	2.6	11.5	5	-0.9	Inside
Mike Washington Jr.	RB	LV	5.8	2.9	11.3	-0.3	-6.1	Below
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	5.8	2.7	11.2	3.2	-2.6	Inside
Greg Dulcich	TE	MIA	5.8	2.7	11	2.4	-3.4	Below
Michael Mayer	TE	LV	5.5	2.6	10.7	3.2	-2.3	Inside
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	5.3	2.5	10.3	5.2	-0.1	Inside
Mason Taylor	TE	NYJ	5	1.9	10.7	1.6	-3.4	Below
Buffalo Bills D/ST	DST	BUF	5	2	10	15	10	Above
Carolina Panthers D/ST	DST	CAR	5	1	9	3	-2	Inside
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST	DST	CIN	5	2	10	3	-2	Inside
Cleveland Browns D/ST	DST	CLE	5	2	10	7	2	Inside
Dallas Cowboys D/ST	DST	DAL	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Green Bay Packers D/ST	DST	GB	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST	DST	KC	5	2	10	11	6	Above
Los Angeles Rams D/ST	DST	LA	5	2	10	12	7	Above
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST	DST	LAC	5	1	10	-1	-6	Below
San Francisco 49ers D/ST	DST	SF	5	2	10	17	12	Above
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST	DST	TB	5	1	10	11	6	Above
Washington Commanders D/ST	DST	WAS	5	1	9	6	1	Inside
Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	4.3	1.6	9.7	1.8	-2.5	Inside
Juwan Johnson	TE	NO	4.1	1.6	9.5	10.4	6.3	Above
Chig Okonkwo	TE	WAS	4	1.5	8.8	8.7	4.7	Inside
Arizona Cardinals D/ST	DST	ARI	4	0	8	1	-3	Inside
Atlanta Falcons D/ST	DST	ATL	4	1	9	1	-3	Inside

Data as of 2026-11-13 13:36 UTCSource: Kelly's projections: the engine's simulated games scored in each public format; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0), scored by KellyWeek 9 board, Half-PPR scoring, published before kickoff; each position's top 36 (24 at QB, TE, K and DST), as Kelly's accuracy job scores it.Inside the range (113) of (168) (67.3%); mean miss 5.0 points. A well-calibrated 20th-to-80th range holds about 60% of results.

Questions

Who is the top quarterback for Week 10?: Joe Burrow (CIN), projected 22.2 Half-PPR points with a range of 8.5 to 35.3.
Who is the top running back for Week 10?: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), projected 16.8 Half-PPR points with a range of 6.7 to 31.7.
Who is the top wide receiver for Week 10?: Puka Nacua (LA), projected 16.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 5.8 to 34.2.
Who is the top tight end for Week 10?: Brock Bowers (LV), projected 10.5 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.9 to 24.3.
Who is the top kicker for Week 10?: Tyler Bass (BUF), projected 9.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 3.0 to 17.0.
Who is the top defense for Week 10?: Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB), projected 8.0 Half-PPR points with a range of 2.0 to 17.0.
What do the floor and ceiling mean?: They are the 10th and 90th percentiles of Kelly's 10,000 simulated games for each player: he scores below his floor in 1 game in 10 and above his ceiling in 1 game in 10. The projection is the median.
Which teams are on bye in Week 10?: CHI, DEN, PHI, TB.
What is points over replacement?: A player's points minus the replacement player's at his position: the last starter in a 12-team league (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, K12, DST12). It puts every position on one scale for flex and trade decisions.