NFL player prop history by player
Pass + rush yards props in the 2026 season: overs hit 52.4% of decided games against each game's own closing line (22-20-0 over-under-push, 29 players).
Pass + rush yards by player (29)
Each player-game is graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart. Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples. A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.
Showing (29) of (29) · Totals · Sorted by Graded, high to low · Compared with every player with 10+ decided games (0)
| Player | Pos | Team | Graded | O-U-P | Over % | Avg vs close | Avg close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -33.17 | 256.5 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 26.5 | 263.17 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 65.5 | 200 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -65 | 201 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 87 | 239.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 64 | 226 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 112.5 | 275.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 3 | 233 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | -52 | 226 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -21.5 | 252 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 58.5 | 242 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -16.5 | 234.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -170.5 | 235.5 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 8.5 | 230.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 28.5 | 264.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 146.5 | 257.5 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -146.5 | 227.5 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -67.5 | 282.5 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 65.5 | 281.5 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -35.5 | 205.5 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 54.5 | 232.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | BAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -143.5 | 269.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 35.5 | 241.5 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 17.5 | 270.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -18.5 | 267.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -268.5 | 268.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -22.5 | 234.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -11.5 | 261.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 83.5 | 226.5 |
| All players, Pass + rush yards | — | — | 42 | 22-20-0 | 52.4% | 0.55 | 243.83 |
Data as of 2026-11-13 01:15 UTCSource: Kelly's consensus closing line: each book's last price before the start, margin removed, then averaged; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0)Seasons 2026, regular season; each player-game graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart.Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples and left out of the ranks.A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.