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Kelly

NFL player prop history by player

Touchdowns props in the 2026 season: overs hit 1.4% of decided games against each game's own closing line (13-933-0 over-under-push, 422 players).

Touchdowns by player (422)

Each player-game is graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart. Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples. A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.

Showing (200) of (422) · Totals · Sorted by Graded, high to low · Compared with every player with 10+ decided games (0)

PlayerPosTeamGradedO-U-POver %Avg vs closeAvg close
AJ BarnerTESEA31-2-033.3%-1.171.83
Aaron JonesRBMIN30-3-00%-1.831.83
Adam PrenticeRBDEN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Adam TrautmanTEDEN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Adonai MitchellWRNYJ30-3-00%-1.51.83
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET30-3-00%-2.172.17
Andrew ArmstrongWRKC30-3-00%-1.51.5
Anthony Tyus IIIRBCAR30-3-00%-1.171.5
Antonio WilliamsWRWAS30-3-00%-1.51.83
Ashton DulinWRIND30-3-00%-1.171.5
Ashton JeantyRBLV30-3-00%-1.832.17
Austin EkelerRBWAS30-3-00%-1.831.83
Baker MayfieldQBTB30-3-00%-1.831.83
Bijan RobinsonRBATL30-3-00%-2.172.5
Blake CorumRBLA30-3-00%-0.831.83
Bo MeltonWRGB30-3-00%-1.51.5
Bo NixQBDEN30-3-00%-1.171.5
Braelon AllenRBNYJ30-3-00%-2.172.5
Brevyn Spann-FordTEDAL30-3-00%-2.172.17
Brock BowersTELV31-2-033.3%-0.831.83
Bryce YoungQBCAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
Brycen TremayneWRCAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
Bucky IrvingRBTB31-2-033.3%-0.171.83
Caleb DouglasWRMIA31-2-033.3%-1.171.83
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI30-3-00%-1.51.5
CeeDee LambWRDAL30-3-00%-1.52.5
Charlie JonesWRNYG30-3-00%-1.51.5
Charlie WoernerTEATL30-3-00%-1.171.5
Chase BrownRBCIN30-3-00%-2.52.5
Chig OkonkwoTEWAS30-3-00%-1.831.83
Chris BellWRMIA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Chris Godwin Jr.WRTB30-3-00%-1.831.83
Christian WatsonWRGB30-3-00%-2.172.5
Chuba HubbardRBCAR30-3-00%-1.832.17
Coleman OwenWRGB30-3-00%-1.51.5
Colston LovelandTECHI30-3-00%-1.832.17
Cooper KuppWRSEA30-3-00%-1.171.5
Corey KinerRBNE30-3-00%-1.51.83
Courtland SuttonWRDEN30-3-00%-1.832.17
Cyrus AllenWRKC30-3-00%-1.831.83
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI31-2-033.3%-1.172.5
Dak PrescottQBDAL30-3-00%-1.51.83
Dallas GoedertTEPHI30-3-00%-2.172.17
Daniel JonesQBIND30-3-00%-1.51.5
Darius CooperWRPHI30-3-00%-1.831.83
Darnell MooneyWRNYG30-3-00%-1.51.5
Darren WallerTECAR30-3-00%-1.171.83
David MooreWRCAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
DeAndre CarterWRDET30-3-00%-1.51.5
DeMario DouglasWRNE30-3-00%-1.51.83
DeeJay DallasRBMIN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Deion BurksWRIND30-3-00%-1.51.5
Denzel BostonWRCLE30-3-00%-1.51.5
Derrick HenryRBBAL30-3-00%-1.832.17
Devin DuvernayWRARI30-3-00%-1.51.5
Devin SingletaryRBNYG30-3-00%-1.51.83
Dohnte MeyersWRCIN30-3-00%-1.831.83
Drake LondonWRATL30-3-00%-2.172.5
Drake MayeQBNE30-3-00%-0.831.5
Dylan LaubeRBLV30-3-00%-1.51.5
Dylan SampsonRBCLE30-3-00%-1.51.5
Efton Chism IIIWRNE30-3-00%-1.51.83
