NFL player prop history by player
Passing TDs props in the 2026 season: overs hit 41.1% of decided games against each game's own closing line (37-53-0 over-under-push, 39 players).
Passing TDs by player (39)
Each player-game is graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart. Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples. A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.
Showing (39) of (39) · Totals · Sorted by Graded, high to low · Compared with every player with 10+ decided games (0)
| Player | Pos | Team | Graded | O-U-P | Over % | Avg vs close | Avg close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50% | 0.25 | 1.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0% | -1.17 | 1.5 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.17 | 1.5 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.83 | 2.17 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 0.17 | 1.5 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.17 | 1.5 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.17 | 1.83 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -0.17 | 0.83 |
| Drake Maye | QB | NE | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100% | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.17 | 1.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | NYG | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.83 | 1.17 |
| Jared Goff | QB | DET | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.83 | 1.83 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100% | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Jordan Love | QB | GB | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100% | 1.17 | 1.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | QB | MIN | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 0.5 | 0.83 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 0.17 | 1.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | ATL | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -0.17 | 1.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | -0.17 | 1.83 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -1 | 1.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 2 | 1.5 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | CLE | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -1 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | BAL | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -1 | 1.5 |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0 | 1.5 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | LAC | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | -0.5 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | MIN | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0 | 1.5 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0 | 1.5 |
| Tanner McKee | QB | PHI | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -1.5 | 1.5 |
| Drew Lock | QB | SEA | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| Gardner Minshew | QB | ARI | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Joe Fagnano | QB | BAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Joe Milton III | QB | PHI | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -1.5 | 1.5 |
| Shedeur Sanders | QB | CLE | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100% | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB | BAL | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.5 | 1.5 |
| All players, Passing TDs | — | — | 90 | 37-53-0 | 41.1% | -0.01 | 1.42 |
Data as of 2026-11-13 01:15 UTCSource: Kelly's consensus closing line: each book's last price before the start, margin removed, then averaged; nflverse data (CC BY 4.0)Seasons 2026, regular season and playoffs; each player-game graded against that game's own closing line (Kelly's consensus before the start), main lines only, pushes counted apart.Rates under 10 decided games are marked as small samples and left out of the ranks.A prop's history is a count of past games against each game's own closing line: never an edge, a fair price or a pick.