Eli RaridonTENE30-3-00%-1.171.5
Eli StowersTEPHI30-3-00%-1.51.5
Elijah HigginsTEARI30-3-00%-1.831.83
Elijah MitchellRBPHI30-3-00%-2.172.17
Emmett JohnsonRBKC30-3-00%-1.171.83
Evan EngramTEDEN30-3-00%-2.52.5
Geno SmithQBNYJ30-3-00%-1.51.5
George HolaniRBSEA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Greg DulcichTEMIA30-3-00%-2.172.17
Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE30-3-00%-1.832.17
Hunter HenryTENE30-3-00%-2.172.17
Isaiah DavisRBNYJ30-3-00%-1.831.83
Isaiah LikelyTENYG30-3-00%-1.52.17
Isaiah WilliamsWRNYJ30-3-00%-1.171.5
J. Michael SturdivantWRGB30-3-00%-1.51.5
J.J. McCarthyQBNYG30-3-00%-2.172.17
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN30-3-00%-1.832.17
Ja'Kobi LaneWRBAL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN30-3-00%-1.52.5
Jahan DotsonWRATL30-3-00%-1.831.83
Jahdae WalkerWRCHI30-3-00%-1.51.5
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET30-3-00%-1.832.5
Jalen CokerWRCAR30-3-00%-2.172.5
Jalen NailorWRLV30-3-00%-1.832.17
Jalen RoyalsWRKC30-3-00%-1.51.5
Jameson WilliamsWRDET31-2-033.3%-1.172.17
Jared GoffQBDET30-3-00%-1.51.5
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL30-3-00%-1.832.5
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA30-3-00%-1.832.5
Jayden DanielsQBWAS30-3-00%-2.172.17
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN30-3-00%-1.51.83
Jerry JeudyWRCLE30-3-00%-1.831.83
Joe BurrowQBCIN30-3-00%-1.52.17
John Metchie IIIWRCAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
Jonah ColemanRBDEN30-3-00%-1.52.17
Jonathan MingoWRDAL30-3-00%-2.172.17
Jonathan TaylorRBIND30-3-00%-2.172.5
Jordan AddisonWRMIN30-3-00%-1.831.83
Jordan LoveQBGB30-3-00%-1.171.5
Jordan MasonRBMIN30-3-00%-1.831.83
Jordan WhittingtonWRLA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Josh CuevasTEBAL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Josh DownsWRKC30-3-00%-2.172.5
Josh JacobsRBGB30-3-00%-1.52.5
Justice HillRBBAL30-3-00%-1.51.83
Justin JeffersonWRMIN30-3-00%-1.51.83
KC ConcepcionWRCLE30-3-00%-1.171.5
Kalif RaymondWRCHI30-3-00%-1.831.83
Keenan AllenWRSF30-3-00%-1.831.83
Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC31-2-033.3%-1.172.17
Kenny GainwellRBTB30-3-00%-1.831.83
Kenyon SadiqTENYJ30-3-00%-1.831.83
Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMIA30-3-00%-1.171.5
Khalil HerbertRBATL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Kirk CousinsQBMIN30-3-00%-0.831.5
Ko KieftTETB30-3-00%-1.51.5
Konata MumpfieldWRLA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Kyle PittsTEATL30-3-00%-1.51.83
Kyle WilliamsWRNE30-3-00%-1.171.5
Kyren WilliamsRBLA30-3-00%-1.171.83
LaJohntay WesterWRBAL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Laquon TreadwellWRIND30-3-00%-1.51.5
Luke McCaffreyWRWAS30-3-00%-1.51.5
Luther Burden IIIWRCHI30-3-00%-1.172.17
Makai LemonWRPHI30-3-00%-1.832.17
Malachi CorleyWRCLE30-3-00%-1.51.5
Malachi FieldsWRNYG30-3-00%-2.52.5
Malik NabersWRNYG30-3-00%-2.52.5
Malik WashingtonWRMIA30-3-00%-1.51.83
Malik WillisQBMIA30-3-00%-1.832.17
Mark AndrewsTEBAL30-3-00%-1.831.83
Marvin Mims Jr.WRDEN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Mason TaylorTENYJ31-2-033.3%-0.831.5
Matthew GoldenWRGB30-3-00%-1.171.83
Matthew HibnerTEBAL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Matthew StaffordQBLA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Michael MayerTELV30-3-00%-1.51.5
Michael Penix Jr.QBATL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Michael WilsonWRARI30-3-00%-1.832.17
Mike GesickiTECIN30-3-00%-1.52.17
Mike Washington Jr.RBLV30-3-00%-2.172.17
Mitchell EvansTECAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
Myles PriceWRMIN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Nate AdkinsTEDEN30-3-00%-1.171.5
Nick MuseTEATL30-3-00%-1.171.5
Nikko RemigioWR—30-3-00%-1.831.83
Noah GrayTEKC30-3-00%-1.171.5
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIA30-3-00%-2.172.5
Patrick MahomesQBKC30-3-00%-1.831.83
Puka NacuaWRLA30-3-00%-1.52.5
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE31-2-033.3%-1.52.17
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS30-3-00%-2.172.5
Rasheen AliRBBAL30-3-00%-1.51.5
Rashod BatemanWRBAL30-3-00%-1.831.83
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE30-3-00%-1.52.17
Rome OdunzeWRCHI30-3-00%-2.172.5
Roschon JohnsonRBCHI30-3-00%-1.831.83
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL30-3-00%-1.51.83
Sam LaPortaTEDET30-3-00%-2.52.5
Samaje PerineRBCIN30-3-00%-1.171.5
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI30-3-00%-1.52.5
Savion WilliamsWRGB30-3-00%-1.832.17
Sean TuckerRBTB30-3-00%-1.51.83
Seth McGowanRBIND30-3-00%-1.832.17
Seydou TraoreTEMIA30-3-00%-1.51.5
Sione VakiRBDET30-3-00%-1.51.5
Stefon DiggsWRWAS30-3-00%-1.832.5
T.J. HockensonTEMIN30-3-00%-1.171.83
Tahj BrooksRBCIN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Ted Hurst IIIWRTB30-3-00%-1.51.5
Tee HigginsWRCIN30-3-00%-0.52.17
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR30-3-00%-2.172.5
Tez JohnsonWRTB30-3-00%-1.51.83
Tommy TrembleTECAR30-3-00%-1.832.17
Tory HortonWRSEA30-3-00%-2.172.17
Travis KelceTEKC30-3-00%-2.172.5
Tre TuckerWRLV30-3-00%-1.171.5
Trevor EtienneRBCAR30-3-00%-1.51.5
Trey McBrideTEARI30-3-00%-1.832.5
Troy FranklinWRDEN30-3-00%-1.51.5
Tucker KraftTEGB30-3-00%-1.832.5
Tyler AllgeierRBARI31-2-033.3%-1.52.17
Tyler ConklinTEDET30-3-00%-1.831.83
Tyler GoodsonRBDAL30-3-00%-1.831.83
Tyler HigbeeTELA30-3-00%-2.52.5
Xavier WorthyWRKC30-3-00%-1.831.83
Zavion ThomasWRCHI30-3-00%-1.51.5
Zay FlowersWRBAL30-3-00%-2.172.5
Aaron RodgersQBPIT20-2-00%-1.51.5
Alex BachmanWRLA20-2-00%-1.51.5
Alvin KamaraRBNO20-2-00%-2.52.5
Ameer AbdullahRBJAX20-2-00%-1.51.5
Andrew BeckRBNYJ20-2-00%-1.51.5
Austin HooperTEATL20-2-00%-1.51.5
Bam KnightRBARI20-2-00%-1.51.5
Barion BrownWRNO20-2-00%-1.51.5
Bauer SharpTETB20-2-00%-1.51.5
Ben YurosekTEMIN20-2-00%-22
All players, Touchdowns——94613-933-01.4%-1.591.81

Data as of 2026-11-13 01:15 UTCSource: Kelly's consensus closing line: each book's last price before the start, margin removed, then averaged; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0)Seasons 2026, regular season; each player-game graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart.Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples and left out of the ranks.A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.